Ben Coley previews the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, where a trio of recent major contenders hold each-way appeal.
- Bay Hill serves up latest Signature Event
- Tough course with water and fast greens
- Scheffler and McIlroy among past champions
Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational
2pts e.w. Harris English at 35/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 35/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 35/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Signature Events have been a success overall, but three of them in four weeks and then The PLAYERS on the back of that is a bit of a stretch if you ask me. Presumably, those not charged with trying to predict what will happen in them don't suffer this same kind of fatigue and can simply look forward to great golf by great golfers. Personally I find it all too condensed, like having four majors span only three months.
There is at least a shift of sorts this time as the great and the very good of the PGA Tour head east to Florida, where Bay Hill awaits. It lacks Riviera Country Club's architectural bonafides and the heavenly surrounds of Pebble Beach, but has found its own place in the game and doubled down. This is hard in the most overt ways: length, rough, water, and greens that come the weekend are more glass than grass.
Such a test of execution ought to suit the executioner, Scottie Scheffler, and so it is. He won by one here in 2022, the spring that saw him first become the best player in the world, then by five in 2024. The keen-eyed among you will note that these were the years of his Masters wins so if you're looking for a sign that he might don another Green Jacket in little more than a month, it could come in the form of a red one.
At his imperious best, Scheffler would look an excellent bet here, but in framing slow starts as silly mishaps we might've missed the headline: that his imperious best has been absent all year, really. Even in the AmEx, which he won easily in the end, the controlled ball-striking we expect was absent for longer than he'd like. Since then, the best version of Scheffler has been seen only in bursts, albeit spectacular ones.
The market doesn't necessarily reflect this downturn but if he is a little short, that hasn't bled into the prices of those just behind him and I think they're now about right. We were on Tommy Fleetwood at 25/1 when he placed at Pebble Beach; that is now 18/1. We were on Rory McIlroy when he conspired to lose by one at Riviera having been sent off at 14/1 on a rain-soaked course; that is now 10/1 at best.
And there's another thing we must consider, particularly relating to McIlroy. Yes, this place used to look like a dream fit for a longtime Florida resident who has won here, twice at Sawgrass, and once also at PGA National; long par-threes, a load of mid-iron approach shots, plenty of drivers and bermuda greens is in many ways what he wants. Bryson DeChambeau loves many of those things too and he's a past champion.
Lately, things have changed and last year's renewal threw up a who's who of old-fashioned ball-strikers, players who we might once have thought too short to compete around Bay Hill. There aren't many with less pop off the tee than Russell Henley, who chipped in and beat Collin Morikawa. Corey Conners was third, Michael Kim fourth, and Sepp Straka tied for fifth. All of these players excel with their approach shots and, Kim aside, they pound fairways. Bay Hill, so demanding off the tee, has drifted towards a test of accuracy over power.
Then there's the way they like to intensify things as the tournament progresses, specifically by pushing these greens to their limits. McIlroy said he was 'punch drunk' after a pair of weekend 76s when this happened in 2022 and while it's been a little easier since, he closed with that score again in 2024, and faded from a promising halfway position last year. Winning here took one of his best ever putting weeks. Does he really love the way this course plays?
He's striking the ball beautifully, won the Seminole Pro-Member with his dad on Monday and could of course win this too if putting better, but what's certain to me is that likely conditions add risk, where at Riviera they only added to his chances. If only he'd holed his share.
One player who loves it just the way it is is HARRIS ENGLISH and he gets the headline vote.
Three times over the last few years, English has spoken to the media after a round at Bay Hill, and three times, he's used the word 'chess' to describe what he likes about the set-up.
"I really enjoy how tough this place plays," he said two years ago. "Not too far off how a US Open plays. It feels like a major-type golf course. They got the rough up, got the greens firm and fast, you got to play some chess out here, and it's not about overpowering it. You can hit driver all you want, but if you're playing out of the rough, you're not going to hit it very close to the hole.
"I don't know, just something about it fits my eye. I just enjoy playing really tough setups. It plays into my hands."
