Ben Coley previews the Valspar Championship, where a trio of midfield finishers at Sawgrass are backed to get in the mix.
Golf betting tips: Valspar Championship
3pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. JJ Spaun at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Sahith Theegala at 35/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Mac Meissner at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
The Valspar Championship may no longer be the final PGA Tour stop of the year in Florida, but it does represent the end of a dramatic four weeks of high-quality entertainment, culminating in a brilliant Players Championship. Thankfully, this event is suitably different, one for the purists you might say, and versus Doral to come it's certainly more subtle. For many, this is a hidden gem in the run up to the Masters.
How it'll fit in when the latest version of the Tour is revealed who can say, but hopefully there is still a place for the Copperhead Course. Widely praised by players, many of whom bemoan the timing of this tournament, it is an excellent test which can still challenge the modern golfer without having to go to the extreme lengths of the Blue Monster which returns at the end of April.
That test is balanced. Short and long hitters can compete here but a solid week off the tee via a mixture of clubs is required, and while the days of working the ball both ways are almost gone, you certainly need to be comfortable with holes turning one way and then the other. Statistically this is one of the toughest driving courses on the PGA Tour, and the challenge doesn't get much easier after that, with a heightened emphasis on the approach shot too.
The field is pleasingly strong and it features players like Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and defending champion Viktor Hovland who seemingly have no other reason to be here bar the golf course. Thomas in fact went as far as choosing to return in the unforgiving Arnold Palmer Invitational rather than something easier a week earlier, purely because he wanted to be sure he could stick to his Valspar commitment.
With Players runner-up Matt Fitzpatrick rounding out the head of the betting this is a good renewal of a fantastic event which so often serves up great drama. In fact since it returned to this March slot we've had a play-off, two one-stroke wins, and final-hole drama courtesy of newly minted Players hero Cameron Young's capitulation at the hands of Peter Malnati. How things can change.
That move in the calendar is an important place to begin as it coincided with the elevation of Bay Hill and has left the Valspar at the end of a four-week run in Florida. Granted, the big names have tended to play just two of the other three, but by the time they get here there's a chance they're ready for a break. Perhaps that explains why form hasn't carried over from Sawgrass very well, despite the courses being somewhat similar.
Last year, Hovland produced a brilliant back-nine to deny Thomas a week after he'd missed the cut. In 2024, Malnati had been 68th in the Players, with Young 54th. Taylor Moore won after a comparatively solid but still unspectacular 35th, with Tommy Fleetwood (27th) and Adam Schenk (MC) his main challengers. And, in 2022, Sam Burns improved on 26th at Sawgrass, beating two big outsiders.
This isn't much to go on though and, of course, not that many Players contenders tend to come here afterwards. This time all four of those mentioned were somewhat involved at Sawgrass, each of them inside the top 10 with a round to go and two of them, Schauffele and Fitzpatrick, going close to winning. It's ultimately quite difficult to know how each of them will respond to a high-intensity week in Jacksonville.
That said, Hovland didn't strike the ball particularly well, Fitzpatrick has to recover from being one ahead with two to play and losing, while it still feels early for Thomas on his third start after six months out. He said last week his goal is still to 'get through' to Augusta and even at prices that are bigger than usual for one with such an affinity for this course, it'd be a brave choice to side with him.
By process of elimination and by virtue of an excellent course record, Schauffele would be the pick of the four but he's there to be taken on at the prices and I'll do so with his close friend who has been rather left behind, PATRICK CANTLAY.
He's without a top-10 finish in six starts to begin the year and has questions to answer, but there was more promise at Sawgrass last week. Not a course he's typically fared well upon, Cantlay finished strongly for a midfield finish that could look the ideal preparation, and most aspects of his game were solid.
The main question mark concerns his approach play, which has regressed after an encouraging start to the year, but I felt he showed a lot more over the closing holes on Sunday and it could be that he's found something to work with. He was largely good during the final round but especially so during the back-nine and came within a whisker of three birdies in a row to finish.
Returning to Copperhead is perhaps a sign of where he feels he is heading towards Augusta, but it could prove to be a brilliant move. He was runner-up here in 2017, soon after his return to the PGA Tour, and with parallels to Riviera and TPC River Highlands, courses he loves, Copperhead is a nice fit on paper.
Often described as being somewhat Carolinas in style, rather than a course with classic Florida qualities, it's notable too that Cantlay's best major performance came in North Carolina while he has an exceptional record at Harbour Town in South Carolina. Former Valspar champion Kevin Streelman is one who helps tie all these courses together and he once directly compared this place with Harbour Town.
