After a clean sweep and +5.2pts profit last weekend, James Cantrill looks for more winners via Serie A.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
1.5pts Ademola Lookman to score anytime in AC Milan v Atalanta at 100/30 (Unibet)
1.5pts Both Teams to Score in Empoli v Napoli at 10/11 (General)
AC Milan v Atalanta
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 2
- AC Milan 23/20 | Draw 12/5 | Atalanta 23/10
At first glance, siding with unders at the San Siro looked the play. AC Milan are amidst a bit of a barren spell, each of their last four games have ended 1-0.
Stefano Pioli's side have been on the right side of that score line in each their last three games, including their Champions League meeting with Tottenham, but were edged out by Lombardy luminaries in the Milan Derby.
Despite only finding the net three times over that period, Rossoneri generated an xG of 6.02, creating 14 'big chances' which is why I do not expect this wasteful stint to last.
Siding with a lack of goals is always an uncomfortable watch when Atalanta are involved. Le Dea - so often the league's entertainers under Gian Piero Gasperini - are a side who's matches have averaged 2.95 goals this term.
Since the turn of the year, they have already featured in a six goal thriller and a ten goal game, during which they scored eight.
Backing their talisman, ADEMOLA LOOKMAN to SCORE ANYTIME is the selection.
With compatriot Victor Osimhen racing clear, the Capocannoniere award may be out of reach.
However, with 12 league goals and a goals per 90 average of 0.78, the 100/30 about him to find the net in Milan is simply too big, especially considering the same bet is as short as 2/1 elsewhere.
Score prediction: AC Milan 1-1 Atalanta (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (22/02/23)
Empoli vs Napoli
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 2
- Empoli 13/2 | Draw 18/5 | Napoli 2/5
This segment of Napoli's campaign epitomises Luciano Spalletti.
With a 15-point gap at the top of Serie A and modest fixtures on the horizon, the Tuscan boss would have been forgiven for rotating the squad considering the Champions League knockout stages loomed.
The Little Donkeys have played Spezia, Cremonese and Sassuolo so far in February, three sides that currently sit in the bottom six.
Much to their opponents dismay, Spalletti went full strength in each. He said it was "the right behaviour" but it looks like a master stroke having avoided any key injuries.
Napoli took maximum points, scored eight goals and did not concede, and crucially maintained momentum ahead of Tuesday night's trip to Germany, before making it four wins from four in Frankfurt.
The consistent team selection is also critical to how Napoli play, with intensity in possession, aggressive counter-pressing out of possession and a very high line. Rotating too often would affect the balance of the team.
That said, with a small squad and a hectic schedule, the intensity they are playing at is tough to maintain.
The quick turnaround from Tuesday’s European action back to domestic duty within four days is a tall order. While I still think they will get the job done in Empoli, backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is the play.
Empoli have found the net in 83% of their home games this campaign, which includes two of their three games at the Carlo Castellani Stadium against the current top seven.
Score prediction: Empoli 1-3 Napoli (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (22/02/23)
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