Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Tottenham or Draw (Double Chance) at 17/20 (William Hill)
BuildABet @ 19/1
- Tottenham to win
- Heung-min Son 1+ shots on target
- James Maddison 1+ shots on target
- Djed Spence 3+ tackles
- Matheus Nunes to commit 2+ fouls
It was all going so well!
Manchester City were the team to stop again. Pep Guardiola had been right to choose not to strengthen the squad, but simply swap in Savinho for Julian Alvarez. The 10 wins, three draws and a Community Shield victory were all the proof we ever needed.
I wonder just how many sleepless nights Guardiola has had over his decision to play a severely weakened team at Tottenham in the Carabao Cup on October 30. An XI that included no recognised striker, James McAtee and Nico O'Reilly.
That 2-1 defeat was the first of five in a row, with the fifth again at the hands of Spurs, a 4-0 home thrashing that ended City's 52-match unbeaten record at The Etihad.
They have simply never recovered, and have in fact reached new nadirs impossible to imagine at the time.
For Tottenham, that remains the zenith of their campaign. They immediately tumbled into a downward spiral that only over the past few weeks have they been able to begin escaping from.
Their turnaround, though, is far more straightforward than City's.
It's only logical that a squad ravaged by injuries, with the busiest fixture list in the top flight, has improved its form - winning three straight league games - when some players have returned to fitness and the fixture list has eased.
What are the best bets?
Where there appears to have been very little logic applied however, is in the pricing of this match.
TOTTENHAM can be backed at 23/10, and were it not for the Europa League being their obvious priority for the rest of the season, I'd be taking that price.
I still find it hard to believe Ange Postecoglou won't play a very strong team to keep the positive momentum going, but there does remain slight uncertainty with Spurs, so the more than generous 17/20 about TOTTENHAM OR DRAW on the double chance is instead advised.
Spurs were 7/5 to beat City in the Carabao Cup back in October.
That City team had lost one of their previous 50 matches. This City team have lost 14 of their last 27.
There is little point raking over old ground when it comes to the total collapse of Guardiola's side, but being blunt about their away form during this torrid spell emphasises just how overpriced Tottenham are.
City are W3 D2 L10 away from The Etihad with their three wins coming at newly-promoted Leicester and Ipswich, and League One side Leyton Orient.
Keep this one simple.
Team news
Tottenham trio James Maddison, Pedro Porro and Ben Davies were all rested against Ipswich and are expected to return. As a result it could be Destiny Udogie, Archie Gray and Mathys Tel's turns to move to the bench.
There could be changes in midfield too with Lucas Bergvall and Rodrigo Bentancur having started Spurs' past three games.
Dominic Solanke, Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero, Radu Dragusin and Richarlison are all still missing but Timo Werner could recover from injury in time.
Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has returned to training but is unlikely to be fit to start. Oscar Bobb is also back training but not yet available to play.
Rodri, Manuel Akanji and John Stones are all out. Kevin De Bruyne is likely to miss out after starting against Liverpool.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Davies, Danso, Spence; Bentancur, Sarr; Kulusevski, Maddison, Johnson; Son.
Man City: Ederson; Nunes, Khusanov, Dias, Gvardiol; Gonzalez, Kovacic; Savinho, Silva, Doku; Marmoush.
Match facts
- Following their 4-0 win the reverse fixture, Spurs are looking to do the league double over Man City for the first time since 2021-22. They last did so without conceding in 2009-10.
- Having lost their first four Premier League games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium without scoring a single goal, Man City won this exact fixture 2-0 last season.
- Tottenham have already beaten Manchester City twice this season, 4-0 in the Premier League and 2-1 in the EFL Cup. The last team to win three games in a campaign against the reigning English champions were Man Utd (v Man City in 2019-20), while the last time Spurs did so was in 1984-85 (v Liverpool).
- Tottenham have beaten Manchester City twice and Manchester United three times in all competitions this season – no team has ever beaten both Manchester sides three times each in the same campaign before.
- Manchester City have failed to win any of their last three Premier League away games against London sides (D2 L1), having won six in a row before this. They last had a longer run without a win in the capital between February and November 2020 (4), while they last did so in the same season in 2014-15 (5).
- Tottenham have won their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 15 (D2 L10). They last won four in a row in September/October 2023.
- Son Heung-min has provided nine assists for Tottenham in the Premier League this season, including twofor Brennan Johnson in their 4-1 win against Ipswich last time out. Only in 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2023-24 has he provided more in a single campaign in the competition (10 each time).
- James Maddison (2), Pedro Porro and Brennan Johnson were on target for Tottenham in their 4-0 win over Man City in the reverse fixture. The last Spurs player to score home and away league goals against the Citizens in a single Premier League campaign was Christian Eriksen in 2017-18, while the only player to do so against the competition’s reigning champions for the club was Teddy Sheringham against Blackburn in 1995-96.
- Man City’s Erling Haaland is one away goal away from scoring 10+ home goals and 10+ away goals in three different Premier League campaigns (also 2022-23 and 2023-24). The only player to have ever done so in three consecutive seasons is Harry Kane (2015-16 to 2017-18).
- Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has scored six goals in five Premier League games in London this season. In the competition’s history, only Leeds’ Tony Yeboah has scored more in the capital in a single campaign among players to play for non-London sides (8 in 1995-96).
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (25/2/25)
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