The new Serie A season gets underway this weekend, and Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to select his best bets from across GW1.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
2pts Atalanta to beat Sampdoria at 5/6 (BetUK)
2pts Both Teams to Score in Salernitana v Roma at 19/20 (bet365)
1.5pts Fiorentina to win and Over 2.5 Goals v Cremonese at evens (General)
Salernitana v Roma
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Salernitana 6/1 | Draw 7/2 | Roma 4/9
That's right people, after you have watched two of his former teams in the Premier League go head-to-head at 16:30, you get to watch Jose Mourinho's current team at 19:45.
The Portuguese coach is in charge of Roma, and last season was fairly successful, after all, he delivered the Roman public a first European trophy in their history.
He will forever be a legend in the Italian capital, and if he were to deliver a Serie A title while at the club also, he would become a God.
Hopes are high that La Giallorossi can get closer to the teams at the top of the table this term, and that they can, at the very least, qualify for the Champions League.
They have done some nice business this summer, bringing in Paulo Dybala, Georginio Wijnaldum and full back Zeki Celik to add to a decent squad.
However, we shouldn't get carried away, as if they are to contend, Roma would need to drastically improve their underlying process from last term (1.75 xGF, 1.14 xGA per game).
We can expect them to be an entertaining follow again though, not least because of Mourinho, with goals likely to flow in Roma games, and BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals greatly in this opener given their opponent.
Salernitana literally pulled off the great escape last season.
After 23 games, they were rock bottom and 10 points from safety, but the appointment of Davide Nicola was the key to turning things around.
They collected 18 points from their final 15 games to stay up, with their underlying process transforming from the worst in the league to that of a top half team.
Salernitana went from averaging 0.89 xGF and 1.94 xGA per game to averaging 1.39 xGF and 1.54 xGA per game - an improvement of 0.9 xG per game.
They started creating plenty of chances, and were even more potent at home, posting impressive underlying numbers (1.59 xGF and 1.24 xGA per game).
We can expect similar from them this season given the manager remains the same, and it was his style and system that transformed their fortunes.
Goals flowed in Salernitana matches under Nicola, with BTTS landing in 10 of his 15 games and in six of his eight home games.
Meanwhile, Roma saw BTTS cop in 10 of 19 away matches last season, so given the continuity at both clubs, we should see plenty of goalmouth action again here.
Score prediction: Salernitana 1-2 Roma (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Sampdoria v Atalanta
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 3
- Sampdoria 7/2 | Draw 29/10 | Atalanta 8/11
It was a disappointing 21/22 season for previous high-flyers Atalanta, finishing eighth, but they were unfortunate based on underlying numbers and, particularly, injuries.
La Dea finished fourth in Infogol's xG table based on expected points (xP) and fifth in terms of expected goal difference (xGD), highlighting that performances were still at a high level, while key players Duvan Zapata and Josip Illicic missed a lot of time out injured last term.
Heading into this new season, Gian Piero Gasperini's team are fully fit and ready to go, and most importantly for a team who tend to be a selling club, they haven't just kept their squad together, but added to it.
All of this bodes well for a promising season for Atalanta, who had previously posted an underlying process that has ranked in the top four in every season since 2016/17.
They visit Sampdoria on opening weekend who have major question marks around them after a disappointing season of their own last term.
Worryingly for Samp, they ranked as the second worst team in Serie A after the appointment of Marco Giampaolo in January, averaging 1.02 xGF and 1.65 xGA per game.
If those kind of levels persist, it could be a difficult campaign for the team from Genoa, and even if they improve slightly, the prices available for an ATALANTA TO WIN represent solid value.
La Dea, despite not being themselves, still hammered Samp 4-0 in the last meeting between these sides, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similarly dominant away win here.
We are getting a best price of 5/6 with BetUK on this selection, but I would still take the 4/5 which is generally available.
Score prediction: Sampdoria 1-3 Atalanta (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Fiorentina v Cremonese
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 2
- Fiorentina 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Cremonese 7/1
One team that I am excited about this season is Fiorentina. They finished last season impressively to secure European football, and have strengthened this off-season.
Vincenzo Italiano is a progressive coach, and he now has attacking weapons at his disposal, with Luka Jovic brought in to add to the firepower of Arthur Cabral, Jonathan Ikone and Nico Gonzalez.
They will create chances and score plenty of goals this season, especially at home.
La Viola boasted the second best home record in Serie A last season, collecting 41 points from a possible 57.
That was no fluke, as Fiorentina put up the second best home underlying process in Serie A, averaging 1.98 xGF and 0.97 xGA per home game.
Opening with an away game at the Artemio Franchi Stadium could well be a baptism of fire for newly promoted Cremonese.
The Lombardy club will be playing in Serie A for the first time since 1996, but they were promoted with the worst attacking and defensive record of the teams to make the leap from Serie B.
It is fully expected that Fiorentina will prove too strong in this game, but we should also expect goals, so backing FIORENTINA TO WIN AND OVER 2.5 GOALS is the selection.
Last season, 12 of their 19 home games went over the required line, while this bet would have landed in seven of their 13 home wins.
Score prediction: Fiorentina 3-0 Cremonese (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct 1700 BST (11/08/22)
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