Three young stars, all of them winners late in 2025, can make life difficult for Rory McIlroy at this week's Dubai Desert Classic.
Golf betting tips: Dubai Desert Classic
3pts e.w. David Puig at 20/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
3pts e.w. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 25/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
2pts e.w. Tom McKibbin at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Nacho Elvira's 125/1 victory in the Dubai Invitational owed much to Shane Lowry's finish, but it's yet another clear indication that the top players are just that little bit more vulnerable on their first starts back after Christmas.
Over the years we've had Pablo Larrazabal and Gary Stal topple big names in Abu Dhabi, though none of them as big as when Robert Rock stared down Tiger Woods back in 2012. Rory McIlroy has lost a play-off to Graeme Storm and now Lowry, a major champion who holed the decisive putt in the Ryder Cup last September, has fallen victim to Elvira, 10 times the price and not nearly as decorated a player.
This sort of thing can happen at any time, which is one of the sport's most endearing qualities, but it's more likely to happen first time out. McIlroy said he was using last week as 'a bit of practice' and he wasn't alone. Truth be told the same applied to Elvira, who was working through some swing issues, but the point is that uncertainty works in favour of the underdog.
Here at the Dubai Desert Classic, everything is different. It's not just that so many players have now had a scorecard back in hand and bedded in new equipment, it's that the course is one of the longest serving on the DP World Tour and we know so much more about it. That's true for many of the players and the handful without that experience will have that to overcome around the Majlis Course, one of McIlroy's favourite playgrounds.
McIlroy's first professional win came here, 17 years ago now, and the three that have since followed could easily be four, five, perhaps even six. He simply adores the place and while the 36-year-old version of that once pudgy and precocious talent can win under any conditions, these really are his favourite. Lots of drivers, six scoring holes, neither really easy nor brutally hard, well-framed fairways, and the sun invariably on his back.
The task is not complicated, you either back McIlroy or another well-prepared elite golfer, or players who play the game the way McIlroy does. Last year's champion does things differently but Tyrrell Hatton had warmed up in the Team Cup and I think we learn more about what this course demands by considering the skills of the runner-up, Daniel Hillier, plus contenders Laurie Canter, Tom McKibbin, and Niklas Norgaard.
In 2024, McIlroy had been beaten having traded long odds-on in the Dubai Invitational, then came here to make amends at the expense of Adrian Meronk and Cameron Young, two of a handful capable of competing with him off the tee. Both had played golf since Christmas: Young in Hawaii, Meronk in the Team Cup. Meronk is part of a smallish group of drawers of the ball off the tee, like McIlroy, and that's always fit this layout.
With Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Bryson DeChambeau, Haotong Li, Lucas Herbert and Alvaro Quiros all on the roll-of-honour, Stephen Gallacher a two-time champion who was among the best ball-strikers around in his pomp, likewise Rafa Cabrera-Bello for a time, and with Brandon Stone, Richard Sterne and Emiliano Grillo other sweet-hitting runners-up, we know exactly what we're looking for. And it looks a lot like McIlroy.
There aren't many good reasons to look beyond the favourite but he didn't hit the ball particularly well last week, finding water six times and not looking comfortable with new cavity-back irons and a still relatively new driver. Versus the equivalent tournament in 2024 the result was similar, but the performance not; back then he was third in strokes-gained tee-to-green and should've won, this time he was 18th of just 59 players and never really looked like doing so.
Top of my list is DAVID PUIG, who simply looks a massive danger to the favourite.
Along with Angel Ayora he does make his course debut and that could be considered a slight negative, but this is a player who was third on his debut at the Ras Al Khaimah and third on his debut at Dubai Creek too, and I don't think it'll be an issue.
Puig is made for this kind of golf, educated at Arizona State and blessed with the raw power that helped him dominate a rain-softened Australian PGA late last year, then lead the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee last week.
Also an excellent putter and with his approach play improved, he's an enormous talent and having taken up DP World Tour membership for the year, making the most of this chance to play in a Rolex Series event before LIV Golf starts again is really important.
Also fourth in Bahrain and with a couple of top-fives in Saudi Arabia, Puig has shown everything needed to believe he'll love what he sees at Emirates and I was really taken with his performance in the Dubai Invitational. That event was dominated by weaker drivers who rely on their iron play, and he showed a new side to his game in competing until the death.
He'll be much happier unleashing the big stick more often and with the forecast good after some wind on Thursday, this is a nice opportunity to take the next step in his career.
The same goes for Ayora and I've been wanting to put him up for this, but his price is no more than fair. Unlike Puig he's yet to win and he does have a weakness, the putter, which will be hard to overcome in an event of this stature.
I am such a big fan of the youngster and desperately want to be on for what feels like an inevitable first win, but the right thing to do is to hold fire. He was 50/1 for the DP World Tour Championship late last year, hasn't actually played that well since, yet has halved in price for a tournament which is probably a little bit harder to win.
Among the big four in the betting, Viktor Hovland is the one whose price makes you think twice. He's a better player than defending champion Hatton and closer to the other two than odds of 16/1 suggest, but his back-from-Christmas results read MC-31-30-4-18-22-36 and his lack of a sharpener has to be taken into account.
