Tom Hoge is one of four outsiders on Ben Coley's list for the Sony Open, as the PGA Tour makes its delayed return in Hawaii.
Golf betting tips: Sony Open
1pt e.w. Keita Nakajima at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Tom Hoge at 225/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. David Ford at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Brian Campbell at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
It's a later than usual start to the PGA Tour season after the decision to cancel The Sentry, otherwise known as the Tournament of Champions, which looked somewhat premature as pictures of a pristine Kapalua emerged last week.
According to a report by Golf Digest's Joel Beall, the new head honcho at the PGA Tour wants to do away with the Hawaii swing altogether. There's some sense in that, with costs high and timings not ideal; Brian Rolapp seems set on delaying the beginning of the season to avoid clashing with the culmination of the Super Bowl and, like it or not, these are the tough decisions he was hired to make.
Easier was the decision to welcome Brooks Koepka back to the PGA Tour, which was confirmed on Monday night. For what it's worth I'll be stunned if any of the other three eligible players follow suit, but Bryson DeChambeau's negotiating hand has been further strengthened, and Jon Rahm's path back has been laid out for when his contract is up for renewal. Surely, he does not extend it.
For now we'll focus on what we know and in losing The Sentry, one Sony Open trend is removed: so often, this tournament has been won by someone who played in that one, the idea being that a primer on the other island was a big advantage. I happen to believe it was a bit of a red herring and that ultimately it is a numbers game. Most years, the top dozen or more in the betting, the best players, had played at Kapalua.
And it is somewhat amusing to think back to 2025 when a Sunday short-game clinic helped Nick Taylor become the latest player to highlight the trend without necessarily justifying it. Why? Because a certain JJ Spaun, who was making his seasonal reappearance, was in front and cruising before missing a two-foot birdie putt at the ninth and making no further birdies thereafter. At the time, members of his own family might've been the only people on this good Earth willing to volunteer Spaun's name as a viable 2025 major winner.
Twelve months on, Spaun returns as precisely that, the reigning US Open champion no less, and a player whose subsequent exploits in the Ryder Cup, at Southwind and elsewhere mark him down as one of the most likely winners of a tournament which, in a trends sense at least, has been blown wide open by the loss of last week's scheduled event.
There is another, I believe more meaningful statistic worth considering, especially with 19 Korn Ferry Tour graduates and most of the Race to Dubai graduates in attendance. Since its inception, only Russell Henley has won this tournament on his first start at Waialae. Henley, like Spaun, now returns for another crack as one of the favourites. It is a strong field as the loss of one Hawaii event seemingly benefits the other.
As for the specifics of the course, Waialae is a short, flat par 70, able to hold its own when the wind blows but generally vulnerable to low scoring. It is not one that can be overpowered and bar the odd exception, winners generally excel with their iron play. That's been true of Taylor, Si Woo Kim and Kevin Na, three of the last six champions, and two of the others led the field in putting. From 2013 to 2019, six of seven winners ranked inside the top 10 in strokes-gained approach, so that's nine of the last 13.
Given that Henley hasn't played since the Ryder Cup and Collin Morikawa since Japan the following month, Spaun and Ben Griffin are the pick of the market principals. Both have course form in a tournament where that tends to matter and after Griffin signed off a breakout year with victory in Mexico, Spaun finished fourth in the Hero Challenge.
But without The Sentry, with a breezy forecast and with a long year ahead of us, I don't want to be getting stuck into 18/1 shots in this wide-open renewal of a tournament which concludes in the middle of the night for us in the UK.
I'd much rather take a few small chances and will kick things off with 200/1 shot TOM HOGE.
It's fair to say 2025 wasn't great for Hoge save for his now typical appearance on the PLAYERS leaderboard, but after struggling all summer he started to show some better signs in the autumn. Over his final 10 rounds every score was between 66 and 70 and, crucially, his irons started to fire once more.
That's Hoge's strength – even in a down year he ranked well inside the top quarter of PGA Tour players – and it explains where he's most effective. Third at Sawgrass, third at the Travelers, third at El Camaleon and fourth in the RSM Classic all back up his lone victory, at Pebble Beach, while he's been third and 12th here down the years, too.
Also third in the Tournament of Champions, where he began last year with eighth place, he's got plenty of form fresh right here in Hawaii and in five of the last nine years has hit the ground running, so with just a little more substance to his play when last we saw him, he's the sort of outsider I could see surprising a few.
Yes, the putter is the big concern but he's gained strokes in half of his 10 starts here at Waialae, just as he's produced a very high standard of approach play on five separate occasions, and it really is a good golf course for him. Were Hoge to win he'd be emulating Taylor in completing the Pebble Beach double and the skills required are pretty similar.
Also runner-up in the AmEx, played on more short courses that can't really be overpowered, Hoge has the right profile. I don't know if his game is in the right place, but am willing to take that chance given the circumstances and the prices being thrown around.