As it happens, English suffered a poor final round on this occasion to fall to 21st, but he'd closed from fifth to second with a two-under 70 a year earlier, and had also been ninth in 2020. In total, five appearances since his return to form show four top-30s, two of them top-10s, and just one poor effort which came last year.
Look closer though and you'll see that English, weeks after winning at another tough, long course in Torrey Pines, suffered one of the very worst putting weeks of his career. It's certainly his worst in a very long time but that club is reliable in the main and he's gained strokes in 75% of starts since the beginning of 2025, including four times in five this year.
Forgiving his latest Bay Hill effort is not at all difficult, and he returns in sneaky-good form with five top-30s so far in 2026. That none of these developed into top-20s shows he's not quite managed to piece everything together, but he looks better than ever off the tee, his putting has progressed nicely, and when he dials in his approaches he'll go very close.
That could well happen at Bay Hill, where he's gained strokes with his approach shots every year since 2020, averaging +0.65 per round for that period. By way of comparison, Scheffler is at +0.82, just a fraction behind Collin Morikawa, and these of course are two of the finest iron players in the sport. At his best, English is among the next wave and he's been able to demonstrate that year after year around this course.
With two major runner-up finishes since he last played the Arnold Palmer, English returns having lived up to his own billing as a player who wants to play chess rather than darts, and the fact that one of these came at Quail Hollow further underlines how suitable this is. That week, two-time Bay Hill winner Scheffler finished first, one-time winner DeChambeau tied for second alongside English and so did outsider Davis Riley, who was eighth here a couple of years ago.
We will need to see a little more from his iron play but after a closing 65 at Riviera one week after a round of 63 in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, English looks to be coming to the boil just in time for a return to the east coast, where he remains at his most comfortable. He's one to watch this week and next and is someone I consider capable of surprising people by popping up close to the lead at Augusta, too.
I've thought a lot about siding with Si Woo Kim based on this shift towards the accurate over the powerful. He's been among the most improved players in the game since the autumn, certainly among the best ball-strikers, and as three of his four wins came at courses with bermuda greens, there's an argument that the move back to Florida could suit him just as it might English.
However, 30 of his 31 rounds at Bay Hill have been 70-plus and while conditions are tough here, he'll surely need to break 70 at least once, likely more, to win this tournament. Given that he took backwards steps at Pebble Beach and Riviera, there are enough reasons to avoid the temptation to side with someone who, like Henley last year, ought to hit more than his share of greens.
Hovland hinting at latest revival
Whoever does win this title will likely have done that – not since McIlroy's lights-out putting in 2018 has a champion ranked outside the top 10 for greens in regulation – and as Matt Fitzpatrick sits behind only Scheffler in this season's statistics, there's a fine case to be made for another player who prefers tough conditions. He's been runner-up here and defied an opening 78 to finish 22nd last year, too.
However the market has cottoned onto Fitzpatrick's excellent long-game (20/1 from 33s and bigger at Riviera) without factoring in the risk that he continues to putt poorly, so I'll side with VIKTOR HOVLAND instead.
Undeniably disappointing when well-fancied at Pebble Beach, Hovland has almost doubled in price again and just as he won the Valspar Championship last year when drifting out of sight, he can do so here at Bay Hill.
It is a really good course for Hovland, who perhaps ought to have denied Scheffler here four years ago having led at halfway, then was in front through 54 holes the following year but stumbled to finish 10th. He'd been third at halfway in 2021, too, and there's no doubt we're going to need to avoid another poor final round.
Still, Bay Hill being a test of 'can you hit this ball to that spot' makes it ideal for his game, one that has been showing signs of promise for a while now. He certainly has been hitting quality approach shots for a sustained period and with his driving better at Riviera, where short-game problems persisted, more of the same should keep him away from danger for the most part.
Around here that's worth a lot and with some of his best putting displays in recent memory having come on bermuda greens, no doubt the change in surfaces will be welcome after a couple of weeks of toil in California. Likewise, the test around them here is more hit and hope than one of imagination and that is another small factor in his favour.
