The PGA Tour lands in Florida for the Cognizant Classic, an event in which Ben Coley has enjoyed plenty of success. Here's his preview.
- PGA National marks the beginning of Florida Swing
- Round of 59 featured in easier 2025 renewal
- Shane Lowry among favourites as big names withdraw
Golf betting tips: Cognizant Classic
2pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Brooks Koepka at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Johnny Keefer at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. David Ford at 70/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Chandler Blanchet at 150/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Zach Bauchou at 200/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
After being a week early with Collin Morikawa and then watching Rory McIlroy putt abysmally over the weekend to lose by a solitary shot at Riviera, a change of scenery and a dose of positivity are required. Thankfully, the Cognizant Classic provides both... at least until the players actually start hitting shots.
This marks the arrival of the PGA Tour in Florida, where some big prizes await over the coming weeks. First though is the tournament which has been lost in a sea of Signature Events and The PLAYERS, which is why Jacob Bridgeman, Ben Griffin and Adam Scott all withdrew on Monday. PGA Tour tier two is not good for sponsors, but there are plenty who do benefit. Hopefully, we're among them.
The Cognizant, formerly the Honda, has been equal parts cruel and kind down the years, but it's given us plenty of excitement dating back to Russell Henley's 300/1 play-off win. Since then we've had play-off losers at 125/1 and 175/1, both of whom looked like they were about to win, and there's been another winner at the comparatively meagre odds of 33/1 for good measure.
All this guarantees precisely nothing but combined with the switch in time zones I can't tell you how ready I am for Thursday to come around. Whether that attitude survives the Bear Trap, those famed holes from 15 to 17, remains to be seen, and some of the selections are undeniably speculative. But this is a challenge to relish and the same goes for PGA Tour players who've been waiting for their chance for a couple of weeks.
PGA National is the host course and for years it was a beast, the blend of water and wind and just two par-fives making it a tough course upon which to score. That has changed over the past two renewals, first by making the 10th a par-five, then with the ryegrass overseed of 2025. That agronomical process essentially adds a thin layer of grass which softens fairways, makes playing from the rough easier, and removes the hostile unpredictability which bermuda grass used to provide, especially around the greens.
The result was a scoring average of almost two strokes under-par and a winning total which would've been enough to capture all previous editions bar that of 2024 by five shots or more. Compounded by the absence of meaningful wind, the home of the Bear Trap became more a puppy's comfort blanket, with Jake Knapp doing something previously unthinkable and shooting 59 in the opening round.
Fans of carnage will be hoping the more threatening elements of the current weather forecast win the battle. There is some wind in there and it wouldn't take much more than 10-12mph to make players think when standing over approaches to holes 15 and 17. Should it gust up to 20 and beyond, which is possible without being probable, then Sunday's finish could be another thriller in an event which often throws them up, whether easy or difficult.
As for how the course plays up to that point, last year's renewal was notable for the return of shorter-hitting, more rounded players. A year earlier, the accurate, deadly iron player Austin Eckroat got the better of a host of bigger-hitting rivals who benefited from wider fairways and rain in the run-up. That sort of profile ought to have also enjoyed the fairway overseed of 2025, but it didn't really play out that way.
One way or another, volatility is baked in when there's water in play on 15 holes, including a stretch late in the front-nine where the sixth can often be tougher than the better-known tests that await later on. There are of course players with strong records and there have been some high-class champions, but eight of 13 since Rory McIlroy scored as favourite were on offer at north of 66/1, some of them significantly.
And that's why I'm kicking off with CHANDLER BLANCHET.
Form figures of MC-MC-MC-MC to begin the year hardly scream winner-in-waiting, but the key here is the move from west coast to east. We'll doubtless see a number of players, particularly those who are new to the PGA Tour, find things a good deal easier under more familiar conditions closer to home, aided by the fact this field is weak.
Blanchet could be one of them, as he's from Florida and went to college here, so I've no doubt this part of the season has been on his mind since he graduated as the number two Korn Ferry Tour player last year. One of four to win multiple times, he was excellent from June onwards, bagging the Price Cutter Charity Championship and then signing off with form figures of 4-7-1.
Winning the Korn Ferry Tour Championship is significant as that's still one of the tougher tests they face, as his winning score of 14-under demonstrates, and it makes sense that he'd fare well when things get more difficult. For the season, Blanchet was sixth in fairways and second in greens, looking like the kind of old-school ball-striker so often favoured by PGA National.
The kicker is that he knows the course, too. That was a big part of my reasoning for siding with Eric Cole when he lost a play-off to Chris Kirk, as it was Daniel Berger when he lost a play-off to Padraig Harrington. And while Blanchet may not prove to be as capable as those two, he shares their Florida roots, and he has form at PGA National courtesy of the Minor League Golf circuit that Cole has dominated.
