Football betting tips: Ligue 1
Saturday
1pt Over 10.5 corners in Lens vs Rennes (20:05) at 21/10 (BoyleSports)
It'll come as no surprise to those who have been following this column over the past few weeks that the same approach will be taken here.
I've been fascinated by the potential of corners in the right matches. Games where two styles contribute a good part, with a likely game state a significant factor too.
The main aim has been by looking at the relationship between crossing and corners. A high volume of both is what we're after, although of course the odds factor that in.
Yet, we can also see what sort of crosses teams are making. Driven crosses more likely to be deflected behind than floated crosses which are easily claimed by the goalkeeper.
A number of leagues are in focus here, with further games to come following initial publication due to odds availability.
Lens vs Rennes
- Kick-off time: 20:05 GMT, Saturday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 12/5
Lens were an unsuccessful pick in last week's column but I'm happy to go back in on them as they host Rennes this time out.
The prices certainly make it worth revisiting too, with 21/10 available on OVER 10.5 CORNERS in France's late, late kick-off on Saturday.
Will Still's side top the charts for average crosses attempted per game this season with leaders PSG the only side to see more corners.
I've targeted Rennes previously due to their new crossing-focused approach in attack following Habib Beye's appointment as their head coach.
They now average 19.33 crosses per game under him, with the figure standing at 14.88 under previous boss Jorge Sampaoli and 17.70 with Julien Stéphan at the helm before.
They took five corners in a recent win at Montpellier, with nine coming in a home with over Reims.
Lens have seen the corner count hitting double figures in 42% of home contests this season but that's largely due to the away side not contributing. With Rennes in town, it's worth siding with a higher line.
Already advised
Friday
2pts Rodez to take the most corners vs Annecy (19:00) at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Annecy vs Rodez (19:00) at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Hoffenheim to take the most corners vs St. Pauli (19:30) at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Alaves Over 5.5 corners vs Las Palmas (20:00) at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Annecy vs Rodez
- Kick-off time: 19:00 GMT, Friday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/20
Well then, this is a good tester of the approach.
We're heading into the French second tier on Friday night, a solid league for corners betting, where Annecy welcome Rodez.
The value, based on the playing styles, certainly comes in the 11/10 on RODEZ TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS.
The majority of Annecy's corners do come in home games but it's still worth siding with the visitors given their high quantity in both the crosses and corners areas.
The away side has taken the most corners in five of Annecy's last seven at home too. That could partly be down to the fact they've scored the first goal in 62% of their games this season.
For Rodez, it's 50/50 in this metric so we could well see the game state become a factor as well.
And just because Annecy appear to be more expansive in home games than they do away, I'll side with the game seeing OVER 11.5 CORNERS too.
The corner count has hit at least 11 in half of Annecy's 12 home games this season, with the same applying to seven of Rodez's 13 away.
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (14/03/25)
St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 6/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 11/5
Friday's Bundesliga offering is hardly one that will catch the attention of many but it's a significant enough game in the battle for survival.
St. Pauli are just two points above the bottom three with Hoffenheim six clear. The hosts have failed to win any of their last six games - a 1-1 draw with Wolfsburg bringing an end to a four-game losing run.
Hoffenheim have been better and the situation looks far less worrying than it was prior to the winter break.
At a best price of 7/4, with 17/10 and 13/8 prices floating elsewhere, I'm intrigued by HOFFENHEIM TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS.
It's a meeting of two sides on opposite ends of the crossing scale. Hoffenheim attempt plenty; St. Pauli do not.
Perhaps that's a slight exaggeration on St. Pauli's part because there are teams who attempt fewer but they remain on the lower end for it. The visitors are league leaders in this area.
Hoffenheim attempt an average of 22.2 per match but that figure stands at 23.0 since Christian Ilzer's appointment in mid-November.
With Hoffenheim conceding the first goal in seven of 12 on the road too, I'll side with them having the most corners.
Las Palmas vs Alaves
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: LaLiga TV
- Home 19/10 | Draw 2/1 | Away 6/4
An intriguing-looking clash to kick off the LaLiga weekend with Las Palmas hosting Alaves on Friday night.
The hosts sit 19th in the LaLiga table with Alaves one place and two points above. It's certainly a match-up where both will be desperate to grab all three points on offer.
Considering their style of play, I'm happy to take a chance on the 11/5 for ALAVES OVER 5.5 CORNERS.
Alaves rank highly in terms of crosses attempted with their seasonal average sitting at 21.44. However, a managerial change has boosted that slightly - they've averaging 22.0 crosses per match under Eduardo Coudet.
They took a total over nine corners following 30 attempted crosses in their recent draw at Mallorca and game state does play its part.
Coudet's side have conceded the first goal in five of their last six, with the 1-0 win over Villarreal last time out bringing an end to that run.
Taking Alaves to see over 4.5 corners is still an odds-against price, but I'll try and squeeze out an extra bit of value by taking them for six or more.
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (13/03/25) unless otherwise stated
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