Jason Daniels assesses the state of play in the Mallorca Golf Open, where Jeff Winther leads going in to Sunday.
Golf betting tips: Mallorca Golf Open
3pts Jorge Campillo to win at 7/2 (General)
1pt e.w Matti Schmid to win at 16/1 (1/5 1,2,3 General)
There was an awful lot of evidence with previous winners of this and similar events on the island that pointed to a distinct type of player suited to the test, but a calm first day's play soon knocked that on the head.
For the 'believers' including yours truly, Friday was a welcome change, the cross-gusts led to tougher conditions and initial thoughts revived. There, at last, all over the front page of the leaderboard was the Qatar, Portugal and links form that appear in most winners and most recent contenders of events at Mallorca - Darren Clarke, Chris Wood, Peter Hanson, Gregory Bourdy et al.
The two events thus far in Spain couldn't have been more different - the scoring possibilities at Madrid negated by a four day trial at Valderrama, and Mallorca should probably rest in-between given this could go either way. AccuWeather at the ready.
Going into payday, it's a decision of whether to go for low-scoring types in calm wind, softer greens and accessible pins, of which someone will no doubt shoot 63 and launch up, or judge it as most of the island's events. In the majority of inceptions, at different courses, most winners have been in contention overnight with Bourdy and Niclas Fasth holding their overnight lead whilst both Clarke and Hanson were in the final couple of two-balls at Pula before lifting the trophy.
We are amongst like-minded folk so let's face it, apart from a few exceptions most of the current top 20 find it very hard to win.
Halfway leader, Bryce Easton was entirely reliant on the short stick, being event-average for other aspects for most of his first two rounds. He'll enjoy any wind, having won three times on his home Sunshine Tour but he stole his last event (2018 Zimbabwe Open) with an off-the-pace 63 and is now in a position to do that again being five shots off the pace. It's unlikely, though, given he struggled off the tee on Saturday and the more receptive greens may actually be a negative given his apparent superiority when it was quicker through the first 36 holes.
Pre-event favourite Thomas Pieters' round today is indicative of the factors that European Tour punters face week-in-week-out. Talented enough to have won far more than four events in eight seasons, he made his move early with three quick birdies only to plod around for the rest of the day and record one-under. Such is the tale with so many that may shoot a mid-60 score tomorrow and ask 'What if?'
Shaky Soderberg?
Sebastian Soderberg messed up at Valderrama, let's face it. He could have - and should have - been in a play-off at least, having played superb golf through the first 16 holes of his final round. Standing on the 71st hole with a lead, his drive and subsequent chip-and-putt were indications of nerves, whilst bogey on the final hole was an obvious conclusion.
Winner at Crans, and at Kenya and Italy on the Challenge Tour, the Swede is clearly at home in windy conditions, has top finishes in Portugal and in Madeira and clearly likes this current run of events. He looked imperious at times on Saturday with iron play out of the top drawer but last week's collapse was a reminder of his similar error in Wales during the lockdown period when, again, he was error prone when it counted, and that just leaves a doubt. Small, but still a doubt.
If the Swede is a doubt at around 6/1, then maiden Jeff Winther is an absolute no-no at around 11/8.
Sure, the 33-year-old Dane was impressive on the penultimate day, an unanswered eight birdies bettering the 10 red figures and two bogeys from day one. Nobody can have any complaints if they agreed with the Lost Fore Words podcast that the pre-event 80/1 was too big, but it's now time to get out on the exchanges.
Can Winther hold his nerves?
Winther has little experience leading overnight, his only try resulting in an eventual third place finish on the Challenge Tour, but it's his overall Sunday record that hints he is a decent 'lay' tomorrow. In 25 starts inside the top-20 on a Sunday, he has lost position in all but three events, with an average fall down the board of over seven places.
Home fans must be confident of a second Spanish win on the three-tournament swing and followers of Ben Coley's pre-event column may also have a fun few hours on Sunday afternoon.
