Scottie Scheffler can win his second FedExCup and perhaps secure the PGA Tour Player of the Year award in the process, says Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Tour Championship
6pts win Scottie Scheffler at 7/2 (General)
By now, it's widely accepted that this version of the FedExCup Playoffs is hugely flawed. In fact, it's without doubt the worst iteration of a model which has survived almost two decades in various guises, each an attempt to fix the faults of its predecessor, each creating new ones in the process. Thankfully, we are nearing the end and the PGA Tour's promise of a match play finale from 2028 is genuinely exciting.
To remind those who may not recall exactly where we stand today, gone is the staggered start which will be remembered as the nadir of this project. That it happened to produce one of the more memorable renewals of the Tour Championship is moot; the nature of the system made wide-margin winners much more likely and cut a small field even smaller, the performance of most players insignificant to anyone but themselves.
Gone, long gone, is the hybrid system, the best of a bad bunch; that which allowed Tiger Woods to create a spectacular scene in 2018 but still rewarded Justin Rose for his Playoffs excellence. This was a system designed to avoid a previous scenario in which a player could wrap things up before the finale, but it never quite caught on, partly because it was never communicated properly through commentators and pundits.
What we're left with is the Tour Championship, 30 players starting at level-par with 72 holes to navigate, except that the winner is also crowned FedExCup champion. This system enabled Tommy Fleetwood to achieve something incongruous when, last year, he simultaneously won his first ever PGA Tour title and the FedExCup. There could've been no more popular winner, nor one so fitting for this shambles of a project.
Fleetwood has earned the right to defend his title by qualifying without winning again and is one of five players priced 20/1 or less who would be collecting silverware for the first time in 2026. That's a good chunk of the head of the betting and prospects of a repeat have perhaps been strengthened by news that SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER was battling hand, foot and mouth when quickly beaten in last week's BMW Championship.
Parents among you will recoil immediately at the mere mention of such a transmittable illness and as one myself, I will admit to a sense of schadenfreude upon reading that Scheffler will play with Matt Fitzpatrick in Thursday's first round. Fitzpatrick is due to become a parent next month and will not thank his playing partner if he receives a bit of impromptu training in the art of finding the nearest point of relief.
Much depends on Scheffler's condition but it'll be more than 10 days since he showed symptoms when the Tour Championship begins and he departed Bellerive feeling much better, the blisters on his hands no longer bothering him. After a slow start which saw him last on the leaderboard early, he very nearly salvaged the job with a top-10 finish (eventually 12th) and performed comparably with the champion from Friday onwards.
I therefore struggle to understand why he's been eased in the betting again, I'm afraid. Scheffler was 3/1 versus 49 opponents last week and has 29 to beat this time, at a course he knows (versus one he didn't), and one which is better set up for him. Bellerive was largely a test of power and while he had next to no chance in the condition he was in regardless, the make-up of the course was against him too.
East Lake, where he was second on debut, fits like a glove. In fact there are parallels with Southwind, where he was an eight-shot winner two weeks ago, in that he's gradually figured out these greens and therefore knocked loudly on the door. His scoring average since he began putting better (coinciding with a significant restoration) is an absurd 66.25, two strokes better than Rory McIlroy's. He's done everything but win at the course and that includes sort of winning, when he was given a head start.
Given that victory may be required in order to win the Player of the Year award he undoubtedly covets, Scheffler has every reason to end this strange campaign on a high at what remain generous odds. Again, he won by eight two weeks ago in a field of 70, and we're to excuse last week's performance for the reasons given. Had this tournament immediately followed Southwind, he'd have been quite a bit shorter than he is.
Believe it or not, Scheffler was a 7/4 shot for last year's Tour Championship and I'm afraid odds of 7/2 are too big to my eye. In a miserable year for this column, the world number one has been the one positive on the PGA Tour, losing a play-off when selected at 9/2 and winning by a distance when selected at 5/1. We have to take the chance to back him before the market catches up.
There are, of course, dangers, including McIlroy. He's been the low scorer here three times in 12, returned to form when contending last week, and is chasing a fourth FedExCup which would extend his record. But it was a tough finish for McIlroy at Bellerive, where he had every chance to take control at a course made for his game, and he's been trimmed as a result despite still looking a little below his best.
Scheffler beat him over the final 54 holes despite the blisters and he beat Xander Schauffele, another course specialist, over the full 72. It's been a strange year for Schauffele, who failed to qualify for the Presidents Cup side, but this is a decent chance to bag his first FedExCup given that he won at East Lake on debut and has been the low scorer three times in total. I rate him as big a threat as McIlroy and better value as a result.
Ludvig Aberg has been disappointing on both course starts and a return to bermuda greens could be a negative for Collin Morikawa, who putted so poorly at Southwind as he did at Doral earlier in the year. That club won Fleetwood the title last year but has cost him lately, as it has Patrick Cantlay, whose customary Playoffs push should now earn him a Presidents Cup place regardless.
Cantlay looks solid, but I'd remind readers that Scheffler's price is just a fraction shorter than it was for the US Open and about the same as it was for the Masters. These are events for which Cantlay could've been backed at three-times the price he is now and this contraction that's applied to all the main dangers has somehow eluded Scheffler, who once more rates the clear value choice after the most dominant victory by any golfer all season two weeks ago.
For a while at Southwind the dual forecast with Viktor Hovland looked on and I'd be tempted to try again in this much weaker field, only this time with Schauffele and Russell Henley. Scheffler's potential Presidents Cup partner was 12th on an unsuitable course last week, where he was unable to keep up off the tee. Here, he's been second, third and fourth in just five tries and can prove one of the key threats now there's a greater emphasis on accuracy.
Henley is a general 22/1 shot without Scheffler with the Flutter brands, which is one option to consider along with dual forecast prices of 50/1 or so. The Scheffler-Schauffele dual-forecast is around a 25/1 chance. But in the end it would've been better to keep things as simple as possible at Southwind, so let's do that, with the promise of some more creative thinking when weaker fields demand it next month.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 25/08/26
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