Two Zurich Classic teammates head Ben Coley's staking plan for this week's PGA Tour event in Texas, where two home-state heroes head the betting.
Golf betting tips: CJ Cup Byron Nelson
2pts e.w. Davis Thompson at 35/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Austin Eckroat at 45/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Adrien Dumont de Chassart at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Erik van Rooyen at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
0.5pt e.w. double Jordan Spieth and Thomas Detry at 220/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
It's 40/1 bar four on the PGA Tour this week and that's despite a full field for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, a tournament title which must surely go down as golf's very worst portmanteau.
The reason for this lopsided market is primarily the presence of Scottie Scheffler, who won by a record eight shots in a record 31-under last year. That was before he'd doubled his tally of majors and, in the same form and at the same golf course, he'd likely justify quotes as short as 6/4.
Is he in the same form? Arguably, as it's easy to forget (I did it recently) that this was his first victory since the Hero Challenge almost five months earlier and his four spring title defences had been unspectacular. This event in his native Texas is where the entire year took off and from the Nelson through to the Procore in September, he won six times in 12.
As of today, Scheffler is on a run of nine events without a win and has suffered some putting problems in both recent starts so he isn't at his absolute peak. But he wasn't at his absolute peak before turning up here last year and laying down a marker for the summer ahead with the most dominant victory of his career, albeit nowhere near the most impressive.
Is the golf course the same? Well, sort of. Lanny Wadkins has redesigned Craig Ranch, with significant changes to grasses and greens, some additional bunkering (referred to as 'strategic', as golf architecture press release law demands), and a general attempt to make things that little bit tougher without forgetting that the PGA Tour comes here once a year, whereas members might play it twice in a single day.
Those changes, which include making the 12th a short par-five and the 18th a long par-four where they both previously played the opposite, should have the desired effect. However, it's unlikely the fundamental challenge changes significantly and I doubt 20-under is suddenly going to become sufficient. This is still a shootout at a course with wide targets, simple greens, and no particular formula on the face of it.
Perhaps the best summary is in Taylor Pendrith's defeat of Ben Kohles two years ago as, apart from both being hopeless with the putter at times, they are very different: Pendrith effortlessly long, Kohles anything but. Their respective putting woes clearly weren't a problem back then but as is so often the case in these sprints, a rounded long-game was key. Pendrith was able to cover for some iffy approach play with his driving and work around the greens, but he's a bit of an outlier. Besides, Kohles ought to have won.
Back to Scheffler, what else can we say? Taking less than 2/1 about a player who ranked 71st of 82 players in putting last week is obviously risky, but that's not to say I expect the putter to stop him winning. In fact were he to repeat last year's ball-striking in this event, he'd win anyway, and this eight-round putting funk is unlikely to last for too much longer.
Beat him, and you have every chance of winning the tournament.
Maybe Jordan Spieth can do that and hand on heart, if Scheffler hadn't turned up I'd find it hard to ignore him. That brings in the option to play the without Scheffler market at 12/1 and if he hits the ball as well as he has in both majors this season, the former top man in Texas may well add to three top-10s in four course visits so far.
These two look the clear pick of the favourites and for small money there's a case for perming one or both with Thomas Detry in Belgium, very much the last name off my list there. It's 33/1 the favourites' double, Scheffler and Detry, and 220/1 for Spieth instead.
On balance, in the midst of a really poor start to the year, I'd rather play the latter to small stakes than advise a decent bet on Spieth but as far as the each-way value goes, DAVIS THOMPSON is first.
A top talent who went toe-to-toe with Jon Rahm early on in his PGA Tour career, he can give Scheffler (and perhaps Spieth) a run for his money this week if building on some better golf of late.
Thompson looked like he might make into a Ryder Cup candidate for Bethpage after dominating the John Deere Classic two summers ago, but putting woes throughout 2025 put a pin in that. He was seldom terrible, but having been elite at various points in all other facets of the game, he managed three decent putting displays in 27 starts.
That meant for a lost year in the career of a player long considered to carry world-class potential and another rotten run with the putter undermined much of his work early in 2026, the only exception coming when he dropped in grade to finish fourth in Puerto Rico. That's another clear indication of his class but he wasn't able to build on it through spring.
