Rotherham take on Sutton in the Papa John's Trophy final at Wembley on Sunday and Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Papa John's Trophy
2pts Rotherham to beat Sutton in 90 minutes at 20/23 (BoyleSports)
The 2022 edition of the Papa John's Trophy final follows a familiar story that we have seen in recent years. A strong Sky Bet League One outfit taking on a challenger from the league below.
Rotherham are heading for a return to the Sky Bet Championship as they sit top of England's second tier. In Sutton, they face a team battling to make the League Two play-offs - although they are part of a crowded pack all aiming to finish in one of the four spots.
Sutton have proven to be a strong attacking outfit but one possessing some defensive issues. That is something a team as strong as Rotherham can exploit - it's a surprise to see the League One leaders priced up so generously to win this in 90 minutes.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Venue: Wembley Stadium
Rotherham 4/5 | Draw 13/5 | Sutton 3/1
The Millers' form has been slightly hit-and-miss but they have had the international break off to recover. They haven't played since a 3-0 home defeat to Shrewsbury on March 19 - two weeks without a game coming at the right time.
Since Rotherham last took to the pitch, Sutton have played twice - that includes a 2-0 defeat to Port Vale in their last encounter. The favourites are the more rested side for the trip to Wembley.
The statistics, alongside actual league positions, point towards Rotherham justifying their odds-on price here. If anything, it brings into question why they are such a big price for success.
Sutton's expected goals against (xGA) figure is higher than the League Two average. That will be a concern against a side boasting the best expected goals for (xGF) tally in England's third tier.
Rotherham sit top of that table by some distance, too. A strong attacking unit from the league above should be able to punish this Sutton defence.
With a best price of 20/23 on ROTHERHAM TO WIN, there is little need to look around the markets for further value.
The Millers have recent Wembley experience to call upon too and the occasion won't faze them. It's an additional advantage over a Sutton side who haven't played at the national stadium since a defeat to Bishop's Stortford in the 1981 FA Trophy final.
Rotherham have enough about them to lift the trophy following success in 90 minutes on Sunday - even with expected changes as we have seen so far.
Rotherham v Sutton best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Rotherham to beat Sutton in 90 minutes at 20/23 (BoyleSports)
Score prediction: Rotherham 2-0 Sutton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (01/04/22)
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