Ben Coley landed the winner of last year's Hainan Classic with a top young talent, and he's out for a repeat.
Golf betting tips: Hainan Classic
5pts win Angel Ayora at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts win Wenyi Ding at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts e.w. Grant Forrest at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Freddy Schott at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Max Steinlechner at 80/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
After a week off to allow the PGA Tour to show off, the DP World Tour returns with the Hainan Classic at Mission Hills. This is the tournament in which Marco Penge began his ascent a year ago and as he just took part in The Players Championship, close to his new Florida base, the path is laid out in front of those making the trip to the Far East.
There are some notable changes from last year. First, whereas that was a double-header with the China Open, this time these two events are five weeks apart, which is more than a little absurd but presumably unavoidable. Second, the Blackstone Course now co-hosts with the Vintage Course and that's a shame in some respects, as the profile for the former could not be any clearer.
It's not just that Penge beat Sean Crocker, Kristoffer Reitan and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, all of them powerful. It's that if you look at the strokes-gained off-the-tee stats for the season, Penge ranked first, Neergaard-Petersen sixth, Reitan eighth. None of the other members of the top 10 took part in this event.
Penge was among my selections (this isn't boastfulness; I've had none on the DP World Tour since) and the case revolved around this sense that long driving would be an enormous advantage.
Partly, that came from descriptions of the course and its wide fairways, with almost no rough – stray far enough wide and you'd be faced with a lie among the rocks instead. It also had something to do with the 2011 World Cup played here and won by the USA, because Matt Kuchar said he chose Gary Woodland to partner him because of his power.
So the question is this: to what if any extent does the addition of 18 holes on the Vintage Course change things? The answer to that is surely not a lot. Even if it plays into the hands of the shorter, straighter hitters, they'll still struggle to keep up over 54 holes at the Blackstone. As it happens, it looks likely to favour long drivers as well.
"The two courses offer distinct styles, with the Blackstone Course more challenging and testing of players' precision, compared to the flexible layout of the Vintage Course," says the DP World Tour press release, but I'm not having the first part of that. Penge hit 73.2% of fairways and ranked 62nd for driving accuracy, so precision was not tested. In the Joburg Open last time, the player hitting 73.2% of fairways led the entire field.
What that statement does likely reveal is that the Vintage Course will be pretty straightforward. It's a bit tighter and tree-lined, with more rough too, but it's also 400 yards shorter and the par-fives all look very much gettable. Despite being defined by trees it's described as giving you 'plenty of elbow room' on the Mission Hills website and I imagine there will be plenty of low scores there.
The formula should be a quality, long driver who takes advantage of his round at the Vintage Course, with form here, elsewhere in China and perhaps especially at Sanya Luhuitou a bonus. The latter hosts an event on the HotelPlanner Tour where Crocker finished third on his sole try and both Reitan and fifth-placed Martin Couvra played well. Bowen Xiao was the pick of the home challenge and he likes it there too.
On paper this is the best chance ANGEL AYORA has had to win on the DP World Tour, from a pre-tournament perspective at least, and I'll back him to take it.
At fifth in strokes-gained off-the-tee this season and fourth last, Ayora is the best driver in the field, and he's the best player full stop. DataGolf have him about equal to David Puig and Michael Thorbjorsen, the former just 16/1 to beat Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau this week, the latter a contender at Sawgrass last week.
That's a serious level we're talking and because Ayora has admittedly had a few issues in the mix lately, there's a ceiling on how short his price is being allowed to go. On ability and the gap between him and the others in this field he ought to be a few points shorter and that's before we consider how suitable these courses look to be.
Ayora was 12/1 for the Kenya Open, which featured Hennie Du Plessis, Antoine Rozner, Ewen Ferguson, Jacob Skov Olesen, Alex Fitzpatrick and Casey Jarvis, among other good players. He was then 12/1 for an SA Open featuring Patrick Reed, Jayden Schaper, Branden Grace and Dean Burmester, the latter also 16s to win on LIV Golf this week.
Ayora performed well in both, yet we can now have 11/1 with the likes of Oliver Lindell, Thriston Lawrence, Matthew Jordan and Jorge Campillo the big threats on paper. It goes without saying, but the competition at the front versus the events he's been playing is considerably weaker, so I really don't understand why his price isn't considerably shorter.
Perhaps his failure to kick on after an opening 64 in Joburg is part of it but another top-20 performance powered by elite tee-to-green numbers only underlines the strength of his form to me and having played well on all three starts in China, including a runner-up finish, he looks to have everything in his favour this week.
Ayora didn't play here last year but he's contended on his first starts at Karen and Stellenbosch recently, plus Sun City and Jumeirah Golf Estates late last year, all of this against a higher level of opposition. Should he continue to play as he has done on six of his seven starts this year, he seems sure to go close.
Of course, he faltered from the front in Kenya, but look again at the dangers on paper. Lindell hit the front in Doha and immediately struggled as he seeks his first pro win of any kind, whereas Ayora won on the HotelPlanner Tour. Jordan hasn't won at this level yet despite more than 150 attempts, and Kimsey is a maiden too.
Winning experience is in very short supply here, and most of the high-class form of late comes from one player. I've generally shied away from siding with Ayora at short odds, putting him up just twice so far on the DP World Tour, but there's no question in my mind he's the standout bet in this field.
Max appeal
I thought that honour would go to MAXIMILIAN STEINLECHNER when he opened at a preposterous 475/1 with some bookmakers.