However, things have turned since the beginning of April. He didn't hole much but showed signs of improvement with 14th in the Texas Open, then putted as well as he has in a long time in the Zurich Classic. And while that alone would be hard to trust given the format and how messy the data can be, gaining strokes in the Myrtle Beach Classic might just set him up to be competitive again here.
It does worry me that he putted poorly here in both 2023 and 2024 but Thompson produced exceptional driving numbers in both and was in awful form coming into the first of them, with his play ahead of the second no more than solid. Hopefully, tougher conditions help but I have no concerns from a tee-to-green perspective, anyway.
He has form at other desert courses in the AmEx (second), Shriners (fifth, 12th) and Phoenix Open (15th), has also been runner-up in a low-scoring Rocket Mortgage Classic together with that win at the John Deere, and he has top-25 finishes in the other three PGA Tour events held here in Texas. If that putter continues to improve, he should be up to contending in what's a weak field behind the favourite.
Double up with two-time winner
AUSTIN ECKROAT was Thompson's playing partner in New Orleans and he too is rounding nicely into form.
Sixth there having been 10th in the Texas Open beforehand, he added 19th in the Myrtle Beach Classic last time, when not putting as well as he had in previous weeks. That club comes and goes but five positive displays in nine measured starts this year give us something to work with, and he led the field when runner-up in this tournament three years ago.
That was Eckroat's breakout PGA Tour performance and he's since gone on to win twice, first at PGA National and then in Mexico, at a low-scoring event where wide fairways made it more about the second shot. That's fine for a straight driver and in gaining 0.78 strokes per round off the tee in six rounds at Craig Ranch, significantly up on his career average, he's shown how comfortable he is here.
As with Thompson I don't think tougher conditions would be anything but welcome for a player whose precision approach play is his strength and it's been good to see some improvements around the green lately, enough to rank third and 12th on his last two individual starts.
Note that despite missing the cut on his return to Craig Ranch last year it was actually his best ball-striking performance of a season undermined by short-game issues, so rather than undermine his runner-up finish behind Jason Day, it supports the notion that this is a good golf course for him.
Significantly, Eckroat telegraphed both previous wins with quality iron play in the weeks before and he's gained strokes in all bar one start this season, with his two best performances having come within his last four starts. He seems primed to go well at what's in effect his local event, having grown up a couple of hours away in Oklahoma, played here as a junior, and attended stacks of tournaments in Texas.
Friends and family were with him when he won in Mexico and he might be able to deliver for them again this week.
Pierceson Coody is even more local and this will be his fifth appearance in the tournament. That's a level of familiarity he doesn't carry with him anywhere else on the PGA Tour and could help to convert potential into what seems an inevitable first win, but his ball-striking has been poor since the start of March and that's just too big of a concern.
On his early-season form, which featured four top-20s in five including two in the desert, Coody would be a massive threat here, and I am aware that he's played a lot of golf at a higher level since. However, both he and Michael Thorbjornsen have cooled since they were selected for the Houston Open on these pages and while the latter contended there, he's less suited to this challenge.
Preference then is for ADRIEN DUMONT DE CHASSART, who came through US Open qualifying on Monday to continue a good run of form.
The Belgian has now made seven cuts in a row since the beginning of March, the highlight 12th in Houston, and as well as being good around the greens he's started to dial in his approaches. Dumont de Chassart has gained shots with his irons in six of his last seven measured starts and with the putter better than it's been in an age, everything appears to be coming together.
That's not quite true of his driving, it must be said, but while power doesn't seem a big advantage here, the course shouldn't punish waywardness in the way Dunes did in the Myrtle Beach Classic. That really was the only weakness in his game there and if we can get something closer to average, the rest can carry him a long way into this tournament.
Dumont de Chassart was 30th here during his rookie season, that being one of his stronger performances, and since then he's dropped back down to the Korn Ferry Tour and won in an absurd 33-under. With his first victory at that level having been in 21-under, a shootout looks perfectly suitable and with a second US Open appearance now in the bag, he should be raring to go.
Kim close but van Rooyen value
Tom Kim also came through that qualifier in style and has to be respected after a back-to-form top-10 finish in Myrtle Beach.
With two desert wins to his name at Summerlin and having been 17th here as a teenager without PGA Tour status four years ago, this ought to be a good fit for the Korean youngster, and he's in better shape than when missing the cut last year.
