Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Sedgefield Country Club.
Golf betting tips: Wyndham Championship
3pts win Tom Kim at 3/1 (General - 4.3 Betfair Exchange)
2pts Matt Wallace for top-10 finish at 4/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
No-one was going to stop Cam Young in last year’s Wyndham Championship. He was five clear after 54 holes and completed a dominant six-shot victory a day later. It’s fair to say he’s rather kicked on since then although Young won’t be defending this year after scraping into the weekend and shooting over par on Saturday.
Prior to that, Sedgefield Country Club had been a good course on which to play catch up. Between 2019 and 2024, here’s how many shots back the eventual winner was from the third-round leader: 3-4-4-2-0-3. But, to add further context, in terms of leaderboard position, every Wyndham champion in the last 10 years has been in the top five with a round to go.
That hopefully simplifies matters at a time when numbers are flying everywhere. Not only is it a pretty bunched leaderboard but there are all sorts of FedEx Cup permutations being worked out as those around the bubble scramble to secure a spot in the top 70 who advance to the Playoffs.
And so to the third-round leaderboard where, conveniently given the above stat, we do have a clear top five. After some late weather delays, Michael Brennan and Beau Hossler emerged as the joint-leaders on 16-under, a shot clear of Tom Kim. Alex Smalley and Alex Noren are a further stroke back. In terms of the betting, it now reads 9/4 Brennan, 3/1 Kim, Hossler, 8/1 Smalley, 9/1 Noren.
The idea that performance on the greens is key here is backed up by the two leaders ranking 1st (Hossler) and 2nd (Brennan) in strokes-gained putting. Hossler kept saving himself with the putter in round three and the suspicion is that he can’t keep doing that – especially in the heat of battle on payday.
Brennan has been here before in the last few weeks but failed rather miserably. He’s turned 54-hole positions of second (Rocket Classic) and fourth (3M Open) into 15th and 24th after poor closing rounds. It’s a good theory that the best way to right those wrongs is to get in contention again quickly but the record of third-round leaders here isn’t good and I don’t like his price of 9/4.
The other angle is that both have the added pressure of trying to qualify for the Playoffs. Hossler has to win while Brennan could conceivably make the top 70 with a three-way tie for second. This could be argued in a positive, extra incentive, way but it surely adds to their mental battle.
Smalley and Noren are both yet to find a win on the PGA Tour. That will likely happen for Smalley but it’s a long time since the American won at any level and he’s only 44th for putting so far. Noren has been chasing it a while and his short game has been superb this week but 47th for strokes-gained approach is a concern.
That leaves us TOM KIM and although I’ve kind of got to him by process of elimination, I’d have been happy to put the Korean up even if some of his rivals had had stronger credentials. He jumped 11 spots up the leaderboard to solo third with a seven-under 63 on Saturday and is now in prime position to strike.
“I feel like I did a lot of good things well, hit a lot of fairways, got up and down when I needed to and I just kind of put one foot in front of the other,” said Kim. ”I took advantage when I needed to and I played pretty conservative when I needed to. Pretty solid day and hopefully I can put everything together tomorrow as well.”
Stats-wise, Kim ranks 4th for approach play and 8th for putting which looks a pretty killer combination. There are two obvious other selling points: his victory here in 2022 and his win at the Scottish Open just three starts ago. Both surely give him a serious psychological edge over those around him.
For a second bet, I’ll back MATT WALLACE at 4/1 to make the top 10. The Englishman, who was fifth at the Rocket Classic last week, was slow out of the blocks with a 71 but has added laps of 66 and 64 to reach tied 15th. That’s currently just a shot behind 11th and two adrift of those in tied eighth.
With a leap of 49 spots on the leaderboard yesterday, Wallace has given himself a shot at making the Playoffs. He’s projected at 77th going into Sunday so will be throwing absolutely everything at it. Coming home in 30 yesterday with much improved putting stats looks a good launchpad for the final round and he ranks 33rd in round four scoring this season.
Posted at 09:50 BST on 09/08/26
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