Spezia v Verona tips: Serie A relegation play-off best bets and preview
Spezia and Verona face each other in a fight to stay in Serie A. Liam Kelly has three bets for Sunday's relegation play-off.
Football betting tips: Serie A relegation play-off
1.5pts Verona to keep a clean sheet at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Isak Hien & M'Bala Nzola to be shown a card at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts No Goalscorer at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
It's what every Serie A neutral wanted, an extension of the season thanks to a relegation play-off between Spezia and Verona.
The single leg game at Mapei Stadium, home of Sassuolo, will determine which team will remain in Italy's premier division, a split that was not made after 38 league matches.
Both teams finished on just 31 points, indicating just how desperate a campaign this has been for each team.
Coincidentally, Spezia and Verona also ended the term with only 31 goals scored, a rate that is more than worthy of relegation in most seasons.
The incredibly daunting nature of this game and the apparent lack of goal threat from both sides immediately points to a low-scoring affair.
As a result, Under 2.5 Goals is quite short, but I think there is value in some similar markets. Indeed, NO GOALSCORER makes sense at a price of 13/2.
In the second half of their season, Verona averaged just 0.74 actual goals for and 0.91 expected goals for (xGF) per game, a poor return over a sustained period.
Spezia are not much better from an attacking perspective. They scored seven goals across their last 10 Serie A fixtures, averaging 1.17 xGF per game.
Despite the slightly better numbers from Spezia, VERONA TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET rates another bet at 15/8.
If there are goals, I feel more comfortable in predicting that Verona will be the team most likely to score any, and they've shown some defensive proficiency this season, too, especially away from home.
Verona's average of a 1.25 expected goals against (xGA) per game on the road ranked seventh in Serie A, better than the likes of Atalanta, Juventus and Fiorentina.
That should serve them well in a game of huge importance.
Finally, having watched more Verona games than I care to admit this season, I can confirm the eye test matches the numbers and verify that ISAK HIEN loves an old-fashioned scrap with the opposition forward.
Hien has recorded 22 more tackles (73) and nine more fouls conceded (52) than any other teammate in Serie A this term. Verona's centre-back has been shown a card on nine occasions, too.
Spezia's striker M'BALA NZOLA should be happy to get involved in a tussle or two. He leads the club in fouls conceded (57) and collected a total eight yellows this season.
Both Hien and Nzola TO BE SHOWN A CARD should be backed, available at 7/1 on Sky Bet's BuildABet.
Spezia v Verona best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Verona to keep a clean sheet at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Isak Hien & M'Bala Nzola to be shown a card at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts No Goalscorer at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Spezia 0-1 Verona (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (09/06/23)
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