Kim currently ranks 36th on Tour in strokes-gained approach but that's having been 140th of 175 players coming out of the Farmers, since which time he's produced consistently good work with two of his last four starts seeing him rank sixth and second.
His numbers in the Myrtle Beach Classic were his best since he finished 17th in the Scottish Open last July and became a fairly popular each-way bet for the Open the following week, and with his driving also improved he looks to be heading back in the right direction.
As with Thompson, backers need him to build on a better putting week last time out but that seems likely after an excellent weekend's work in that event followed by smooth passage into the US Open field. And the fact that he's based in Dallas might mean he's had a sneak peak of the changes to the course, hence I can see why he's been popular.
Unfortunately, that's resulted in the early 80/1 having long since disappeared and with 50/1 no more than reasonable, I'll move down the market to side with South African pair CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT and ERIK VAN ROOYEN, ahead of rank outsider Nick Dunlap.
Bezuidenhout played well on debut here in 2022, in fact it was his best golf of the year to that point, and returned to finish 23rd on his sole subsequent visit. Both were the product of quality approach play and putting, staples of his game, and that's the formula I'd lean towards at a course like this one.
He has a PGA Tour winner's cheque courtesy of second place in the AmEx behind Dunlap, who was an amateur at the time thus unable to collect it, and at a suitable course his price feels out of line. He's right on the cusp of DataGolf's top 50 and compared to Kim, who is outside the top 100, I'm at a bit of a loss as to why he's the one quoted at the bigger price.
They tied for sixth in Myrtle Beach, Bezuidenhout then went and performed well in a major, and he has the superior course form so far. To my mind he's just not a fashionable player but he can compete here and won't find many more suitable opportunities.
Van Rooyen meanwhile endured a miserable start to the year but he's been putting well at least and, crucially, his long-game looks better. Last time out saw him produce his best approach play in six months and he's always been a good mid-to-long iron player, which is handy at a course with zoysia fairways which, while straightforward, doesn't offer up that many wedges.
It was some shoddy iron play which triggered van Rooyen's issues and he does still have to go and prove that's behind him, but he was better in Houston four starts ago and then better still in the Myrtle Beach Classic, and that's enough to justify the risk 150/1-plus.
Remember, he was in rotten form when turning up here last year and chasing home Scheffler and having previously won a wide-open shootout in Mexico, a return to similar surroundings might help. His other standout performances in 2025 came at PGA National, where he'd been runner-up the previous year, and the Barracuda, where he's a past champion, and he's a bit of a horses-for-courses type.
Van Rooyen's performance here was no fluke as he ranked second to Scheffler in the tee-to-green stats and having shown genuine signs of life both last time out and in the Zurich Classic before it, let's hope he can pick up where he left off a year ago. Anything upwards of 100/1 looks good.
The case for Dunlap is not without issues, of course, and as he's one of the 50 or more players who have been cut during the writing of this preview, I'll leave him out.
One glance at even the revised price will tell you that there are big questions still for Dunlap to answer. Those who follow the sport more closely will know that as well as some background legal stuff that can't have helped, on the course he's been battling the driving yips.
However, the rest of his game has generally remained solid and he's an excellent iron player who can putt the lights out, this course makes more sense than most. Two players made last year's top 10 despite losing strokes off the tee, various others were no more than decent, and Dunlap has actually shown a few signs of progress lately, including when 24th last time out.
Before that, he finished T17 in New Orleans but was the dominant player alongside the similarly wild Gordon Sargent, his approach play and short-game all good, and since his latest tournament start he's come up three shots short in the US Open qualifier here in Dallas. That included all scores from a hole-in-one to a double-bogey, evidence that his iron play is where we need it but the driver still must be a worry.
Dunlap has of course won a low-scoring desert event (while losing strokes off the tee) but it's the fact he actually gained strokes here during the same year that offers most encouragement. It speaks to the nature of the course and while no, he wasn't battling the driving yips, he had lost significant ground off the tee in the starts prior to it, just as he did in those immediately afterwards.
It's probably asking too much but a field-average performance would suddenly turn one of the rank outsiders into a viable contender and look where he shot an opening 61 and finished eighth last year: El Cardonal, where Craig Ranch runners-up van Rooyen and Eckroat have both won. If he can ride his luck when those wild drives do arrive, who knows.
Posted at 17:00 BST on 19/05/26
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