I fully appreciate that Cantlay has become disappointing and the next six months feel significant in his career, as right now he wouldn't merit a Presidents Cup place and his world ranking has drifted out to a shocking 35th. However, I'm not ready to give up on him just yet and am drawn to this sense of good timing and good golf course, after definite hints of promise in the Players.
It's worth remembering that approach play has been the best part of Cantlay's game over the last couple of seasons and it's been a downturn with the putter which has caused him problems. After a weekend of good putting at Sawgrass, a return to his usual ball-striking standards could have him primed, fresh, and ready to remind us all of his qualities.
Akshay Batia was an excellent 13th there despite a bit of a nightmare around the greens, a nice reminder of how fickle this game is after it was his otherworldly short-game that earned him the biggest win of his career at Bay Hill.
One of the form players in world golf right now, he and Schauffele are the two I fear most but I'm just a little wary of it having been an intense fortnight. Perhaps it won't matter – Bhatia is young, and his first two wins came at the end of four-week runs – but with the Masters coming up he'd be forgiven for not being mentally on it here.
Anyone who does like playing cross-tour doubles could consider perming these two with Angel Ayora and Wenyi Ding in the Hainan Classic but after giving that plenty of thought myself, I'm content to let it go.
Spaun over Spieth
Jordan Spieth is a past champion and this is what you might call a Jordan Spieth course. He loves traditional, tree-lined layouts – Augusta, River Highlands, Harbour Town, Colonial – and has so often played well here, including 12 months ago. I was taken with the way he spoke about his game last week and but for a horror third round with the putter he'd have been close to the top 10 at a course he often struggles with.
The big negative is his driving and that's ultimately enough to dissuade me from siding with him. It was the driver which ultimately kept him out of contention in this last year having previously underpinned his success in the event, and right now it's his problem area. That's not always been the case despite his reputation but having lost strokes in four of his last five starts, more of the same will make life especially difficult here.
It's possible that improves at a course where driver isn't used all that often, but I prefer JJ SPAUN, in part because of how much more reliable he is off the tee.
Young's win last week was on the face of it a strong argument for simply siding with the form players, as he'd never played well at Sawgrass but is at the top of his game. It followed red-hot Bhatia's victory at Bay Hill, too, and I am certainly aware of the risks of over-complicating things.
But let's not forget Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose and Nico Echavarria all won after poor performances in the weeks before and over the past fortnight, Daniel Berger and Fitzpatrick looked like they'd do so as well. Even Chris Gotterup in the Sony Open had last been seen trailing home 18th of 18 in the Hero Challenge, while over in Europe it was MC-MC-1 for Dan Bradbury.
I suppose what I'm trying to say is that there's always mileage in looking beyond the obvious, where you'll often find the real value, and that's how I feel about Spaun's prospects even if he doesn't leap off the page from either a course or current form perspective.
On the course, it's a great fit even if three missed cuts in four say otherwise. His first came way back in 2017, then returning in 2021 he'd missed seven of nine cuts and hadn't cracked the top 60, while in 2024 he'd missed five of seven cuts since the resumption in January with a best of 54th. He just wasn't going to play well anywhere during these spells.
When he arrived playing reasonably, in 2022, he ranked as the number one ball-striker in the field and then went on to win in Texas next time, so while 24th place isn't much to go on at face value, it seems to confirm my belief that Copperhead is a really good course for an ultra-reliable driver known throughout his career for hitting fairways and greens for fun.
We saw more evidence that it should suit during his career-defining 2025 season, too. Alongside his win in the US Open, Spaun was third at Waialae, second at PGA National, second at Sawgrass, sixth at Colonial, second at Southwind, and sixth at Silverado. This is a great collection of comparable golf courses, all of them traditional and tree-lined bar PGA National here in Florida.
Colonial is perhaps the pick of them from a correlating form perspective and Spaun's top 10 at a place he'd struggled with previously shows how much has changed, but even the US Open itself strikes me as potentially informative. Who knows, but two-time Valspar champion Burns looked for a long time like he'd win, Hovland was third, and Young was fourth.
It's possible to argue that Spaun's quiet start to 2026 represents the end of this golden run but there were some clear positives at Sawgrass, where he saw the putts drop for the first time all year. More importantly, having gained strokes with his approaches at Bay Hill he took another big step forward to rank 12th thanks to day-to-day consistency, while he was good off the tee as he generally is.
That should be a real confidence booster for a player with a great statistical profile for this and it won't take much more for it to translate to a big week here in the Valspar. And as none of this is right there in front of you, he's further down the betting than he perhaps ought to be.
At around the same odds, SAHITH THEEGALA comes with plenty of upside.