Alvaro Quiros, tipped at 80/1, carries an unexpected runner-up finish at Valderrama in his bag and his record in wind is well known and, after some solid recent efforts, the return to form at home is of no real surprise. Unlike Easton, the 38-year-old is putting in solid figures all-round rather than in just a single discipline.
The emphasis away from his driving (was once the longest driver on tour, if not the professional game) has meant a concentration on the whole game, it's paying off and he would fit very nicely into the roll-call of winners. If you are on at the advised price, there is little margin in going in now at around 7/1.
Similar comments apply to 200/1 poke, Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez. If the excitable 32-year-old is to win anywhere, it is likely to be around home, and all his best efforts read perfectly for here. However, here again is another that tends to lose position on a Sunday when in contention as he did at the Forest of Arden and Tenerife last year. Indeed, as discussed on the Lost Fore Words podcast last week, he tends to start events very well but seems unable to finish them. I'd prefer him to be a few off the pace and come with a 63 as when fourth in Kenya but this may be too much pressure when it counts, especially with a few compatriots around him. Nevertheless, what a win it would be!
Pitching in the Jorge Camp
Recent winners on tour have been from those in final groups - all of Danny Willett, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Matt Fitzpatrick were last off - and with reference to the previous comments on events here, JORGE CAMPILLO stands out from the rest.
Winner and runner-up at Qatar across both courses, fitting in nicely with form from the Iberdrola Open of yore, the 35-year-old would have been defending his Trophee Hassan title in a normal year - that particular event linking well with the like of Quiros, Clarke and Alejandro Canizares. Top finishes in Oman and South Africa also read well whilst his ability when it is a gettable island track were illustrated with a flying finish in Cyprus.
Unaffected by whatever the conditions, he will prefer a gust or two, but he'll play his game in whatever weather they face, ranking 14th and 13th for tee-to-green for the first two days and expected top-10 today, although final stats are yet to be released.
When winning both his events at this level, he defended his position in the final group, winning after a prolonged play-off at Education City and it can't harm that he won a junior event around here even if that was over 20 years ago. Memories are good, he is driving the ball very well, is putting nicely when it counts (ranks 10th for the week) and, unlike many, is one of the few players that will not be affected by being in the mix.
Campillo is driving the ball well in all conditions, is putting nicely on these familiar grasses, ranks tied-second for birdies this week, second also for the short holes and eighth for the 12 par-fours and looks the most likely to repeat his week's form on a trophy Sunday.
Matti's the man?
I had a good look at Alejandro Canizares for a top-10 finish given he is playing the final holes as well as anyone and may have memories of running-up at the Iberdrola event in 2010. He could have won the Dutch Open but for a bizarre decision off the final tee but that missed cut at his home Open and drop down the field at Valderrama was just enough to put me off the 4/1 on offer.
Instead, back up the main bet with MATTI SCHMID who starts in genuine contention for a first win in just 10 or so professional starts.
Twice winner of the European Amateur, his figures through the Dunhill Links and Dutch Open were impressive - top-15 for tee, approaches and therefore tee-to-green - and he perhaps would have won in the Netherlands bar one rough tee shot as the event came to the crunch, eventually beating Canizares by a place. The win won't be long for sure, he clearly plays well in the wind, has the length to destroy the shorter holes and has gone on serious birdie runs this week.
Starting one-over after three holes on Thursday, the 23-year-old then recorded seven unanswered birdies in his final 13 holes and looked like going bogey-free on Saturday before an error at another par-three. That potentially could be his nemesis going forward but he still ranks tied for birdies alongside Campillo, Quiros and Pep Angles despite still having a bit to learn.
The one from the top that has the most untapped potential, he misses the occasional easy putt but he's both aggressive and generally good with the short game and unlike many, carries no scar tissue from being beaten when in front. Whether Matti or Matthias, the general 14/1 looks fair, the odd 16s great value if those firms are available for you.
Posted at 2000 BST on 23/10/21
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