Scottie Scheffler won the PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler won the PGA Championship

Golf betting tips: BMW Championship final round preview by Matt Cooper


Matt Cooper tackles Sunday's final-round action from the BMW Championship and is in no mood to oppose the brilliant Scottie Scheffler.

Golf betting tips: BMW Championship final round

3pts Scottie Scheffler at 9/5 (General)

1pt Kurt Kitayama top 10 at 14/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


Two years ago, Robert MacIntyre wandered around Marco Simone in Rome with the dazed look of a golfer who’d been unexpectedly promoted at the last minute from the Junior Ryder Cup team to the real thing. Luke Donald had anticipated as much and paired him with Justin Rose to whom he assigned an avuncular role, guiding the youngster through the wild highs and lows that the match always produces.

The Scotsman emerged with two and a half points from his three matches but never quite lost the startled appearance of a primary school kid who’d half endured and half enjoyed the most mental school nativity play ever.

Last year MacIntyre was a two-time winner on the PGA Tour and this year he has done enough to be considered a lock for Donald’s second team. On Saturday, he also warmed up for the task ahead at Bethpage Black in New York by not only withstanding a surge by his playing partner Scottie Scheffler, but also the American galleries in the third round of the penultimate event of the 2025 PGA Tour season, the BMW Championship at Caves Valley in Maryland.

Starting the day with a five shot advantage over the world number one, MacIntyre ended it four clear after draining a 41-foot birdie putt on the final green for a round of 2-under 68 that, together with his opening laps of 62 and 64, gives him a 16-under 194 total. Scheffler carded a 67 and is solo second, two strokes clear of Ludvig Aberg in third, with Sam Burns and Harry Hall sharing fourth on 8-under.

That late putt was not the only statement made by MacIntyre on the greens. He’s a huffer and puffer by nature that is somewhat reminiscent of his compatriot Colin Montgomerie. But, so far at least, the Oban man has discovered the knack of playing like Monty in the Ryder Cup rather than Monty Stateside in stroke play.

So it was that on the 14th green, moments after Scheffler had made a birdie and he had responded with a gutsy par putt, MacIntyre shushed a fan in the gallery.

“We’re in America, playing against their sweetheart Scottie, who I get on well with, he’s a great guy,” MacIntyre later said.

“I expected it today and I expect it again tomorrow. You give me crap, I’ll give you crap back. I’m not scared of that. It ain’t bothering me.

Explaining what the fan had shouted, he said: “He was just jeering. He was just shouting that I missed it, that I pushed it. Pushed it right in the middle of the hole, I guess.”

Managing his emotions in the bear pit is one thing, managing his game on a tough test is another, but he’s content about that, too. “It wasn’t the plain sailing of the first two days,” he said. “But I thought I done a good job.”

He leads the field for Strokes Gained Putting and ranks second for Approach. He’s also a handy 24th Off the Tee and 21st Around the Greens. Maintain that quality and he’ll be tough to catch.

Threat exists, however, and he explained why himself: “The slopes on the greens are so severe. It’s difficult to actually get to a lot of pin positions because they’re so slopey and quick.”

It’s a test that could unravel a lead quickly.

Scheffler made a good point lest anyone European become too pious about the gobby fans. “I heard some fairly choice words when I was leading in Ireland,” he said. “People have a tendency to say things that are dumb. I can think of a few things that were said to me in that final round that were very far over the line. It can be a little bit silly sometimes.”

The world number one makes for an intriguing case because he is a 17-time winner on the PGA Tour but every single one of them has come with Ted Scott on the bag (who this week is away dealing with family matters). In the Netflix series Full Swing Scott discussed joining up with Scheffler and how he told him: “I don’t know if I want to work with you because of your attitude.” Scheffler replied: “That’s fair, I’m willing to work on it.” Scheffler later revealed: “I used to fight anger issues. I used to get too frustrated. Golf was too important to me. It’s where I placed my identity for a long time.” Compare and contrast that with his pre-Open discussion about how winning, “isn’t the be all and end all."

He clearly changed something for the better after Scott joined him, but is the caddie also the vital link to that better mindset? Scott was not there during the third round in last year’s PGA Championship (when he stumbled) or last week’s final round (when he failed to convert). There are all manner of reasons why that is not down to Scott alone, but it’s worth pondering at the very least and today’s round will reveal more.

In terms of the betting, MacIntyre is 4/7, Scheffler 9/5, Aberg 20/1, Burns 150/1 and Hall 200/1. Four shots is a significant advantage, but it is also one that can be easily halved in one hole. Scheffler is relentless and MacIntyre has already expended a lot of physical and nervous energy.

I’d have them a touch closer and take SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER at the prices.

We’ll also take a punt that KURT KITAYAMA can find a wet sail. He got off to a slow start on Thursday (72) but has improved with 68-69 since then. He’s among those who started the week outside the top 30 (who progress to next week’s Tour Championship) and at T19 for the week he remains 35th in the rankings. He’ll need to go low but he has it in him.

He fired a second round 63 at TPC Southwind last week, was a winner of the 3M Open last month and Caves Valley is a Tom Fazio design – Kitayama has gone low at PGA National, Congaree and Victoria National in the past and they are also Fazio designs. As players just in the top 30 fret about staying there, Kitayama is the type who could burst through in the opposite direction. He’s 14/1 for a top 10.

Posted at 0905 BST on 17/08/25


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