Preference then is for RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN, who can justify his decision to start the year in the Middle East when he could be out on the PGA Tour taking on Scottie Scheffler and co.
That's a calculated gamble from the young Dane but it may have something to do with having won the Australian Open in December, as he's not only now in the Masters and the Open but knows another big DP World Tour win and he'll be a long way towards earning a PGA Tour card for 2027 via this pathway, never mind the FedExCup.
It may also be that he wanted another crack at the Dubai Desert Classic having closed with a round of 66 for 10th place on debut, despite a poor preparation in the previous week's Team Cup, and having putted poorly.
That club was the problem in last week's Dubai Invitational, a tournament won by the best putter in the field, but if he can nudge it back the right side of average then Neergaard-Petersen could land a quick-fire double, having impressed when downing Cam Smith in Australia.
Though not the biggest, he's certainly long enough off the tee, ranking among the best five drivers on the DP World Tour in his rookie season, his iron play isn't far behind, and he's a quality scrambler for good measure. I have him down as another Fleetwood in the making and like the Englishman, long-term success will depend on becoming more reliable on the greens.
For now that's a concern I'm happy to take on board, particularly with Thursday's winds set to make this a pretty tough renewal. The greens firm up as the week goes on here, typically serving up a tricky weekend these days, and I think conditions are a big positive for RNP. That goes for the wind, too, as he showed in Australia, at college in Oklahoma, and at plenty of other stops in-between.
He's just one step ahead of Ayora for now, as he was during their HotelPlanner Tour campaign, and therefore has to be the call at the prices.
Nicolai Hojgaard has a top-10 finish here plus wins at Al Hamra and the Earth Course. Just two months ago he went off 16/1 for the DP World Tour Championship at the latter, backed off the boards and considered as likely a winner as the eventual one, Matt Fitzpatrick, so having played only once since he's taken quite the walk in the betting.
That though reflects a shocking driving display when almost last at Dubai Creek and while this course will suit him much better, concerns that he needs more time to get to grips with his new driver are too strong to ignore.
TOM MCKIBBIN on the other hand has continued to look good with that club either side of Christmas and is another recent winner with the potential to take a big step forward by capturing this title.
He'd dearly love to emulate his mentor McIlroy by doing so and having been a good 14th behind him in 2024, made it nine straight rounds of par or better around here to take sixth place in 2025.
Both of these saw McKibbin produce elite numbers off the tee and more of the same should ensure that he improves on a midfield finish at a far less suitable course in the Dubai Invitational, which is what he did here two years ago.
His iron play is a source of concern but while I'd never be one to undermine that most vital aspect of the game, I do think there's a path to winning this tournament without excelling in it. It's possible to pick off plenty of chip-and-putt birdies here and McKibbin was very sharp around the greens last week, a tournament in which he improved with every round.
Up now to 75th in the world and dominant in winning the Hong Kong Open late last year to secure invites to the Masters and the Open, a good week here should guarantee that he's also in the PGA Championship while going a long way to securing a clean sweep of major starts for the first time in his career.
Both his wins have been at courses where he can unleash off the tee – Fanling was atypically soft, dominated by long drivers – and as a big fan of the Northern Irishman, I have to take this opportunity to side with him again under what are his ideal conditions.
Yes, he's a good way shorter than when landing the place money for us last year, but he's kept on improving since.
Daniel Hillier and Thorbjorn Olesen round out the obvious ones near the front of the market and I suspect for most DP World Tour punters, this week will be about taking your pick of these players or else rowing in with Rory alone.
The Dubai Desert Classic is rare on this circuit in being an event which is very easy to profile, and I can't provide any real negatives for those two former British Masters champions, with the Belfry an undeniably good guide to this. Olesen did a lot right last week after a slow start while Hillier, who has never been better, should draw great confidence from the way he kept to the task over the final few holes.
It's this strength in the first 10 or so names in the betting which tempers enthusiasm in anything too speculative, especially with elite amateur Christiaan Maas so well found in the betting. Indeed if you were looking to side with the South African, who won a big title in runaway fashion late last year, you surely have to consider pivoting to Amateur champion Ethan Fang at more than twice the price.
Perhaps one of them might emulate Ludvig Aberg (2023) and David Ford (2025), who were both amateurs when leading after round one of this event, and it's a market I am interested in this week because of the weather forecast. Maybe we'll be able to revisit it should a potential draw bias emerge, but one way or another it's worth having an eye on Dustin Johnson, who often starts well back from a break before fading.
Among the rest, Niklas Norgaard played well over the final two rounds last week and closed with a 66 for fourth in this last year. He's another Belfry winner with upside but his approach play has been a horrendous mess for months now, so more sensible options are in-form Julien Guerrier, and the forgotten young Spaniard, Eugenio Chacarra.
The latter struggled in the Friday winds last week but is driving the ball better, his approach play is back where it was when he won in India last year, and he was third in South Africa to begin the new season. He's not quite as convincing a course fit as fellow first-timers Puig and Ayora, but if he plays the par-fives as well as he did last week then he may not be far behind his compatriots come the weekend.
Posted at 19:00 GMT on 19/01/26
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