Hovland said there that his game was 'definitely making progress', which goes down as confidence given the way he usually talks about his own swing, but it was another line I found especially compelling. Speaking about Riviera, he said: "It definitely suits my game in terms of hitting a lot of mid to long irons into these greens, whether it's soft like it is now or whether it's firm, I feel like it does give me an edge."
You could just as well apply that logic to Bay Hill, where his approach play was outstanding even in a missed cut last year, whereas Riviera really did play into the hands of the bombers in the end.
Hovland right now is a largely accurate driver who excels with his approach shots and he's increasingly comfortable under tough conditions, hence contending for the US Open last summer at Oakmont. Former Bay Hill winner Tyrrell Hatton was in the mix there along with several other course specialists, while Hovland is also a past champion at Muirfield Village and has been third at Quail Hollow.
All of that confirms what we know about him and I'm hopeful this test of ball-striking and patience comes along at a good time. Certainly, having been reluctant to side with him as fourth or fifth favourite at Pebble Beach, seeing him back outside the top 10 in the market makes the decision much easier. Perhaps he'll do his bit by starting much better this time.
Keep the faith in Aberg
Rickie Fowler's mini-renaissance hasn't been talked about much but the betting reflects some eye-catching play in California, where he produced his best ever Pebble Beach result and wasn't far off that level at Riviera. He's been driving the ball well for a long time now and with his iron play typically above-average at this golf course can add another solid finish, without screaming value at 40/1.
To my eye there's much greater upside with LUDVIG ABERG at the same odds so we'll stick with him after another eye-catching display at Riviera.
Defending a title he won at Torrey Pines and doing so at a course he'd only played once before, Aberg started slowly but finished strongly for the second week in a row, producing some very strong tee-to-green numbers in a final-round 66 for 20th place.
Perhaps he can avoid playing himself out of this on day one and his greater familiarity with the course could certainly help. Aberg has played here three times, all of them top-25 finishes including one as an amateur, but knew it already from the Palmer Cup in which he produced a star performance for Europe.
Returning for the Arnold Palmer Invitational he's always putted well here and that's a source of encouragement given that everything else about the place ought to fit. Aberg is a really strong driver whose mid-to-long irons are excellent, and his approach play has improved throughout each start so far this year.
It has admittedly been a bit stop-start so far but Aberg ended 2025 in top form, almost winning the DP World Tour Championship after a string of solid finishes and a good Ryder Cup display, and there's much more to come from him this spring.
Perhaps he'll take more small steps from 20th in the Genesis Invitational to near the top of the leaderboard at Augusta, but I want to be taking these big prices about him making a big leap, which he's well capable of doing at a course like this one. Avoid the big number and he'll go well I think.
Pierceson Coody finished 14th here three year ago and returns with his career now taking off. Five top-20s in six so far this year mark him down as one of the form players of the PGA Tour, certainly among its strongest ball-strikers, and he'll look to emulate Jacob Bridgeman in breaking through in a Signature Event rather than something smaller.
He's very hard to resist but I'll keep hoping that breakthrough comes in something like the Houston Open or maybe even when Doral makes its return, with these courses seemingly even better for his power-packed game. Were Bay Hill to pivot back towards that profile he'd become even more interesting but for now the sensible choice is to hold fire and hope to get him right in the months ahead.
Among those at bigger prices I came closest to giving Daniel Berger another chance after yet more quality approach play last week, while Bud Cauley has been sixth and fourth on his last two starts in Florida and played well here on debut a long time ago. He's always been a good mid-iron player and will likely improve for the return to the east coast at some stage, his five top-10s since returning from injury having come in Florida, Texas, and Mississippi.
But while the last two Signature Events caused minor surprises, they were that: minor. These Signature Events don't offer a great deal of scope for something out of the ordinary, so I'll stick to three players with recent experience contending for majors, at a course which prides itself on providing that level of challenge.
Posted at 09:00 GMT on 03/03/26
More golf content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.