Alex Fitzpatrick can follow on from Sunday's victory for big brother Matt and win the Hero Indian Open according to Ben Coley – providing the favourite isn't quite at his best.
Golf betting tips: Hero Indian Open
2pts e.w. Alex Fitzpatrick at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Elvis Smylie at 45/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Matteo Manassero at 70/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kazuma Kobori at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Davis Bryant at 125/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Daniel Rodrigues at 125/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Akshay Bhatia headlines the field for the Hero Indian Open and should he produce the form he’s shown in any one of his last six PGA Tour starts, then it might be a question of 'how far?'
Seldom do we say that in golf, but this is one of the form players in the world and a genuine major contender for the months ahead. In fact, you do have to wonder whether he might regret compromising his Masters preparation by coming here first.
The reason for his appearance is two-fold: payment and pedigree. Bhatia will absolutely be benefiting financially for this as an ambassador for the sponsors, but after winning almost $6million already this season, he must also want to return to the country of his parents' birth. It just wouldn't be worth it otherwise.
He is not the only class act in this field, even if he does stand out. David Puig is also here for slightly more complicated reasons, his to do with settling outstanding fines which will allow him to continue as a DP World Tour member. After winning the Australian PGA late last year, he has his sights set on the Ryder Cup and is good enough to ensure there's Spanish representation at Adare Manor.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Bhatia and Puig are on opposing sides in fact and in the case of the former, this is a fabulous chance to win a tournament that holds personal significance. It's rare that a red-hot PGA Tour player travels alone to a smaller DP World Tour event – so rare that I actually can't think of another recent example – and I was staggered bookmakers put them in as 10/1 joint-favourites.
Bhatia is 14th in DataGolf's rankings, Puig is 44th. Bhatia has a rounded game, whereas the explosive Puig relies on his power and putting. Bhatia ultimately made the decision to be here, whereas Puig had to be as part of a deal to commute his DP World Tour fines. The latter has more DP World Tour experience and most of it excellent, but at this course, at this moment, Bhatia's chance is significantly superior.
The complication is the golf course. DLF G&CC is what it is and I've done all the jokes before, but the salient point now is how dramatically penal it can be. There are a dozen ways to lose shots on just about every hole and that adds uncertainty. For every well-fancied winner there's always going to be the spectre of a Stephen Gallacher stunner and an unshakeable sense that things can go awry for anyone at any time.
Set against that is the fact Eugenio Chacarra and Keita Nakajima are the last two champions. Perhaps there was a naivety about their respective performances that worked in their favour, but the bottom line is these are two quality young players who hit quality approach shots. Nakajima is especially accurate but Chacarra is far from wayward off the tee, either.
Crucially and like Marcel Siem (also an accurate, quality iron player) before them, they arrived in form and high on confidence. That's one thing logical about a tournament and a golf course which some players are downright afraid of and with good reason. Do you really want to be walking to that first tee with swing thoughts swirling around your head?
And so we return to Bhatia and to be honest I'm relieved the 10/1 didn't last the afternoon, his price settling around 7/1. I don't want to be recommending chunky win-only bets in the Hero Indian Open and now, with those tempting prices having disappeared, I am able to avoid doing so. There's a good chance he follows Patrick Reed in showing how far class takes you here, but we'll hope DLF finds him out.
As alluded to in my latest DP World Tour preview, ALEX FITZPATRICK was always going to be of significant interest here – that his brother went and won the Valspar Championship on Sunday is merely a nice additional flourish to what I consider to be a strong case.
Fitzpatrick has been doing a lot right for a long time and his record this year is a neat demonstration of that: six starts, five top-25s, and just one poor round he wasn't able to overcome in Qatar. He has been a model of consistency and last time out took another step forward to properly contend in the Joburg Open.
Second and within a couple of shots of the leader teeing off at the ninth hole on Sunday, one bad swing set in motion an especially disappointing finish and those of us on each-way to six places were left cursing the fact he couldn't find one more shot to clear that bar. Still, the bigger picture is one of another step towards winning his first title at this level, with all parts of his game now firing.
Fitzpatrick's approach play has been the driver of this sustained run of excellent golf, one which in fact stretches back to October. It's now 10 starts running and 13 in 14 that he's gained strokes with his irons and they've been especially strong since the turn of the year, ranking ninth and 12th the last twice but also 15th in a high-class Dubai Desert Classic.
With his chipping and pitching the envy of his major-winning brother and his driving stats also encouraging, particularly in terms of hitting fairways, the only real issue is that he throws in the odd putting shocker. Still, we've had three top-25 performances in succession since the latest of those and last time he played in India, he ranked eighth.
