Either Spain or England will lift the Women's World Cup trophy for the first time on Sunday morning. Cam Pope previews the final, picking out his best bets.
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Football tips: Women's World Cup final
1pt Lauren James to score anytime in 90 minutes at 24/5 (William Hill)
1pt Alba Redondo to score anytime in 90 minutes at 7/2 (888 Sport)
1pt BTTS in either half in 90 minutes at 31/20 (888 Sport)
It all comes down to this.
The biggest, most thrilling and evenly contested Women’s World Cup to date ends on Sunday morning with one final salvo, with a Spain side who have banished doubts about their unity taking on an England squad who have persevered despite pre-tournament injuries and poor performances.
The two countries boast two of the world’s leading domestic leagues, with Liga F and the WSL providing three of the four Women’s Champions League semi-finalists this season, with clubmates becoming rivals at Stadium Australia.
Lucy Bronze and Keira Walsh face a whole host of Barcelona comrades, while recently departed Manchester United defender Ona Batlle comes up against Mary Earps, Ella Toone, Alessia Russo and Katie Zelem.
In short, these teams know each other well. After all, few will have forgotten that electric and controversial Euro 2022 quarter-final last July that saw Georgia Stanway grab the Lionesses a spot in the last four with an extra-time winner.
What are the best bets?
There are attractive 4/1 odds available for a Salma Paralluelo anytime goal, but don’t fall foul of the fact her two goals in Spain’s last two games both came in extra time – indeed she didn’t make it onto the pitch for much of the regulation 90, and I'm giving that punt a miss.
Initially I thought the same about England’s standout performer from the early rounds, but one stat has changed my mind and I’m now taking LAUREN JAMES TO SCORE ANYTIME IN 90 MINUTES.
The conundrum stems from Ella Toone coming good in James’ absence through suspension. The United attacking midfielder grabbed a crucial goal against Australia and has certainly staked a claim to a starting berth in the final. But crucially, the semi-final is the only time Sarina Wiegman has named an unchanged side during this tournament. The Dutch boss is not afraid to make tough judgement calls and James’ three goals so far make her difficult to leave out.
The bookies are doubtful, with William Hill offering 24/5 for her to grab a goal in 90 minutes. Almost 5s for a three-goal player to find the net on her return? That, for me, is tempting – though the gamble is whether she starts.
Ask yourself though: if she comes on for the final chapter of the 90, wouldn’t you still back her to make a difference?
Also worth considering is ALBA REDONDO TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Redondo was the under-the-radar inclusion in Jorge Vilda's attack, but her division-topping goal figures for Levante made her hard to leave out in truth and she has the highest expected goals (xG) of any Spain player at this tournament, according to FBRef.
With 4.3 xG generated in relatively modest playing time, Redondo has played her way into the starting eleven for the last three games and we can infer her three actual goals isn't quite an accurate reflection of how threatening she has been.
Does Jorge Vilda dare change a winning team, right at the last? And could she add to the tally she has built up with goals against Zambia and Switzerland? At better than threes, that's a good angle in my book.
Finally, there's another angle that has caught my eye and it's a slightly unorthodox one: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN EITHER HALF.
This is a bet that would have come in in each of Spain's three knockout games so far - in the first against the Swiss, the second against Spain and the second against Sweden.
Similarly, England's last two games have had one BTTS half - the first against Colombia and the second against Australia.
I can see the strengths of both attacks adding goals into this one and the BTTS in either half option therefore looks a strong one at 31/20.
Score prediction: Spain 2-2 England (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Team news
As we said, Lauren James is available once again for England after missing two games following her last-16 red card for a stamp on Nigeria's Michelle Alozie.
Oihane Hernandez could return for Spain after her own suspension, but replacement Olga Carmona's winning goal makes her hard to shift from her full-back role.
As it stands, neither side has any injury concerns coming into the final showdown.
Predicted line-ups
Spain: Cata, Olga, Codina, Irene, Batlle, Alexia, Abelleira, Aitana, Mariona, Redondo, Hermoso.
England: Earps, Greenwood, Bright, Carter, Daly, Bronze, Walsh, Stanway, James, Hemp, Russo.
Odds correct 1700 BST (17/08/23)
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