A player card price has divided bookmakers opinions in Italy this weekend. James Cantrill has three best bets from Serie A.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
1pt Sergej Milinkovic-Savic 3+ shots in Spezia v Lazio at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Jhon Lucumi to be carded in Bologna v AC Milan at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Sassuolo to beat Juventus at 14/5 (bet365)
Sassuolo v Juventus
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 3
- Sassuolo 11/4 | Draw 12/5 | Juventus Evs
Juventus are eight points off the top four which means their best chance of Champions League qualification comes via the Europa League.
Leading 1-0 at the half stage, the Old Lady's European quarter-final clash with Sporting is still live which should see Massimiliano Allegri rotate on Sunday.
This makes their trip to the Mapei Stadium a real banana skin.
SASSUOLO have taken 20 points from their last 10 matches, beating AC Milan and Roma over that period, scoring nine goals across their trips to the San Siro and the Stadio Olimpico.
Siding with I Neroverdi TO WIN is the play here, as the visitors will have one eye to their trip to Portugal next Thursday.
Score prediction: Sassuolo 3-1 Juventus (Sky Bet odds: 28/1)
Bologna v AC Milan
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Saturday
- Bologna 23/10 | Draw 11/5 | AC Milan 5/4
Davide Massa is the most card happy referee in Italy, according to the averages anyway.
He has dished out 79 in 12 appearances, which works out at 6.08 yellows and 0.33 red cards per game.
Massa took charge of the Derby d’Italia most recently, dishing out six yellows and three reds, and has brandished at least seven cards in four of his last five appearances.
Cards should therefore be plentiful at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, and backing JHON LUCUMI TO BE SHOWN A CARD is the bet.
The Columbian is the hosts most booked player, picking up a caution in both of his last two domestic appearances taking his tally to eight for the season, a figure only four in the division can top.
The 9/2 about a booking certainly appeals, considering he is as short as 8/5 with other firms. With a card per 90 average of 0.33, I would have taken 5/2.
Score prediction: Bologna 0-2 AC Milan (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Spezia v Lazio
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 3
- Spezia 17/4 | Draw 13/5 | Lazio 7/10
Lazio's victory over Juventus extended their unbeaten run to seven games and gave them a seven point cushion over fifth placed Inter, further cementing their spot behind Napoli.
Despite winning six of those seven, three points are not guaranteed in this trip north though.
Spezia have only lost one of their last six, and the Stadio Alberto Picco has not proved to be a happy hunting ground for many this campaign with only four sides winning domestically this campaign.
Shots tend to be plentiful when the Aquilotti are involved, with no side in the Italian top flight conceding more per game (17), and only Monza have failed to hit double figures against them.
Averaging 11 shots per game, Lazio do not exactly shoot on sight. They had 12 in the reverse though, a third of which were courtesy of SERGEJ MILINKOVIC-SAVIC and his price to repeat the feat and have 3+ SHOTS appeals.
The Serb has hit this line in just 15% of his league starts but is just hitting form, finding the net in each of his last two league starts, hitting six shots in total.
Milinkovic-Savic has had at least one shot in 78% of his league appearances, hitting four in the reverse and bagging a brace.
Score prediction: Spezia 0-2 Lazio (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (12/04/23)
Odds correct at 1330 BST (12/04/23)
Odds correct at 1020 BST (14/04/23)
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