That performance looks significant. Nakajima chased home Tommy Fleetwood in Delhi last autumn and DLF specialist Joost Luiten was sixth. Jens Dantorp was thereabouts after he'd produced a career-best fourth here in the spring and Chacarra was a decent 26th. Once upon a time, SSP Chawrasia won at both venues and while unalike aesthetically, they're both demanding tests where staying out of trouble is vital.
Third place in amongst genuinely elite golfers was an excellent performance from Fitzpatrick and having produced his best golf since on his latest start, he appears to be getting closer to winning. That all of his best form elsewhere, including when winning on the HotelPlanner Tour, has come on classical, accuracy-favouring courses suggests that DLF – not classical, but certainly demanding accuracy – is a good place to do it.
He has form here, too, having been 25th on debut and 17th last year, missing the cut in between despite a bright start. Hopefully, seeing his older brother contend for The Players and then rubber-stamp his major credentials by winning at the Valspar helps him to take the next step in his own career.
One other note regarding Fitzpatrick is that he ranks second in this field in greens hit for the season so far. In the days of strokes-gained data we quite rightly don't talk much about greens in regulation, but around courses as severe as this there's probably mileage in doing so.
DANIEL RODRIGUES ranks 12th for what's his first season on the circuit and he's really impressed me since coming through Q-School, enough to be considered a fun outsider here at three-figure prices.
Rodrigues was a very promising amateur who then caught the eye in a few local events back home in Portugal at the start of last year. Opportunities on the HotelPlanner Tour then began to come his way and since August he's played 12 times across both tours, missing only one cut.
In amongst this he came through all three stages of Qualifying School, itself a mighty feat, and straight out of the gate looked comfortable. He shot 65 to make the cut in a high-class Australian PGA won by Puig, led at halfway in the Australian Open the following week, and since returning in February has earned five cheques from as many appearances.
This includes two more good salvage jobs to make the cut following iffy first rounds but in three of his last four events he's started well and hung around pretty close to the leaders, culminating in a first top-10 finish in Hainan last week. There, he once again hit fairways and greens and led the field in strokes-gained approach.
Before the Hainan Classic I wouldn't have had it down as much of a guide to the Indian Open, but with Jordan Gumberg beating Jorge Campillo, it really ought to be. Gumberg is in fact the greens-in-regulation leader in this field for the season so far and, like Campillo, is more accurate than he is powerful. That leaderboard featured any number of steady drivers who hit quality approach shots.
For my money that's the formula we're after and young Rodrigues fits the bill, so with any amount of potential he's one I want to chance.
Back up the betting, Francesco Molinari is interesting after more eye-catching play last week and having brother Edoardo back on the circuit is no bad thing, but perhaps MATTEO MANASSERO can upstage them both.
It's been a tough run for Manassero but I do think we ought to keep an eye on these players who come back from the PGA Tour having lost status there. Some will find that toiling in the US gets them into bad habits and it becomes hard to recover, but Manassero knows a thing or two about grinding your way back into form and I think he'll be just fine.
He wasn't disgraced out there, either, despite being a moderate driver of the ball, and while it's been a slow start to this season his closing 65 for 24th place in the South African Open might prove to be a valuable hint that he's ready to contend.
Manassero is certainly a good fit for this course providing he keeps it in play off the tee, which he's capable of doing. Over his last three starts his iron play has returned to its exceptional standards and there may be no better chipper on the circuit, two skills which are enormously useful here. As for the putter, that's hit and miss but three good performances in his last five is encouragement enough.
Less guesswork is required when it comes to DLF, because he was always in the hunt when third on debut, even managed to make the cut towards the start of his demise a year later, and can be excused a shocker in 2019, when he was poor everywhere. Returning after five years away in 2024, he led after round one and again stuck around all week.
In other words, we've three relevant performances to go on and from them, twice he's never left the top five. That's seriously good and after just the right amount of promise at Stellenbosch last time out, we're able to back this course specialist at a really nice price.
Japanese youngster Kota Kaneko will be out to emulate Nakajima and is certainly respected, but my preference is for the more known quantity that is KAZUMA KOBORI.
Known for being a wizard on the greens, his 34th place while holing nothing last week looks like a potentially big hint and it saw him lead the field in fairways and rank sixth in greens. Kobori leads this field in driving accuracy this year and led them all last year, too, so he's one to note when there's a premium on doing so.
Perhaps that's why he came closest to winning at the Belfry and was third at Eichenried, with Nakajima contending at the former and Luiten, Jordan Smith and Ewen Ferguson among the straight-hitting course specialists at the latter, which also looks like a decent form guide for this.
