Matt Cooper previews the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open and has a three-ball double selection to consider.
Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open final round
2pts McNealy and Novak to win their three-balls at 5/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes)
“I hope the weekend gets harder,” said Justin Rose after firing a 62 for a one-shot first round lead on the easier North Course at Torrey Pines in the Farmers Insurance Open.
In one sense, it has. Playing the tougher South Course, he’s added rounds of 65-68. In another sense, it hasn’t because the 65 left him four shots ahead of the field and the 68 has him six strokes clear. The field has found it harder; Rose – relatively, at least – hasn’t.
It’s yet another astonishing performance from the 45-year-old Englishman who delighted the Open galleries as a teenager in 1997 and is now defying middle age with equal relish.
When he looked after Robert MacIntyre at the 2023 Ryder Cup the sense of Rose easing himself into an avuncular role was, it is now obvious, one for outside observers to conjure with rather than the man himself. The following year he flirted with the lead in the PGA Championship and produced an Open performance that, in other years, might easily have been good enough for victory. Last April he was at it again, very nearly winning the Masters and then relishing (and thriving in) the Ryder Cup dog fight in New York.
We see all that fun stuff and admire him. We get a glimpse, too (via social media), of all the hard work needed to get himself in these positions and he referred to it after this third round. “I always focus on my recovery,” he said. “Hydration, stretching, hot and cold plunge, stuff like that.”
He didn’t set a course record in the first round, he was one shy. But he has set new 36 and 54-hole tournament record and at 21-under 195 he has the 72-hole record total of 22-under in his cross hairs.
Alone in second, two shots ahead of the rest of the field, Joel Dahmen is doing pretty well this week. But he knows he’s having a good week while another fella is enjoying a tremendous one.
“My only hope is if he doesn’t set his alarm or he somehow starts hitting in the rough on the back nine,” Dahmen said. “The way he’s playing and what he’s doing, I would be pleased with second place.” The American also respects Rose’s work ethic: “He puts a lot of work into his body. His ability to still grind and practice when he’s got everything you could want from a career is really impressive. It’s almost inspiring for me. I’m seven years younger than him and I’m getting outdriven by more than 30 yards.”
Ryo Hisatsune and Si Woo Kim share third on 13-under, Max McGreevy is alone in fifth on 12-under with Stephan Jaeger, Maverick McNealy and Seamus Power tied sixth fully 10 blows in arrears of the pace-setter. Rose is 1/14, Dahmen best price 33/1 and it’s quite delicious to think that Jaeger – tied sixth remember – is as big as 700/1.
Rose is wary of complacency and was quick to point out that he won the 2017 HSBC Champions after Dustin Johnson had led the field by six at this stage. Torrey Pines has witnessed a few nightmare Sundays, too. In 2016 Scott Brown was tied for the lead, carded 87 and finished T49. Carlos Ortiz in 2021 was also a co-leader, shot 78 and ended the week T29. Rose is a better golfer than that pair and knows even a 74 would require a chaser to do something extraordinary. It can happen, but we’ll look elsewhere.
First up is MAVERICK MCNEALY to topple Seamus Power and Haotong Li in his three-ball.
The American has known good and bad on a Sunday at Torrey Pines but a 64 in last year’s re-arranged Genesis Invitational earned him second place and he also has second and fifth at Pebble Beach, and seventh at Riviera. His best golf is a good fit for the Californian coast and those gnarly Poa Annua greens. Power has only even missed the cut in this event before this week (five of them) and was T24 in last year’s Genesis. Li is making his course debut but his only final rounds at Pebble (2019 US Open) and Riviera (2018 Genesis) were 75s.
The 5/4 is a more than fair price for McNealy.
That notion of a golfer knowing good and bad at Torrey Pines is kind of inevitable. If the course were a road, the slippery-road-ahead sign would be on the walk to the first tee because once a skid starts, over-steering and getting into more trouble is entirely possible. It’s why individual records are littered with all sorts of scores.
ANDREW NOVAK notched some big ones in his early visits to Torrey Pines but he was third in this event last year and T13 shortly after in the Genesis. He’s up against Justin Lower and Ryan Gerard. The former’s previous course visits have reaped three missed cuts and a T43 so the in-form Gerard is the big threat.
He’s finished second in his last three starts, but those courses in Mauritius, Hawaii and Indian Wells were more free-scoring than Torrey. He can absolutely thrive this Sunday, but we’ll take Novak at 17/10. The double pays a tiny touch over 5/1.
Posted at 09:50 GMT on 01/02/26
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