Martin Mathews assesses the state of play in the the ZOZO Championship, where Sebastian Munoz is backed to win his three ball.
Golf betting tips: ZOZO Championship
2pts Sebastian Munoz to win his three ball v Matsuyama & Tringale
At the start of the week three big names dominated the top of the betting at the ZOZO Championship, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama.
Schauffele has struggled to get going this week while Morikawa has crept onto the fringes of a big finish courtesy of a Saturday 67, however it is the home country hero Matsuyama who has pretty much dominated proceedings from the off and now heads in to Sunday with a one shot lead on 10-under par.
In blustery conditions, and on a track which has proven all week that if a circa 7000 yard layout is set up correctly it can challenge the game’s best, as he stood on the 18th tee on Saturday the Masters Champion had limited his mistakes all week to a lone bogey on Friday and another early in his third round.
However, a carved tee shot left into the trees on the easiest hole on the course led to a bogey six on his final hole of the day and in doing so opened the door for the chasing pack.
Despite that blip on 18 Matsuyama is of course still the outstanding favourite to take home the title, with a best price available of 4/5. Whether it will prove to be as straightforward for him as some might think though is another matter. He is undoubtedly the class act amongst those right in the thick of the hunt, but his win at Augusta is his only triumph in four years, so he can hardly be called a serial closer over recent times.
From a positive point of view his record on home soil is strong with eight wins to his name in his homeland, including chasing Tiger home here in 2019. More recently though he was a tad disappointing on Sunday at the Olympics having started the final day only a shot behind.
To sum up, Matsuyama should win and I expect he probably will, but I am certainly in no rush to back him at the odds on offer, particularly given he was tipped up at 14/1 in Ben Coley's outright preview earlier in the week.
In fact, the outright market makes little appeal, particularly with Matsuyama's nearest challenger being Cameron Tringale.
Tringale, who will start the day one back on nine under has been a regular in this column over the last 12 months or so, something which it should be noted is a testament to his really strong all round play. However, the likable Californian remains a maiden on the PGA Tour and cannot be trusted on a Sunday until he does finally get a win under his belt.
If we are to take the Japanese star on then that means we have to look to the trio of players who start the day in a tie for third, four shots back on six under: Sebastian Munoz, Brendan Steele and Englishman Matt Wallace.
With no one in the field though having bettered a four-under 66 over the past two days, for any of these three to win outright we are relying on one of them to either shoot an exceptional round, bettering anything we have seen on Friday or Saturday, or for Matsuyama to shoot over par, neither of which I am inclined to chance.
From that point of view then it’s a watching brief mostly for me. However, for those looking to have a bet I am tempted by the odds on offer for the final three-ball of the day, which features Matsuyama, Tringale and SEBASTIAN MUNOZ, with the Columbian the man who tempts me.
Based on my above overall thoughts about what will be needed to win here Matsuyama quite possibly will only have to shoot a one-under 69 or even level-par 70 to get the job done, and I expect him to go out with a mindset of firstly avoiding mistakes while looking to pick off the odd birdie if he can. Ultimately though he’ll be quite happy to shoot 70 and take home the trophy, so I am not anticipating any heroics from him.
That leaves us with Tringale and Munoz, and with my Sunday thoughts on Tringale already noted, I can’t for the life of me see why he is considerably shorter than Munoz in this match up. Granted he has been in far better form on the whole over the past year but that really counts for little on a Sunday when both players are having a strong week.
In addition, while Munoz has started the new campaign poorly we only need to go back a couple of months to when he closed strongly with a 67 to finish fourth in Japan at the Olympics, so he clearly enjoys himself in this part of the world. Furthermore, while it's been a couple of years we at least know that Munoz can get the job done on a Sunday at this level, unlike Tringale.
Like I have said already I don’t expect any of this to be enough for the Colombian to overhaul the home favourite, but I can see him posting a 68/67 to a 69/70 from Matsuyama, and if Tringale struggles that will be good enough to land the odds.