Kobori has played here before but missed the cut, however that was two years ago, before he became a DP World Tour member, and his second crack arrives at a much better time. He found form for ninth in Qatar, returned home to be 19th in a strong New Zealand Open and then contended for the ISPS Handa Japan-Australasia Championship, before heading out to China for the Hainan Classic.
It was a tricky weekend for him there but the youngster made very few mistakes and, heading to a course where that is key, he looks another live each-way player.
Davis love and Elvis back in the building
DAVIS BRYANT tumbled a long way down the leaderboard on Sunday too, but the American ought to take heart from Gumberg's win and might just be capable of following him in.
Bryant did well to get his card back after a promising but luckless first try on the DP World Tour, where he played more than well enough to merit status but was unable to access the big events and suffered as a consequence.
He came closest to winning at Eichenried when we were on at huge odds and that came after he'd been 10th in Italy behind Adrien Saddier on one of the most accuracy-heavy leaderboards of the season. Saddier had contended here a couple of months before, Chacarra finished seventh, and both Fitzpatrick and Kobori also showed promise at Argentario, where John Parry is a past champion.
Accuracy is certainly Bryant's game and we saw it, along with no shortage of fight, when he finished runner-up in the Kenya Open three starts back, before an understandably poor first round put paid to his prospects a week later. Another of those followed in China, but middle rounds of 68 and 67 were among the best of the day and suggest he remains in good nick.
He will have to recover from a closing 42 but he'd shot 80-75 prior to Kenya so having been sixth on his sole previous visit to India, at a course which also appears to favour accuracy over power, he's one I want to take a chance on. Certainly, the quality of his approach play last week combined with the accuracy we've seen since he first turned professional suggests DLF could be to his liking.
Veer Ahlawat has been in sensational form on the PGTI since losing his DP World Tour card, and he defied a very slow start to finish a respectable 22nd on the HotelPlanner Tour last week here in his native India. That could prove to be a handy advantage and he's certainly of interest having been runner-up to Nakajima at this level and then a good 17th last year.
Compatriot Shubhankar Sharma was about 50/1 for this last year and that was considerably bigger than he had ever been before, so to see him at 300/1 is quite something. That reflects what have been a tough 12 months but after missing 16 cuts in a row from April to September, he's since made eight of his last 13, come through Q-School, and been close to the lead for two rounds in Bahrain.
I don't think he's in the right place to go and win this but he did miss the cut only by one last week and at inflated odds it might be worth a rare dip into the first-round leader market. He owned the course record until Espen Kofstad somehow shot 81-62 to begin this tournament in 2024 and has opened with rounds of 66 in two of his last five starts, so looks a live one at a price once more firms offer that market.
Rafa Cabrera Bello is playing well, his approach work in particular showing sustained quality, while his ex-compatriot Adrian Otaegui is the right fit and arrives here one of the hottest players on the circuit. Inside the top six in three starts running, his iron play is firing again and the putter has warmed up, which is usually all it takes to make him dangerous on the right kind of golf course.
But at the same price as the latter, I can't get away from ELVIS SMYLIE.
It's six weeks since the Australian youngster beat Jon Rahm to win the LIV Riyadh title and while I'd be neither advocate nor defender of that circuit, the top end of its fields are strong. Several such players produced good golf that week including Puig in fourth, with Thomas Pieters, Thomas Detry, Abraham Ancer and Ben An all thereabouts.
With respect, not for a second do I think the likes of Frederic Lacroix, Matt Jordan, Otaegui and the rest at the same price for this could have done that and Smylie is just a cut above them in my view, with the likelihood of plenty more to come. I wouldn't go as far as Cam Smith claiming he can be the best player in the world, but that does give you some indication as to the potential he does have.
Whether Smylie is particularly thrilled to be here I don't know but he did play the event on an invite a couple of years ago, narrowly missing the cut, and at 79th in the world he might be thinking about aiming for a spot in the PGA Championship and then the US Open. He's in a good position for the former but it's easy to drop down the rankings fast on the LIV circuit so he can't pass up opportunities if he wants to be there.
Regardless, he looks a good course fit as an accurate driver with a dynamite short-game and while just failing to make the weekend on his first look around DLF, a second-round 70 which featured one bogey and came at a time when he was 815th in the world offers sufficient promise.
Smylie was 23rd on the Race to Dubai last year, entering the final event with a chance to earn PGA Tour membership, and while there are some unknowns I'd have him right around the 25/1 mark for this. I don't think there are many more likely champions and while just about able to overcome temptation with Bhatia's price, another recent winner is too big to turn down.
Posted at 18:00 GMT on 23/03/26
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