Louis Bollard takes an early look at this weekend's Monaco Grand Prix, where home driver Charles Leclerc can upstage the Red Bulls and win this race at last.
As part of our new F1 preview package, Louis will return on Saturday with a post-qualifying look at the markets. Get more from Louis at f1tipster.com.
Formula One betting tips: Monaco Prix
2pts Charles Leclerc to win the Monaco Grand Prix at 5/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt e.w. Lewis Hamilton to be the fastest qualifier at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pt e.w. George Russell to be the fastest qualifier at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
4pts Kevin Magnussen to finish above Nico Hulkenberg in the drivers' standings at 2/1 (General)
After three weeks off we arrive in the principality for the Monaco Grand Prix. Monaco is unique. No other circuit shares its same tight and twisty nature. While the race may not be the most entertaining, it is a fascinating betting prospect as the outright market doesn’t resemble the previous five races of the season. A red flag is 1/2 to occur, and with rain predicted I won’t be backing against it.
Teams do not build their car for this track, which means the running order can shuffle here. The Red Bull is a beast on nearly every type of track, but Monaco may be able to tame it. Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez won't have their usual six-tenths advantage over the field here as the Red Bull won't be able to utilise its main strength, straight-line speed.
Charles Leclerc to win
The best way to take advantage of this is to back Monaco native CHARLES LECLERC.
So far this season the Ferrari has proven to be superior to the Red Bull around slow-speed corners (in Monaco, all the corners are slow). This, combined with Ferrari’s ability to heat up their tyres effectively gives Leclerc a great chance to be on pole position. Bookies have reflected this with a general 7/4 to be fastest on Saturday.
Leclerc has qualified on pole here for the past two seasons yet failed to convert either due to being unable to start the race in 2021 and the rare-spotted Ferrari strategic error in 2022. He is perfectly placed to get redemption and finally secure a home win this year.
At the start of the week, Leclerc and Fernando Alonso were both double-figure prices but have since halved in price. While this is also Alonso's best chance of a race win in 10 years at these prices I prefer Leclerc for the reasons above.
Lewis Hamilton/George Russell fastest qualifier
The market has overreacted to Mercedes having two tough races in Baku and Miami, giving us value on both LEWIS HAMILTON and GEORGE RUSSELL in Saturday's qualifying session.
Only three races ago, in Australia, the two Mercedes drivers managed to qualify second and third on the grid. They are bringing a big upgrade to Monaco which will involve them moving away from their zero side-pods concept. Whether this has an immediate impact or not is yet to be seen but at 66/1 each these drivers represent value to get into the top three in qualifying.
Rain is forecast for the weekend which can add a bit of variability and potentially help one of the Mercedes get into the top three on Saturday, with pole position not out of the question.
Kevin Magnussen to finish above Nico Hulkenberg this season
Nico Hulkenberg currently leads KEVIN MAGNUSSEN by four points in the F1 Drivers' Championship, but Hulkenberg's points were all scored in the chaotic Australian Grand Prix. Magnussen is up 4-1 on Hulkenberg in race finishes despite the German being stronger in qualifying.
Hulkenberg's strong qualifying performances are a product of his choice of setup, using the tyres more on a Saturday to get a good grid spot but sacrificing Sunday. Points are scored on Sundays not Saturdays though and over time we should see Magnussen take over.
Magnussen has two points finishes so far and is more likely to take advantage of bigger point-scoring opportunities for Haas than his teammate. 'The Little Viking', as Guenther Steiner calls him, should arguably be the favourite in this market so it's time to get on board at 2/1.
How will the other big names fare?
Max Verstappen: Will be less optimistic of a win here than anywhere else this season and he faces plenty of challengers. His teammate excels on street tracks too. The biggest price he’s been all year.
Sergio Perez: Excels at street tracks. Got lucky here last year. Will be in the mix but more than his teammate to fear this weekend.
Fernando Alonso: Best chance of a win in 10 years. His car loves slow corners. He mentioned to the Red Bull drivers that they should 'wait for Monaco' when he finished third to them in Miami. Has since tweeted this ominous message. Genuine win chance on pace.
Carlos Sainz: Getting more comfortable in the 2023 car. Non-sprint weekend will help. Still has a bit to find with teammate.
Lando Norris: Upgrades brought to Miami did not suit the track. Car has shown promise in slow-speed corners which is a plus. Will be hopeful of challenging Alpine.
Alex Albon: Lack of downforce on car means they will struggle here more than traditional tracks. May set the fastest race speed which is a 17/2 shot in places.
When does the Monaco Grand Prix start and what TV channel is it on?
The Monaco Grand Prix will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the United Kingdom - and ESPN in the United States.
Friday May 25
- Practice One: 1230 BST
- Practice Two: 1600 BST
Saturday, May 26
- Practice Three: 1130 BST
- Qualifying: 1500 BST
Sunday, May 27
- Monaco Grand Prix race: 1400 BST
Posted at 2035 on 24/05/23
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