Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brighton to win and both teams to score at 2/1 (General)
0.5pts Pascal Gross to score anytime at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Sheffield United’s 3-1 win over Luton was the first on the road this season and only their third in total.
Those three points hoisted them to within seven points of safety but at 1/33 to go down, the bookmakers do not harbour much hope of a great escape.
Next on the roster is a Brighton side that put five past them in the FA Cup.
The Seagulls form has been patchy (4W 3D 3L) across the last 10 but it is not hard to see why they are odds on.
What are the best bets?
No top flight team has conceded more goals than Sheffield United this term. It is 60 and counting, no other team comes close to that tally with Burnley (50) the second worst.
They shipped the majority of those goals on home turf. Five teams have come to Bramall Lane and netted at least three times.
The Blades have conceded 10 goals in their last two games in S2 and their next opponents were one of the two sides to put five past them.
Sheff Utd have scored in half of their eight home defeats so at 2/1 backing BRIGHTON TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals here.
The visitors are hardly a stoic defensive unit. Only five teams have conceded more goals than Brighton and crucially all of their nine league wins have seen this bet click.
Joao Pedro, Brighton’s top goalscorer and penalty taker is ruled out of the trip to South Yorkshire. This will mean PASCAL GROSS will be on penalty duty.
The versatile German is one of the Seagulls chief goal threats netting four times this season.
The majority of his appearances have come in central midfield where he is averaging just under two shots a game.
Given Gross’ goals per 90 average (0.19), his price TO SCORE ANYTIME may not appear value but once you factor in the oppositions poor defensive record and the fact he should be on penalty duty, it looks a bet.
The discrepancy in price across the firms also suggests value, 4/1 is the biggest but it is as short as 9/5 in places.
BuildABet @ 19/1
- Brighton to win
- Both teams to score
- Pascal Gross to score anytime
- Mason Holgate to be shown a card
Mason Holgate looks a good price to be shown a card this weekend and double his tally for the Blades.
The centre back has completed as many tackles (3) as he has fouls and will be opposing one of Brighton’s trickiest players; Kaoru Mitoma.
The Japanese player averages 2.1 dribbles and draws 1.2 fouls per game.
Team news
Wilder is sweating on the fitness of Oli McBurnie, Ivo Grbic and George Baldock. Should the trio be unavailable, Cameron Archer will lead the line, Jayden Bogle will start at left back and Wes Foderingham in goal.
Rhys Norrington-Davies left the Kenilworth Road pitch in tears after injuring his hamstring again and won’t be available here. Ben Brereton Diaz is also a doubt with a hamstring injury.
Wilder opted for a back five in the last two games and is expected to do the same on Sunday with Jack Robinson and Mason Holgate flanking Anel Ahmedhovic in central defence.
Brighton welcomed back Simon Adingra from the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) and Ansu Fati and Kaoru Mitoma from injury. This is offset by injuries to Solly March, James Milner and Pedro, who scored a hattrick when the sides met in the FA Cup.
Roberto De Zerbi will also be without Jack Hinshelwood who picked up a stress fracture in training.
Predicted line-ups
Sheffield United: Foderingham; Bogle, Robinson, Ahmedhodzic, Holgate, Lowe; McAtee, Hamer, Souza, Osborn; Archer.
Brighton: Steele; Lamptey, Dunk, Van Hecke, Estupinan; Gilmour, Gross; Fati, Buonanotte, Mitoma; Welbeck.
Match facts
- Sheffield United are unbeaten in their last seven league games against Brighton (W4 D3), since a 2-1 home defeat in the Championship in January 2005.
- Brighton are winless in all five of their Premier League meetings with Sheffield United (D3 L2) – they’ve only faced Fulham (7) more often without ever winning in the competition.
- Sheffield United have conceded more home Premier League goals than any other side (31 in 12 games). In Premier League history, only West Brom in 2020-21 have shipped more goals in their first 12 home matches in a season (32).
- Brighton are winless in their last six away Premier League matches (D2 L4), their longest winless run on the road since a seven game run under Graham Potter between September and December 2021.
- At Bramall Lane in the Premier League this season, Sheffield United have faced 206 shots (17.2 per game) and 88 shots on target (7.3 per game) in just 12 matches. Since 2003-04, the only side to face more shots per game at home in a season is Wolves in 2011-12 (17.5), while the Blades’ on target faced per game number is the highest at home of any side in that time. Brighton and Hove Albion have only won one of their last six Premier League games against sides starting the day in the drop zone (D2 L3), conceding 15 goals across these matches.
- Brighton completed 394 passes in their 2-1 defeat to Spurs, a drop of 423 from their previous game against Crystal Palace (817) and enjoyed 47.5% possession. It was only the seventh time in 56 Premier League games under Roberto De Zerbi they’d had a minority possession share, with the last two times coming against Spurs (also 45.2% in December).
- In their 3-1 win over Luton, Sheffield United went two goals ahead in a Premier League game for the first time since July 2020 against Chelsea (won 3-0), ending a run of 64 games without doing so, while it was only the fourth game this season they hadn’t trailed during the match.
- Sheffield United’s Oliver McBurnie has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances at Bramall Lane but hasn’t ended on the winning side in any (D1 L3). He’s only the second player in Premier League history to score in four home appearances in a row without winning any, along with Carlton Cole between August and October 2009 for West Ham.
- Pascal Groß has been involved in nine goals in his last 11 Premier League starts for Brighton (2 goals, 7 assists). However, only one of the German’s 30 goals has come versus a newly promoted team (May 2021 vs Leeds) and he has never scored or assisted against Sheffield United in three games.
Odds correct 1330 GMT (16/02/24)
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