Clearly, second place to course member Brett Stegmaier in a one-round shootout tells us nothing about his potential to establish himself on the PGA Tour, but it won't be his only experience around this place and that additional layer of comfort could make all the difference. Remember, he was outshone only by the potential star Johnny Keefer last season, so there's a good level of ability there.
Blanchet also boasts some encouraging ball-striking numbers, gaining strokes with his approaches in all four starts to date, and off the tee in two of them. Sustained, quality approach play was again part of the case for Cole and as Blanchet's putting has improved week to week, I don't mind speculating that being back in Florida will help him to take another step forward in that department, too.
Hand on heart Cole's form had more substance to it, as did Berger's many moons ago, but the story here is of a field getting weaker by the year, the event overshadowed by those either side of it. Blanchet is worth backing at three-figure prices to remind us of the value of home, and the idea that the difference between missing cuts and contending can be as simple as a bit of familiarity.
My argument for ZACH BAUCHOU is somewhat similar and statistically, he's actually quite reminiscent of Cole.
So far, Bauchou has struggled off the tee but been good with his approaches bar one round at the long and difficult Torrey Pines South. He's improved around the greens and his putting has been better than the field average in three of four starts, all of which have so far resulted in a pay cheque.
He's been close enough to the top of the leaderboard, too, sitting 18th at halfway two starts ago and 10th at the same stage last time, so this one-time college standout appears to be getting comfortable after finally piecing things together to win on the Korn Ferry Tour in September.
That victory came in Tennessee on a course with water in play and bermuda greens and I wonder if he might emulate former Oklahoma State teammate Eckroat in capturing this title on the back of some eye-catching approach work.
Certainly he is another who should be more at ease now the Tour has left California and while he wasn't a factor at the very top of the leaderboard in the Polo Golf Junior Classic that used to be played here, he has a bit of course experience that will come in handy.
Bauchou is the sort of player who might be better suited to the PGA Tour than the Korn Ferry Tour, where you've got to keep up with extremely low scoring most weeks. If the Champion Course here at PGA National has a bit of bite back – the rough is at least up half an inch, too – then it might just play to his strengths.
DAVID FORD has winning experience at PGA National and while his price has been trimmed, it's still big enough to warrant an interest. You can shop around for three figures but at the time of writing, every firm has 66/1 and bigger on offer and that'll do nicely.
Ford shot rounds of 65 and 68 at the Champion Course when winning the 2020 Rolex Tournament of Champions and later went on to graduate through PGA Tour University, meaning he's exempt for the rest of this season.
Already he's been third in Utah and 13th in the Amex but this really ought to suit him even more, given that he was born in Georgia, educated in North Carolina, and achieved so much in Florida as a junior including capturing the Junior Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
What I like most though is the way he's been hitting the ball. On every start since October, Ford has gained strokes with his approaches, and they were superb across his measured round at Torrey Pines (10th) and two at PGA West (19th and third, eighth overall).
Also an excellent, accurate driver of the ball, as he demonstrated in Utah plus at the Sony, the Procore, the Canadian Open, the 3M Open and another couple of starts last year, we're left waiting for his short-game to click under the right circumstances.
Perhaps being back in Florida will help and if it does, this talented youngster has what it takes to contend.
Berger looks a tasty proposition
So does Adam Hadwin at his best and I strongly considered the Canadian, who has a top-10 finish from limited starts here, a win in Florida at the Valspar, a recent second place on the Korn Ferry Tour, and correlating form at the Jack Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village.
Hadwin contended in Bermuda late last year and has ranked first and second in greens hit in two starts down in grade, some indication that his iron play is getting there again, so he's one I could see popping up in the mix.
There's a similar case to be made for Andrew Putnam, runner-up in the AmEx before finding Torrey Pines a slog, but in the interests of actually trying to find the winner I'll keep things more sensible for the remaining picks, starting with DANIEL BERGER.
Runner-up on debut, fourth in 2020 and fourth again in 2022, Berger has underlined how well suited he is to a course he's been playing since childhood, one where bermudagrass greens and exposed, hazardous holes are so very familiar given his Florida roots.
It's true that he'd been playing nicely as a rookie back in 2015 and again five years later, but his 2022 performance followed a missed cut in Phoenix and it's a similar form turnaround we're looking for now.
Berger was admittedly disappointing at Pebble Beach, where he's a past champion, but last week's Genesis Invitational is much easier to excuse. He's yet to play the weekend at Riviera and is one of few elite players to have generally preferred to skip it, evidence that he's not nearly as big a fan of the course as most.
