Ben Coley previews the final round of the Hero Indian Open, where his headline pre-tournament tip is in second place.
Golf betting tips: Hero Indian Open final round
1.25ps MJ Daffue to win the Indian Open at 12/1 (General)
0.75pt Andy Sullivan to win the Indian Open at 25/1 (General)
Such is Eugenio Chacarra's comfort around DLF Golf & Country Club, if comfort is the right word, that the Hero Indian Open seems fully under his control ahead of the final round.
Thanks to good putts at the 15th and 16th holes to bounce back from a couple of earlier mistakes, the Spaniard will take a four-shot lead into Sunday as he seeks to defend the title he won from the front 12 months ago. It's no wonder he's the 8/15 favourite.
In fact there's an argument that the price is on the generous side. Players in his position win about 75% of the time so an implied 65% gives you a nice edge, before even considering that he's among the most talented players in a weak field and that the other two members of the final group haven't won. He has the best course form too, so Chacarra holds all the aces.
Nevertheless, it wouldn't be a straightforward decision for backers were they offered the chance to move the final round somewhere else. Yes, Chacarra has built up a fine course record in 11 rounds now, but this place is still treacherous and will one day catch him out. We've seen what the back nine has done to the world-class Akshay Bhatia twice already this week and nobody is immune from that threat.
The history of this event at DLF shows that three of four clear leaders have won (conforming to that wider 75% strike-rate) but among the eight players to have led or co-led entering the final round, just one has broken 70. Chacarra won't need to and last year's 71 would be enough, but there have been rounds of 73, 75, 77 and 78 by some good golfers and anything over-par could leave him vulnerable.
Having only recently returned from a break aimed at restoring his mental wellbeing and played so poorly in China last week, my sense is that Chacarra is worth opposing and yet having recommended Alex Fitzpatrick at 33/1 on Monday, going in again at 6/1 isn't all that appealing. He's playing very well though and making stacks of birdies, so I'm quite optimistic he can make a good game of this if starting strongly.
MJ DAFFUE has two recent wins at a lower level to his name and that can count for plenty, something demonstrated by his young compatriot Casey Jarvis, so at twice the price of Fitzpatrick he seems the value call.
Daffue is hard to weigh up as he's undoubtedly played some poor golf over the last couple of seasons, but he's also done something none of these has and been good enough to earn a PGA Tour card before. In fact I feel sure I put him up for this week's event, the Houston Open, at some stage in the past.
He's second only to the leader in par-five scoring and has the power to unlock eagle chances, while I expect the tee will be forward at the ninth and make that within range too. Daffue has definite blowout potential but there's upside for a win-only bet at double-figure prices, especially if you're already on Fitzpatrick. Having the other members of the final group at 12/1 and 33/1 gives us a nice go at the leader.
Among the chasing pack, Freddy Schott was disappointing when selected on these pages last week but has raw power and can hole the lot so he's respected, but Jarvis and ANDY SULLIVAN are the two to focus on if you're looking for a real flyer. Jarvis has been beaten by one golfer in his last three tournaments and is the obvious one but this is a nice make-up for Sullivan, winless in over five years but playing very well lately.
He won the South African Open from seven back entering the final round back in 2015, then won the Joburg Open by two from three behind, and of the leading six or seven there's nobody more capable of gaining a couple of strokes on the greens. One of his better days off the tee and Sullivan might feel this is a nice chance to be aggressive at a course where, for all the peril, you can make eight or nine birdies in 18 holes.
Sullivan has improved with each round and is the only player in the field to have broken par every day on the devilishly tricky back-nine. That ought to stand him in good stead if he heads to the 10th tee with a sniff and while we'll need help from the favourite, I can certainly see him playing his way into the position of chief threat. At 25s, he's worth a small go.
The best three-ball bets are arguably Thriston Lawrence and Kota Kaneko but this is a high-volatility golf course and I'm not especially interesting in a 3/1 double. Indeed you could probably perm up the biggest-priced outsiders on the coupon and hope to land a treble or two, but we'll stick to the more predictable top-end of the leaderboard and hope that the leader is more vulnerable than he may appear.
Posted at 14:20 GMT on 28/03/26
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