Sporting Life
Our best bets from across this weekend's Serie A action

Serie A tips: Weekend best bets and previews

By James Cantrill
Football
Sun September 18, 2022 · 3y ago

James Cantrill secured +3.4pts profit from Serie A last weekend, he's picked out four best bets for this weekends Italian action.

Football betting tips: Serie A

3pts Giacomo Raspadori 2+ total shots in AC Milan v Napoli at 4/6 (bet365)

2pts Over 2.5 Goals in Roma v Atalanta at 13/15 (Vbet)

1pts Giamoco Raspadori 3+ total shots in AC Milan v Napoli at 2/1 (bet365)

0.5pt Teun Koopmeiners to score anytime in Roma v Atalanta at 6/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

AC Milan v Napoli

The final bit of Saturday’s Serie A action takes place in Milan where AC welcome fellow table toppers Napoli. A battle between North and South, both sides will want to keep their pursuit of a Scudetto alive.

The visitors remain unbeaten domestically, topping the division on goal difference.

The Ciucciarelli are flying in European football as well, they followed up their 4-1 thrashing of Liverpool with a 3-0 victory over Rangers in a thrilling encounter that saw seven yellows, one red card and three penalties.

In terms of points, there is nothing to split these two sides with the hosts also on 14 having won four and drawn two of their opening games.

Milan have also enjoyed an unbeaten start to their UCL campaign, picking up a point in Salzburg and cruising past Dinamo Zagreb.

Interestingly, each of the last three meetings between these two sides have ended 1-0, AC Milan winning one and Napoli securing the lion's share of the points in the other two, both of which took place at the San Siro.

Victor Osimhen has picked up a muscle injury and looks unlikely to feature here, which should see GIACOMO RASPADORI continue to fill the void up front.

In Osimhen’s absence, Raspardori did exactly this in Napoli’s last league foray. The young attacker scored a late winner, having six attempts in total.

On Thursday at the Ibrox in the Europa League, he was only granted a 13 minute cameo from the bench, but it was enough time for the Italian international to get amongst the goals in a fine display from Gli Azzurri.

That takes his shots tally as a forward to 4.86 per 90. Playing predominantly as a midfielder at Sassuolo last season, he averaged over two per game which is why the price for him to have OVER 1.5 SHOTS appeals here.

No side in the division has averaged more shots than Napoli. They have had a total of 127 so far, hitting 25 or more in a quarter and only failing to have at least 15 once, in their 0-0 draw with Fiorentina.

In each of his starts, talisman Osimhen has hit at least two shots, averaging five per game.

If you combine the Nigerian internationals tally with Raspadori’s, Napoli’s strikers have had a total of 31 shots in six games, accumulating at least three shots in 83% of their league games.

At 2/1, I also think Raspadori’s price to have OVER 2.5 SHOTS is worth a punt. I think he is priced as an attacking midfielder, not a striker where he will be playing, which is why there is scope for value here.

Score Prediction: AC Milan 1-0 Napoli (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct 1230 BST (16/09/22)

Roma v Atalanta

Roma take on Atalanta in a mouth watering clash on Saturday evening in Italy. Their last four Serie A head-to-heads have seen 14 goals, 26 yellows and two red cards.

Jose Mourinho's side have developed a bit of a reputation as flat track bullies often dominating against the basement boys and struggling against the best. In their 14 clashes with fellow members of the top eight last campaign, they lost half.

On the whole though, there were goal landed games with three or more scored in almost two thirds of those fixtures.

At the prices available siding with goals and backing OVER 2.5 GOALS appeals in this fixture.

Any fixture involving Atalanta usually has a whiff of goals. In 18/19, 19/20 and 20/21 they topped Serie A charts for goals scored, bagging 265 over that 114 game long period with their matches averaging 3.6 goals.

There was some regression for Gian Piero Gasperini’s side last campaign, however, their games against the sides that finished in the top eight saw 37 goals scored in total with this bet clicking in eight.

Another angle that interests me is TEUN KOOPMEINERS TO SCORE ANYTIME.

The Dutch midfielder has already matched his domestic goals tally of four from last season after hitting a hattrick in his side's 3-1 victory over Torino.

In a career spanning 160 league appearances, Koopmeiners has bagged 44 times which alone makes the 6/1 about him to score anytime value.

That is without considering he tops his sides charts for shots per game (2), hitting the target seven times, only failing to register at least one shot against AC Milan.

His shoot on site approach is important for this selection, but the most crucial thing is that he is on penalties and set pieces.

Daniele Chiffi has the whistle for this one and he has awarded penalties in 17% of the Serie A games he has overseen including two in his last four.

In Roma’s 14 games against fellow top eight sides last season, they conceded four penalties while Atalanta’s won two.

Score Prediction: Roma 1-3 Atalanta (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)

Odds correct 1210 BST (16/09/22)

Weekend best bets: Serie A

  • 3pts Giacomo Raspadori 2+ total shots in AC Milan v Napoli at 6/4 (bet365)
  • 2pts Over 2.5 Goals in Roma v Atalanta at 13/15 (Vbet)
  • 1pts Giamoco Raspadori 3+ total shots in AC Milan v Napoli at 2/1 (bet365)
  • 0.5pt Teun Koopmeiners to score anytime in Roma v Atalanta at 6/1 (bet365)

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