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Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifiers
1.5pts Neco Williams to win 2+ fouls at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Neco Williams 2+ total shots at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Wales to win to nil at 9/5 (BetVictor)
Wales blew their chances of automatic qualification late in the campaign, drawing the final two matches - in Armenia and at home to Turkey - when two wins would have seen them advance.
Goals continue to be hard to come by for the Dragons, netting 10 times in their eight group games, highlighting their conservative approach under Rob Page.
Finland won six of their 10 group games, but four of those came against group no-hopers San Marino and Northern Ireland.
The Eagle-owls won three of their five away games, but did lose to the two sides who qualified (Denmark and Slovenia), conceding three in both of those clashes.
What are the best bets?
An aging Finland look poor in their last qualifier against San Marino, hardly putting the perennial minnows away in their 2-1 victory. The Finns did most of their good work in the group stage against the two worst sides with performances against those who finished in the top four pretty concerning.
Across such games they averaged just 0.71 xGF per game - a shocking attacking output that highlights their struggles to create chances. They are a defence-first team, and their 1.32 xGA per game across those matches is to be seen as a positive, but that lack of quality up top will hurt them.
That's because Wales are equally stingy in defence, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Page's side keep out their visitors in this one. The question then becomes, can Wales score?
I think, given their in-form attacking trio of Harry Wilson, Brennan Johnson and Keiffer Moore, plus the raucous crowd in Cardiff, the answer is yes, so WALES TO WIN TO NIL appeals at 9/5.
Watch Williams
With Wales set to play a back five with wing-backs, bets involving NECO WILLIAMS appeal.
He plays as the left-sided wing-back for his country, meaning as a right-footed player he naturally drifts inside.
This sees him pull the trigger often when he gets high up the field, drifting towards the busy centre of the pitch, making his SHOT and FOULS WON prices look big here.
We can back Williams to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 11/8 which looks large given he's averaged 2.09 shots per 90 in qualifying. This bet landed in four of his seven starts, failing to hit the required line against only Turkey (twice) and Croatia - better opponents than Finland.
His 11/10 price TO WIN 2+ FOULS is also worth backing, with the Nottingham Forest wing-back winning 1.95 fouls per 90 in his sides qualifying campaign. This bet landed in five of his seven starts.
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Wales to win
- Neco Williams 2+ total shots
- Neco Williams to win 2+ fouls
- 50+ booking points
The referee for this crucial Euro knockout game is a good one for card backers - Istvan Kovacs. He has dished an average of 5.5 per game this season, but when isolating just continental matches (Euro qualifiers, UCL etc.) that figure rises to 5.9.
Wales group games averaged a huge 5.5 cards per game, so 50+ booking points seems a possibility given the stakes of this clash.
Team news
Wales will be without two defensive players for Thursday after both Joe Low and Ben Cabango withdrew from the squad. Aaron Ramsey earned a surprise call-up despite battling injuries all season, and barely playing for Cardiff of late.
Goalkeeper is a problem position for Page, with all of his chosen stoppers on the fringes for their club this season, but it's likely Danny Ward will be given the nod to start here.
Finland will be without Robert Taylor who has withdrawn, while striker Marcus Forss is a doubt with a leg injury.
Predicted line-ups
Wales: Ward; Mepham, Rodon, Davies; Roberts, Ampadu, Levitt, Williams; Wilson, Johnson; Moore
Finland: Hradecky; Soiri, Hoskonen, Jensen, Uronen; Kamara, Schuller, Jensen; Lod, Pukki, Pohjanpalo
Match facts
- This will be Wales’ 16th meeting with Finland in all competitions – excluding the home nations and Republic of Ireland, they’ve only ever faced Czechia (18), Belgium (17) and Germany (17) more often.
- Wales are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Finland in all competitions, most recently a 0-0 draw in a friendly in September 2021.
- Finland lost their last away game against Wales 3-1 in November 2020. Prior to this, they had been unbeaten each of their last five such visits (W2 D3).
- Wales have won their last two competitive meetings with Finland, both in the UEFA Nations League in 2020. They’ve never won three in a row against them before.
- Wales have never won a European Championship play-off match, drawing and losing against each of Hungary in 1962/1963, Yugoslavia in 1976 and Russia in 2003. However, they did qualify for the 2022 World Cup via the play-offs.
- This is Finland’s first ever appearance in the play-off rounds for either the World Cup or European Championship. They won six games in the group stages, their joint-most ever in a single EURO/World Cup qualifying campaign.
- Daniel James has been involved in five goals in his last five home appearances for Wales (1 goal, 4 assists), scoring or assisting every 55 minutes across those appearances.
- Teemu Pukki – who is Finland’s all-time leading scorer (39) and has won the second-most caps (118) behind Jari Litmanen (137) – has been involved in 17 goals in his last 18 UEFA European Championship qualifying appearances (12 goals, 5 assists).
Odds correct at 1510 GMT (19/03/24)
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