Akshay Bhatia remains clear of the field in San Antonio and should win but Dave Tindall is looking to the side markets for his best bet on Sunday
Golf betting tips: The Valero Texas Open Final Rd
2pts Lucas Glover for a top-10 finish at 23/10 (BetVictor)
0.5pts Lucas Glover for a top-5 finish at 11/1 (General)
Akshay Bhatia’s opening 63 on a course as tough as TPC San Antonio was always going to hold him in very good stead if he could consolidate it on days two and three. That’s exactly what he did on Friday, a solid 70 extending his lead to five strokes. On Saturday, it was even better than that, a 68 leaving him seven clear of everyone bar Denny McCarthy, who ended the day four back from the leader.
The 22-year-old Bhatia is now just 3/10 to win this and secure a second PGA Tour victory following his success at the Barracuda Championship last July. The omens are with him: Bhatia said earlier this week: “Presleigh, my fiancée, and I, we met here three years ago, so it's a special place to us.” Which, of course, brings Steven Bowditch to mind after the Aussie won another Texas event, the Byron Nelson, on the site of his wedding.
The stats are with Bhatia too. Strokes Gained: Tee To Green has been the best pointer in this event and he’s a mile clear in those, as well as being 1st for SG: Approach. Quite simply, I think he wins. They go off in three-balls today and Bhatia has winless McCarthy and short-hitting 38-year-old Brendon Todd (seven back) alongside. They’re hardly imposing figures.
Looking at history, four of the last six winners here had a piece of the lead after round three. The other two were second after 54 holes which helps bang the drum for McCarthy. Taking into account all 13 Texas Opens played at TPC San Antonio, the leader/joint-leader with 18 to play was successful eight times. All good news for Bhatia.
Martin Laird’s 2013 victory when the Scot overcame a five-shot 54-hole deficit and won by two gives hope to McCarthy and maybe Todd. Laird needed a Bhatia-style 63 to do that. Adam Scott at the inaugural edition played here in 2010 came from three back. He started the day in sixth while Laird was seventh. The other eight winners were all in the top three at this stage.
Of the 30 players who arrived at TPC San Antonio with Masters invites already in their pocket, 19 made the cut while 11 went home early. Of that former group it was always likely that a couple would make a move at some point and so they did on Saturday with two from the front 10 in the Masters betting - Hideki Matsuyama and Ludvig Aberg - powering into the top six via jumps of 30 and 28 places respectively. Matsuyama is eight back and Aberg nine. They’d need massive help from Bhatia, hence outright odds of 35/1 and 70/1.
Their 17:20 three-ball should be an interesting watch. Aberg is the narrow 13/8 favourite ahead of 7/4 Matsuyama, with third wheel Russell Henley 23/10 and possibly worth a go although this is one to enjoy rather than bet on. In the final three-ball at 17:30, Bhatia is 6/4, McCarthy 7/4 and Todd 2/1. I wouldn't put anyone off Bhatia although there is the angle - and this applies to the outrights too - that he hasn't punched his Masters ticket yet. That could add a layer of nerves although his mental approach this week has been excellent and he's been refreshingly open about the feelings involved.
As a quick aside, the winners of the four tournaments played before last year’s majors were Corey Conners, Jason Day, Nick Taylor and Rory McIlroy. The year before? JJ Spaun, K.H. Lee, McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. Does that help us decide who to bet in various markets today? Well, it does show that with two wins for McIlroy and one for Schauffele, it’s folly to think that the big names will be distracted in round four. So none of this “he’ll have his eye off the ball ahead of next week’s Masters” kind of thing.
So to a bet. Choices are somewhat limited given the state of the leaderboard but I do fancy one of my pre-tournament picks, LUCAS GLOVER, for a top 10 at 23/10 with BetVictor. Glover currently sits tied 11th with five others after rounds of 70-72-70. He advanced seven spots yesterday and I’m hopeful of an each-way return.
Glover ranks 5th for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green so far, the breakdown showing all-round strength: 19th Off The Tee, 13th Approach, 23rd Around The Green. Those are robust numbers; no smoke and mirrors here. Just four back from third place, he can continue his advance on Sunday.
His big problem has been the flatstick and his halfway SG: Putting stats were genuinely miserable. Glover ranked 122nd for SGP in round one and 137th in round two. But on Saturday there was a major uptick. The former US Open champion was 18th for SGP on his third lap and if he can maintain those levels, he could even match the fourth place he registered here in 2021.
Glover’s four closing rounds at TPC San Antonio are 69 (2019), 66 (2021), 71 (2022) and 69 (2023) so he has finished this event off strongly. With 14th and 18th as well as fourth it’s a course he likes and a top 10 at 23/10 is the way to go. The more ambitious could even look at top 5 at 11/1 and I’ll add a small play on that too.
Posted at 1012 BST on 07/04/24
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