AC Milan hold the advantage as they take on Tottenham in the Champions League. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Theo Hernandez to score anytime at 11/1 (Unibet)
1pt Harry Kane to be shown a card at 8/1 (Unibet)
Four defeats from their last six in all competitions leaves Tottenham in a vulnerable position going into their must-win encounter with AC Milan. On the flip side, their Italian opponents have won four of their last five having overcome a blip following the restart.
It feels as if the Antonio Conte era at Spurs is coming to an end, with both parties likely to be happy with a separation in the summer. That should come following elimination from the Champions League at this stage.
Milan's away form will give Tottenham some hope - and they've had good wins of their own in North London in recent weeks - but the hosts haven't done anywhere near enough to make us want to get involved at an odds-on price.
Stefano Pioli's men come into the contest on the back of a weekend defeat to Fiorentina, but as was the case with Spurs in their loss at Wolves, you wonder just how much of the focus was on this game.
They do welcome Rafael Leao back following suspension in Serie A, while Brahim Diaz could well be fit enough after scoring the crucial side when the two sides last met - he missed out at the weekend through injury.
They're in a decent position, and the prospect of this game shouldn't be a daunting one, even if they hold a lead away from home. They put in the perfect performance in that first leg.
Milan were effective in limiting Tottenham's chances, and a repeat in the early stages is required to both unsettle the crowd and open up the game.
The away side are capable of getting onto the scoresheet, and the 11/1 available on THEO HERNANDEZ TO SCORE ANYTIME is generous considering he's a player with a high shot volume.
The left wing-back has three goals on his tally this season, with one coming in the final moments of that recent loss at Fiorentina. Despite a position in defence, he's a player with the freedom to drive forward and his shows in his attacking returns.
Hernandez has returned 48 total shots in 28 Serie A and Champions League appearances so far, with his three goals coming from chances equating to 3.9 xG.
He's been a steady goalscorer for Milan in recent positions. Five were scored in 21/22, eight in 20/21 and seven in 19/20 - a decent return when we consider his position on the pitch.
Olivier Giroud has taken over penalty duties but he does have history from the spot. However, the open play threat is enough to tempt us in at the huge odds available.
Another big-priced play that looks a tad too generous based on this season is the 8/1 on HARRY KANE TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
While Kane is better known for his goalscoring - OBVIOUSLY - he has been picking up cards this season given his involvement when Spurs are out of possession.
The striker is averaging 0.8 fouls per Premier League game, leading to a total of four yellows on his tally. He was also booked in the group stage draw at Eintracht Frankfurt.
Referee Clement Turpin can be strict when required, even if he averages 2.65 across all competitions, as he dished out five yellows in his last game in this competition.
Kane has been shown at least four yellows in each of his last four Premier League seasons, and game state plays a part in this one if Tottenham are still chasing it late on.
Rather than gambling on the outcome of this one, we're backing HERNANDEZ and KANE to be involved at the prices available.
Tottenham v AC Milan best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Theo Hernandez to score anytime at 11/1 (Unibet)
- 1pt Harry Kane to be shown a card at 8/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 AC Milan (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 0855 GMT (07/03/23)
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