As conditions were soft and the course heavily favoured bombers, anything but a quiet week would've been a surprise so I'll take it as a handy bonus that he missed the cut and returned home to get ready for this much bigger opportunity.
Twice a winner at Southwind and once at Colonial, the former particularly similar in how it plays, straight-hitting Berger is made for this and prior to a fortnight of struggle in Signature Events, he led the field in strokes-gained approach for 16th place in Phoenix, a good indication that he's ready to contend at the right level.
This is easier and there are more echoes of four years ago, when he'd led the field in approach play a few starts earlier then suffered a blip before picking up again when he arrived home in Florida. This time it's a two-week blip we have to forgive but having been the same sort of price as Lowry at Pebble Beach, twice the price and change has to be snapped up.
Fellow Floridian BROOKS KOEPKA also merits the benefit of the doubt despite a poor set of results since returning to the PGA Tour.
Form figures of 56-MC leave him needing to find a jolt of improvement but in fairness to the five-time major champion, he hit the ball really well at Torrey Pines, a golf course he's never particularly liked, only to suffer a horror show on poa annua greens.
Though disappointing in Phoenix the following week, there were more signs of encouragement from tee-to-green only for an even worse performance with the putter to leave him with no chance after round one, but Koepka gained strokes on the greens in round two and I hope that proves the turning point.
A winner in Florida on the LIV Golf circuit, his previous best was second place here in 2019 and he also produced strong tee-to-green performances in 2016 (26th putting badly) and 2022 (16th putting badly), so this event is a good one on paper. Many a major champion has won here in the past and there's probably something in that, given the high-pressure finish and need to avoid mistakes.
And as for that putting turnaround, we can draw encouragement from 2019, when he'd ranked 67th of 71 players in the WGC-Mexico Championship but came here and improved that aspect of his game immediately, no doubt helped by more familiar conditions in his home state of Florida.
Koepka went on to win at Southwind that year and has also been second at Colonial, while it's worth remembering we're talking just four starts since he had a chance to add another title to his collection in France. Yes, that was on the DP World Tour, but this is not a good PGA Tour event, weaker than the two he's played since making his return.
He'll need to win it to get into the Arnold Palmer Invitational next week, too, and while keen to guard against following him off a cliff this spring, I wish I'd given Morikawa one more go. Hopefully, Koepka can be the latest major champion to remind us of their class after wins for Morikawa and Justin Rose so far this year.
Ryan Gerard is the pick of the favourites. He was among last year's selections at 80/1 and having become a PGA Tour winner and then taken another step forward since, it's hard to argue with prices around the 14/1 mark. However, short odds around this course just aren't for me and the same goes for Lowry, who has played beautifully since the Ryder Cup but missed some chances to win along the way.
Preference is for the potentially high-class JOHNNY KEEFER, who has made all four cuts to begin the year having ended the last one with seventh place in the RSM Classic.
The standout Korn Ferry Tour player last year, Keefer has quickly established himself among the best ball-strikers at the highest level of men's professional golf, ranking second in that statistic, second in greens hit, 10th in strokes-gained approach and ninth in strokes-gained off-the-tee.
He is the only player inside the top 10 in the latter two categories at this early stage of the season and would be close to the top of the list of most talented maidens on the PGA Tour, right behind Michael Thorbjornsen and Pierceson Coody.
Better putting will be required in order to contend but he produced that on bermuda greens at the RSM and having moved to Texas as a teenager, where he went to college, conditions here should be fine. He's actually a member at TPC San Antonio, home of the Texas Open, but perhaps he can win before we get to that event in a month or so.
Keefer's wins so far have come in lower scores than will be required here but he really ought to be suited by more demanding conditions given the strengths of his game, and it's worth noting that his putting did improve each day in Phoenix, ending with positive numbers in round four.
He's in a curious spot in that he qualified for the Masters and the US Open via his world ranking at the end of last year but isn't in the Signature Events. Expect that to change at some point and having sided with him last time out in a deeper field, I want to give him another spin at a course potentially even more ideal for his game.
Keefer is preferred to Will Zalatoris, who sounds bullish as he embarks upon the comeback trail again but may find this coming a little too soon after a backwards step at Torrey Pines. He's another Southwind champion to keep an eye on for signs of life and needs to win in his next few starts if he's to get into the Masters.
Players like these, who excel from tee-to-green, have often dominated at PGA National. What we need is to land on a better putting week for one of them and in general, hopes are pinned to that big shift in playing conditions from west coast to east.
Posted at 11:00 GMT on 24/02/26
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