Louis Bollard's is back ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix, selecting bets at 9/1 and 22/1 for Friday's qualifying and Saturday's Sprint.
Formula One betting tips: Belgian Grand Prix
1pt e.w. Charles Leclerc Sprint Shootout Winner at 22/1 (Sky Bet - 1/3 1,2)
1pt e.w. Lando Norris Fastest Qualifier at 9/1 (General - 1/3 odds 1,2)
Norris and McLaren can keep foot down
McLaren were 5/2 for a double points finish only two races ago, now LANDO NORRIS is the second favourite in the outright market. This shows the rapid progress they have made after a torrid start to the season. They will finish the season above Alpine and should make easy work of the 97-point deficit to Aston Martin before the end of the campaign. They are here to stay at the front for the remainder of 2023.
Red Bull have shifted focus to 2024 as they start to feel the impact of their penalty from breaching the 2021 cost cap. In contrast, McLaren will only get stronger in the next few races as they optimise their upgrade package. McLaren did not know what to expect going to Hungary, prior to their upgrade, this would have been one of their worst tracks on paper. Spa is the opposite; the McLaren will relish the high-speed nature of their circuit.
In the Hungarian post-race press conference, Verstappen joked that camera crews should plant themselves at the famous corner “Pouhon” to watch the McLaren stay full throttle. This shows that the Red Bull driver is envious of the high-speed characteristics of the McLaren.
The Red Bull’s qualifying performance has been significantly worse than its race performance and I will be backing LANDO NORRIS TO BE FASTEST QUALIFIER because:
- Since the upgrades, McLaren has been 0.02 and 0.01 seconds off the lead Red Bull in qualifying
- Norris still has some time in hand over Piastri over a single lap
- This track will suit McLaren and will not suit Mercedes
- Verstappen is the same price to win qualifying as he is to win on Sunday. Given he was beaten to pole last weekend and only marginally on pole in the two-races prior, there is value in backing against him
- Perez has not qualified higher than 9th in the past 6 races
Leclerc worth chancing in sprint
For all the same reasons mentioned above, I will be taking CHARLES LECLERC TO WIN THE SPRINT SHOOTOUT. The reason I’m taking him for the Sprint Shootout instead of qualifying is because of the bigger price available. There is no reason why he couldn’t get in the mix in Friday qualifying.
Hungary was another poor weekend for Ferrari finishing over 70 seconds behind the winner. But similar to McLaren, I expect them to be much closer to the Red Bull in qualifying around Spa. Leclerc performs best over one lap on sprint weekends where car setups cannot be altered after qualifying on the Friday.
There have already been two sprint events this year. Leclerc took pole and the sprint shootout win in Azerbaijan. In Austria he qualified second and was 0.04 off pole. I expect him to be comfortable with the car after the one practice session and be up there with the Red Bull and McLaren on single lap pace.
Other Drivers Chances
Max Verstappen: Only risk of him not winning is weather. May take an engine grid penalty but will still win if starting last. Track is very easy to overtake.
Sergio Perez: He will be happy to be back on the podium in Hungary but is still underperforming in this car. Will be easy to recover from another lowly grid position. I expect him to take an engine grid penalty as he has used up some of his quota of components.
Lewis Hamilton: Car loved Hungary when on low fuel. Different prospect this weekend. Podium on merit very unlikely.
Fernando Alonso: Car has lost its way. He is blaming the performance drop off on tyre compounds. Top 6 on merit would be a strong weekend.
Alex Albon: Has been looking forward to this track all season. 5/4 for points finish and as short as 20/1 to win practice. Points a minimum for him to be happy with this weekend. Could go very well and beat some big guns.
Daniel Riccardo: Sensational weekend in Hungary to beat his teammate comfortably after being involved in the first lap chaos. Car will struggle to get points but the 5/2 for top 12 is realistic.
When does the Belgian Grand Prix start and what TV channel is it on?
The Belgian Grand Prix will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the United Kingdom - and ESPN in the United States.
Friday July 28
- Practice One: 12:30 BST
- Qualifying: 16:00 BST
Saturday July 29
- Sprint shootout: 11:00 BST
- Sprint: 15:30 BST
Sunday July 30
- Race: 14:00 BST
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