But that erroneous price having disappeared shouldn't stop us from siding with him at considerably shorter because this is a big talent with the right tools for this test, one who was a play-off loser in both starts in China last year.
Steinlechner did win on the HotelPlanner Tour and looked one of the most promising graduates only to struggle early on this season, but he has shown a lot more lately. He opened 66-66 in Kenya until fading to 34th, narrowly missed the cut in the SA Open afterwards, and then took 15th in Joburg having led after round one.
Significantly, he's ranked eighth and 11th in strokes-gained tee-to-green for the two cuts made, and eighth and sixth in strokes-gained approach. This is the kind of notable upturn in ball-striking it often pays to pay attention to and as it comes from a powerful young player with a high ceiling, I'm not surprised he's found is way onto a few shortlists.
That he's got such strong form in China, where he'd also looked comfortable during his rookie season as a professional, should mean he arrives here raring to get going and build on 15th place in a considerably stronger field last time. Any improvement with the putter and he can do exactly that.
Next, I've thought long and hard about siding with WENYI DING and the more time I spent looking at badly out-of-sorts players who are still short of 100/1 because of a serious lack of depth here, the more inclined I was to double up on the two best young talents in this field.
It's worth reiterating that last year, Penge, Reitan, Neergaard-Petersen and Martin Couvra filled four of the first five places and while a lot of that had to do with the nature of the course, the grade was also significant. I can't stress enough how shallow the fields for this event have been so no wonder the pick of the young talent has shone.
Ding threatened to be among them himself when he produced middle rounds of 68 and 70 under difficult conditions before a poor final round, but one year on he's had a proper taste of contending at this level now and should do much better if back in the mix.
That taste came at the back-end of last year, when runner-up to Puig in the Australian PGA Championship and then thereabouts again behind Neergaard-Petersen in the Australian Open, and his return top-20 in the Dubai Desert Classic marked him down as a winner in waiting.
Successive missed cuts after that rather calmed those expectations but key to siding with him here is that, away from more competitive events in the Middle East, he's played better since. First came a closing 64 for 23rd in Kenya, then in the SA Open he produced four more solid rounds for 29th in a strong tournament for the grade.
The combination of that form boost and this return home, plus the significantly weaker field, is in the end too hard to resist and while we might be paying a tax for the fact we are in China, that's probably right. Besides, even if you strip away the name and the flag, you'd see that his form compares favourably with Jordan, Campillo and Kimsey.
With significantly greater potential having been a genuinely elite amateur in the US college system, I would regret missing him here. It's time to be a bit less stubborn and side with a player I consider the number one threat to Ayora, after a timely career-best driving display last time out.
More of the same and it's possible this tournament gets a showdown between two players destined for much bigger things. Look out for win-only markets if following the advice to the letter.
Forrest ready to land hat-trick
The best each-way bet is GRANT FORREST, who looks an ideal fit for this golf course.
Forrest hinted as much when 23rd last year. That was his best result in more than six months and came despite a cool putter, as he ranked fifth in approach play and sixth from tee-to-green.
He returns now in significantly better form having bagged three top-20s in four to begin the year, the only exception coming in a Rolex Series event where he nevertheless made the cut. This is a really solid form book from a two-time DP World Tour champion whose tee-to-green numbers have never been this consistently strong.
Of course, both those wins came in his native Scotland, but his game travels and I'm drawn to the fact that in two appearances at Sanya Luhuitou, he's been beaten by a grand total of two players. Those runner-up finishes provide some of the best correlating form in the field and it makes sense, as he's a powerhouse who can putt, just like Penge.
The nagging worry is that he's taken a break since the Middle East while others went to Africa, but we can at least draw some encouragement from last summer's win in Aberdeen. Forrest had been off for a month but it didn't stop him and in the end he was a dominant winner.
Forrest was back in the mix in Bahrain recently, finishing seventh after a couple of late mistakes, and on the form he showed there, in Qatar and in Dubai he's a big player in this field. In fact if this tournament came the very next week I'd say he might rate the biggest threat to the favourite on paper.
As it is, we get a nice chunk extra on the price to compensate for the uncertainties provided by his absence, and at courses that are made for him that'll do for me.
Worth another Schott
Compatriot Calum Hill is a similar player but more reliant on the putter and coming here after two missed cuts in three, so it's to the man who beat him in Bahrain, FREDDY SCHOTT, that I turn next.
Schott's win there was somewhat out of the blue but key to it was the course. Bahrain is a great venue for wild, wayward drivers who can ride their luck a little and that's pretty much what Schott did, particularly as Hill rather gifted him an opportunity.
He was second in strokes-gained off-the-tee there and after a missed cut on a much more positional golf course in Kenya, it was nice to see him bounce back in South Africa, where he fought hard to make the cut then closed with a stunning 63 for 14th place.
That makes it five top-20s in his last 10 starts and with his driver now really starting to purr once again, there should be a lot more to come from Schott when he lands at the right course. He's not played these ones before but for my money they'll be ideal, with 11th place on his sole start in China (better field than this) offering some encouragement.
Mikael Lindberg is one of few players in this field who can live with Schott off the tee and is respected, but he can be a little fragile in the mix at times. That's not usually something I dwell upon, but as this will be about the shortest price he's ever been for a DP World Tour event, we probably ought to in this case.
There are other big-hitters like Rocco Repetto Taylor whose names wouldn't surprise me were they to appear in the mix, but the main course here was a good test last year, one that did a better job than most in separating players by skill. Should that remain the case, I doubt we're in for a surprise, so this is no time to go speculating.
Posted at 19:00 GMT on 16/03/26
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