Martin Mathews with his in-play advice ahead of the final round of the BMW Championship.
Golf betting tips: BMW Championship, final round
2pts win Xander Schauffele to win BMW Championship at 4/1 (General)
1pt e.w Collin Morikawa to win BMW Championship at 12/1 (Boyles 1/4 1,2,3)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The last two editions of the BMW Championship have given us a thrilling Sunday finish with extra holes required in each to find a winner and with just three shots separating the top seven players heading in to today’s final round it could well be more of the same this year.
Top of the tree heading into day four we have the defending champion Patrick Cantlay who sits on 12- under and one shot ahead of the field.
Cantlay who rode a red-hot putter to victory at the nearby Caves Club last year before wrapping up the whole Fedex Cup package at East Lake the week after, has got things done in a slightly different manner so far this week at Wilmington CC, ranking first from tee to green, second in approach play but only 30th with the flat stick.
Saturday saw Cantlay propel himself to the top of the leaderboard with a 65, the highlight of which was a hole out for eagle from 106yrds on the 14th. Equally though he missed three putts from inside 5ft to show he is certainly not completely comfortable on these greens.
Since winning at East Lake last year Cantlay has failed to bag a solo tour title with his only success coming alongside his close friend Xander Schauffele in the Zurich pairs event and it is Schauffele who coincidentally will keep Cantlay company today for the fourth day running as he starts one shot behind in second place on 11-under.
It is fair to say this duo have hardly been strangers to each other this year as, as well as bagging the trophy together at TPC Louisiana, they found themselves alongside each other in the final pairing on Sunday at the Travelers a couple of months back with, in a role reversal to today, Schauffele holding the slender one-shot advantage heading in to day four.
On that occasion it was the 2021 Olympic Champion who clung on for victory as Cantlay struggled and it proved to be the start of a great run of form for Schauffele as he went on to not only bag the prestigious JP McManus Pro-Am title the following week but also the Genesis Scottish Open the week after.
Refreshed now since that run and having blown the cobwebs off after a break at the Fedex St Jude last week Schauffele has the bit between his teeth again this week leading the field in approach play and sitting third from tee to green.
Confidence as we know in this game is a huge a factor and with Schauffele having found the winning formula again of late after his long winless drought, while Cantlay has struggled to close out events this year losing out in two play offs, I am happy to take Schauffele at the odds to continue his recent winning momentum and bag the trophy today.
Needless to say with so many players within striking distance this is far from a two-horse race with the penultimate two-ball seeing Scott Stallings, who also starts one back on 11-under, and Adam Scott who starts on 10-under.
Stallings, prior to missing the cut in Memphis last week, had been on a strong run of form and having been knocking on the door of a long overdue fourth tour win this season his chances of pulling off a shock should not be dismissed. Having never made it to East Lake though his priority today will surely be focused on producing the solid round he needs to achieve that goal and it is hard to see him taking too many risks down the stretch if the leaderboard is tight. Similarly, while Scott is way more experienced in this situation than Stallings having started the play offs outside of the top 70, a spot at East Lake will represent a great two weeks work for the Aussie.
On that basis then it is most likely the biggest threat to the final two-ball will come from the third last pairing out of Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa and at more than twice the odds of the Masters Champion it is the two-time major champion Morikawa who starts three back on 9-under who I will play alongside Schauffele today.
It’s been a sluggish season for Morikawa by his own high standards, however, after a couple of missed cuts in Scotland he appears to have found something in Memphis last week, which he has brought to Delaware. Sixth from tee to green and fourth in approach play this week the 25-year-old by his own admission has rediscovered his stock fade shot, which has served his so well over the last couple of years.
When on song Morikawa has proven to be superb at coming from off the pace on a Sunday, something we saw earlier this season at the CJ Cup, The Sentry and The Genesis Invitational and with three each-way places on offer today I am happy to take my chances.
World number one Scheffler starts one shot better off than Morikawa on 10-under and his chances of course should not be dismissed, however, he has really struggled with the flat stick over the past couple of weeks with the frailties rearing their head down the stretch again yesterday and overall so far in the play-offs he has had the look of a man who has been playing with a target on his back having held the number one spot coming in to the season's finale.
With plenty of sub plots to play out with the likes of Davis Riley, Sahith Theegala and Denny McCarthy looking to bag places at East Lake and all the riches which come with it, it promises to be a fascinating day and I am happy to sit back and watch the drama unfold while trusting Schauffele and Morikawa to bring home the spoils for us.
Published at 1015 BST on 21/08/22