Straightforwardly, Theegala is fit and healthy and playing very good golf again. He has three top-10s in eight starts this season and the amount of golf he's played is a great demonstration of how he's feeling having missed chunks of 2025, which he called a 'lost season'.
Last week saw the best and worst of Theegala, who led after round one then shot 74, bounced back with an excellent 68 and then shot 77, but there were plenty of positives and he's feeling really good about his driver. It let him down a bit at times but his numbers coming into Sawgrass had been solid and I won't dwell too long on what happened at such a penal course.
Success this week may well depend on what he does off the tee but he's gained strokes in both previous starts at Copperhead, the sort of twisting course that I feel sure will appeal to him visually. Theegala is a shot-maker and we saw that when runner-up at River Highlands in his rookie season, with two subsequent top-fives at Harbour Town and a strong record at Colonial all helping to underline it.
Here at Copperhead he was seventh on debut despite having shot rounds of 73, 79, 74, 79 over the previous two weeks in Florida, then after three years away he was a solid 36th last year, again after a couple of poor performances. Given that he went the entire season without a top-10 finish, that was a good effort during a difficult period.
He returns now with his approach play having caught fire and his short-game also improved, so if you can forgive a poor final round in The Players then he has to make plenty of appeal.
Outsiders on the radar
Austin Smotherman is a real flusher who I sided with at 225/1 in the Farmers six weeks ago, despite having been eighth the week before. I can't help but feel he's been well-found now at 50/1 in a similar-strength field although the fact he's shown promise on two previous Valspar starts, and has winning Korn Ferry Tour which ties in with some Valspar contenders, does make for a solid case.
Outsiders on the radar included Zach Bauchou, who has made every cut so far this year and has experience of this golf course, and Chandler Blanchet, who we were on two starts ago in the Cognizant. Blanchet missed the cut narrowly after a promising start and went on to finish second a week later in Puerto Rico, where he talked about improvements to his putting which were most certainly needed.
He's another who has played this course a few times before as has Luke Clanton, placed in Puerto Rico and 'trending' according to his Instagram account. Clanton has gone close to winning on the PGA Tour already, hails from Florida, and has only really been struggling with the putter. As with Blanchet, it's hard to know how much better he was last time out and harder still to know what to expect this week.
Another name I considered was that of David Ford, a bit of a project on these pages having shown some promise when selected at 250/1 for the Sony and a much shorter price for the Cognizant. He missed the cut by one as a late alternate at Sawgrass and the left-hander, who went to college in North Carolina, has stacks of amateur form at similar courses, plus some strong ball-striking numbers and even hints of short-game promise last week.
All four of those are worth a second glance if you're looking for another long-odds contender in an event which seemingly always produces a couple, but I found them all easier to overlook than I did Sungjae Im. Fourth here on debut and in the mix early on his next visit, this is a great course for the Korean and he missed the cut by just one shot on his second start back from injury last week.
With slightly better strokes-gained approach numbers and some positives noises coming from his caddie, could he emulate Thomas and suddenly find himself in contention so soon after his return? Maybe, and at three-figure prices in some places there's certainly a carrot being dangled. I could see him playing well to a point.
But in search of the winner I'll stick to a squad of four more likely champions, completed by MAC MEISSNER.
That may seem a slightly curious statement given he's yet to win and his last two starts have ended in missed cuts, but this is a player who looks ready to break through in 2026 and there are few if any courses at which he's more likely to do so.
Meissner was 26th on debut, gaining strokes in all departments for the standout result of his rookie season to that point, then finished 28th last year when his form coming in amounted to virtually nothing. Again, his performance in this tournament marked a big step forward.
This time he might have stumbled a bit over the past couple of weeks but before that had been a good 18th in Phoenix to complete a run of four cuts made in four appearances, following on from a run of seven in a row from July to the end of the 2025 season.
That sequence included a standout runner-up finish to Young in the Wyndham, another traditional if shorter and easier golf course, while he's been fifth and 28th on two starts at Colonial. That looks an especially good guide not just thanks to the likes of Spieth, Burns and a handful of other elite golfers, but Schenk, Davis Riley, Bud Cauley and a fair few lesser ones as well.
Meissner has also continued to strike the ball well, particularly his approach shots, so we're looking for putting improvement. He is inconsistent with this club but gained strokes in round two at Sawgrass and has enjoyed some of his better weeks on bermuda greens at Sedgefield, as well as ranking above average in the RSM and Sanderson Farms last year.
Born and raised in South Carolina, conditions should be ideal for a former Walker Cup player I rate quite highly, and last week's missed cut by a single shot isn't too concerning. Down in grade and back at a course he's really taken to, I expect him to show plenty more.
Posted at 12:00 GMT on 17/03/26
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