"I certainly feel like it's a golf course I should play well at, and maybe the results haven't quite worked out how they should, I feel like," he said after a bright start 12 months ago, when he shot 64 to lead at the end of round one.
"A few years where I've come over here thinking my game is in really good shape and shoot a good round in the first round, a couple over in the second round and miss the cut. The results have been a little bit mixed.
"But I do enjoy it here. I really enjoy these sort of golf courses on Tour, here, Colonial, Harbour Town, where you've got to get the ball in the fairways and it's pretty tricky to do so."
Here's hoping for another good first round and, perhaps, redemption for an opportunity missed in 2018.
Next is BRIAN CAMPBELL, a two-time winner on the PGA Tour last season.
Asking lightning to strike three times is probably a bit much but while he enjoyed some fortune in Mexico, there's no denying that Campbell took his opportunities when they arrived. And with stacking exemptions guaranteeing his status to the end of 2028, he's going to be playing with freedom for quite some time yet.
Campbell did defy all logic to win on a wide, big course for that first title, but going forward he'll surely be more dangerous on shorter ones like Waialae, something he hinted at last year. Though forced to withdraw, he'd started the tournament with a three-under 67 on a tricky day, gaining almost two strokes with his approaches – the area of the game which powered his two wins.
The shortest driver on the circuit, he'll likely struggle for long periods over the next three seasons but from what we've seen, that approach play might also combine with enough good putting weeks to see him pop up and contend under the right circumstances. I believe this course provides them and when last Campbell played he finished 20th behind Xander Schauffele, his third-best result of 2025, having led after round one and played well for three of the four rounds in Japan.
Granted, the subsequent break is longer than I'd like but we can't have everything at these odds and on his sole previous PGA Tour campaign prior to last year, he did kick things off with a solid 25th in January, one of his better efforts. As with Hoge, I could see him threatening the places in an event where so many players will be caught out by rust, new equipment, or the persistent breeze that is forecast.
Ford fancied for a run at the title
Tipping debutants here isn't usually for me but again we're talking massive odds about last year's PGA Tour University graduate, DAVID FORD.
The left-hander showed us what he's capable of when third in Utah and while that event on a wide-open course had a freakish quality, Ford's tee-to-green numbers were strong either side of it, all the way through to a one-shot missed cut in the RSM Classic.
Gaining 2.8 strokes ball-striking there and one of the best drivers on the circuit from the day he joined it, not because of power but accuracy, Ford has quickly demonstrated that he has a game good enough to build a long PGA Tour career providing the putter isn't too much of a handicap.
It didn't look to be when he dazzled in Dubai at this time a year ago, leading an elite field after round one while still an amateur, and on bermuda greens which ought to be familiar given his Georgia and North Carolina roots, we can afford to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
Ford's game really does look a neat fit for Waialae and I'm particularly taken by some of the courses at which he won amateur titles. PGA National, Sawgrass, Sedgefield and Sea Island aren't just familiar PGA Tour venues, they're among those we'd usually look to for Sony Open clues. Maybe they can still point us in the right direction with this capable youngster.
Slightly further up the betting, KEITA NAKAJIMA could be the pick of the DP World Tour graduates this time.
Unlike the others he's actually played here twice, sitting fifth at halfway on debut four years ago (while still an amateur) and then striking it really well for much of his second visit. Those efforts confirm that the course is a good fit for this straight-hitting youngster, a world-class amateur before turning professional and winning the Indian Open at a course which demands accuracy rather than power.
Perhaps tougher scoring conditions would help but the wind may keep a lid on things and one thing I really like is that while the PGA Tour is a step up, he has recent experience contending alongside elite golfers. Nakajima was runner-up to Tommy Fleetwood in Delhi last October, another tight course, having played with the champion in round four and Shane Lowry in round three.
Griffin was close behind that day and if it helps Nakajima feel like he's ready for this rise in grade, it could go on to play a key part in his rookie campaign. There are others from the DP World Tour who arrive with greater fanfare and my hopes are high for this particular crop of players, with Nakajima expected to play his part. He's got oodles of class, that's for sure.
So, with that course experience, with his accuracy off the tee, his strong approach play and the way he putted towards the end of 2025, Nakajima looks to have both the game and the recent form to be considered a viable contender. I make him a bet at three-figure prices.
Those seeking a realistic winner have seemingly come to the wrong place but I'll give a positive word for Chris Kirk, the habitual Sony Open contender who returned from three months away with an eye-catching performance at the RSM Classic. Kirk's iron play and overall tee-to-green game were very good at Sea Island and while his putting is always a nagging worry, there had been good signs during the summer.
He's as good a bet as you'll find below 50/1 but I'll stay the other side of it, where 400/1 Kensei Hirata and 150/1 Seonghyeon Kim both featured on a lengthy list of likeable outsiders, enthusiasm tempered just enough by the fact that the top of the betting does look strong.
I'm just in no mood to have a stab at who among them will come out firing and will sit back and watch. Well, the highlights at least.
Posted at 12:00 GMT on 13/01/26
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