F1 expert Louis Bollard has made a flying start to the season and sticks to a winning formula for the Japanese Grand Prix.
F1 betting tips: Japanese Grand Prix
3pts e.w. Kimi Antonelli to win the race at 100/30 (Sky Bet 1/3 1,2)
1.5pts Isack Hadjar to beat Max Verstappen at 4/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Isack Hadjar to finish on the podium at 33/1 (Unibet)
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With Grand Prix cancellations in the Middle East we are now faced with only two races over the next two months. This gap will help teams to catch up with new regulations who have started the season with problems but hinders any early advantage some teams have gained. For this week however we should expect the trend of the last two races to continue.
Suzuka sits in between Shanghai and Melbourne on the energy management spectrum, meaning that that cars won't be as starved as energy as in Melbourne but recharging won't be as easy as in China.
Keep it up, Kimi
Why fix something that's not broken? That's right I'm backing KIMI ANTONELLI again this weekend. The Mercedes has shown itself to easily be the class of the field and with limited upgrades for other cars this weekend can make hay while the sun still shines.
George Russell had power unit problems in qualifying last time out but Antonelli had the pace for pole position and produced dominant win irrespective of his teammate. The discrepancy in odds between the two Mercedes drivers is still too big and I'll be cheering the young Italian on for a third weekend in a row.
Interesting Isack
It has been a far from straightforward start to the season for the Red Bull rookie, which has included a DNF, a top three in qualifying and a great recovery after a first lap spin. There has though been enough evidence to take some of the bigger prices on ISACK HADJAR.
Reliability and being overweight have been issues for Red Bull, with Max Verstappen making no secret of his qualms with this car and regulation set. Red Bull are one of the only teams bringing an upgrade package this weekend which could propel them into a battle with Ferrari, or at least be there to pick up the podium pieces should there be any trouble up front.
Unlike in the past seven seasons, the lead Red Bull is not a certainty to be Verstappen. With the methods for driving these cars radically different from what we've seen before we are seeing the closest match up the Dutchman has had since Daniel Ricciardo.
Throw the high likelihood of reliability problems and issues off the start line and this matchup becomes even closer. Hadjar is as big as 12/1 to get the better of Verstappen over the season which is tempting given Verstappen seems as disinterested in Formula One as he ever has been, and is competing in the Nurburgring on a part-time basis now.
Other drivers' chances
Lewis Hamilton
The most upbeat he's been in years. The lighter cars are suiting him down the to ground. The new qualifying setup has erased his Saturday deficit to his teammate. Expect a similar weekend of getting into the lead and hassling Mercedes for a while before dropping back. Great podium chance again.
Oscar Piastri
Where to begin? Yet to start a Grand Prix this season but has shown positive signs. Especially in Melbourne before binging it on the warmup lap. 2/1 available for him to win the teammate battle over the season which is disrespectful. I don't have too much between him and Lando Norris. No reason to see them trouble the podium spots this weekend however.
Williams (Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon)
No secret that the car is significantly overweight. Excellent race by Sainz last time out to score points with a driver or the day performance. Will be one of the teams to benefit from the cancellations so they can focus on putting the car on a diet. Miami awaits.
Aston Martin
Car vibrations are still an health hazard to the drivers, alongside a myriad of other power unit problems. Home race for Honda here and it's set to be the most disappointing. Will be happy with the race cancellations not only because it gives them time to fix the car, but it also shields them from embarrassment. Will be nowhere again.
Posted at 13:40 GMT on 26/03/26
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