Football betting tips: World Cup qualifying
1pt No Goalscorer at 9/1 (General)
1pt Harry Kane 3+ fouls won at 9/5 (Paddy Power)
The response to England's underwhelming start to life under Thomas Tuchel has been curious.
These matches mean nothing apparently, it was just the same under Gareth Southgate, who across three qualification campaigns since the 2018 World Cup led a team who scored four or more goals on 15 separate occasions, including a 10-0 win in San Marino.
Have England regressed? However much anyone would like to say they haven't, or that this span of matches are somehow irrelevant, the bare facts show the opposite.
The Three Lions hit rock bottom in 2016 after being knocked out of the Euros by Iceland. The World Cup qualifying campaign that followed (with the first match overseen by Sam Allardyce) saw them produce tentative displays that mirror what we are witnessing at the moment.
They ultimately topped a very weak group, doing so in a very dull fashion. England scored an average of just 1.8 goals per game, but kept eight clean sheets in their 10 fixtures, winning eight and drawing two games.
Southgate faced a banana skin away trip to Slovenia in his second match in temporary charge, a contest that ended goalless and helped lay the foundations for his team's successful qualification.
His successor faces a very similar situation.
Whatever your take on how things have panned out so far for England's new manager, or his apparent obsession to rebrand the Three Lions as some kind of modern day Crazy Gang, it's played four, won four, no goals conceded in the games that matter. Make no mistake however, Tuesday is by far the biggest test yet.
In the sides' opening match at Euro 2024, Serbia made life incredibly difficult for England, who held firm after Jude Bellingham's early goal to win 1-0.
England's difficulties in attack have been well documented, with them scoring just six goals in four matches against Andorra (twice), Albania and Latvia. Serbia have kept five clean sheets in their last six fixtures, conceding only once in that period.
Since the Euros they have played Spain, Switzerland, Denmark and Austria at home in the Nations League - none of those sides scored.
The matches against Spain and Denmark ended in 0-0 draws, which is what we're backing here with the NO GOALSCORER market which gives us the safety net of still being a winner should an own goal be scored.
At 9/1, this looks to be hugely overpriced.
Another hallmark of the previous meeting in Gelsenkirchen was Serbia's aggression in defence, with HARRY KANE fouled six times as he was suffocated for much of the game.
Having been so successful in snuffing him out little over a year ago it's hard to imagine that tactic won't be repeated on home soil, and given it is an inviting 9/5 for KANE TO BE FOULED 3+ TIMES we should take that bet.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (08/09/25)
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