After delivering +13pts profit in the first meeting between Liverpool and Real Madrid, Jake Osgathorpe previews the second leg, with bets ranging from 11/10 to 3/1.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Liverpool to score first at 11/10 (General)
1pt Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 21/10 (bet365)
1pt Vinicius Junior to score anytime at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
The first leg of this tie was a crazy game of football. Excellent for the neutral, not so much for Liverpool fans.
Liverpool were beaten 5-2 at Anfield by the reigning European champions, with Real Madrid displaying an incredible amount of clinical finishing to all but put the tie to bed.
I say 'all but' because strange things do happen in the Champions League. Only last season were Real Madrid 3-1 up after an away win over Chelsea, only to be on the brink of exiting when 3-0 down at home until the 80th minute.
It wasn't so long ago that Liverpool overturned a 3-0 first leg deficit to beat Barcelona, and though that second-leg romp came at Anfield, it does show that these mad turnarounds do occur.
Real Madrid v Liverpool (agg: 5-2)
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Home 6/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 9/5
If that is to be the case, a fast start is crucial for Liverpool, and given what we have seen from Real Madrid in recent Champions League knockout games at the Bernabeu, LIVERPOOL TO SCORE FIRST appeals as the main bet of this preview.
The Reds' firepower is obvious. They have the capability to score numerous goals in a short space of time, just ask Manchester United.
Jurgen Klopp's men have averaged 2.21 xGF per game this season across league and Champions League matches, and that average drops only to 1.91 when they travel - still a lofty number.
Given the fact they need to attack to get back in the tie, we can expect a fast, front-foot start from the visitors, and Real Madrid have been caught out by such starts.
The visitors scored first in all three of Madrid's home knockout games in last season's competition, with PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City firing the first goal before the Spaniards went on to qualify.
I suspect we may see a super-fast start from the Reds and a sluggish one from Madrid, who may take a while to click into gear and could even have one eye on a huge El Clasico at the weekend.
More goals will likely follow, and a couple of anytime goalscorer picks stood out at the prices.
Firstly, Liverpool's DARWIN NUNEZ looks a touch big at 21/10 given his underlying data.
The Uruguayan has averaged a huge 0.83 xG per 95 minutes across Premier League and Champions League contests this season, and he has started to find the net more consistently.
He's bagged four in his last five and 11 in his last 20, including in the first leg against Madrid, as he continues to get into excellent scoring positions.
In a game where Liverpool 'have to go for it', taking a chance on their xG per 95 leader at a juicy price makes sense.
I also like the look of VINICIUS JUNIOR TO SCORE ANYTIME at 3/1.
As witnessed in the first leg, Vinicius is an absolute handful, and has improved his finishing greatly over the past few years.
He netted twice at Anfield, and will provide a constant outlet for his side should Liverpool look to control the ball. With the onus on the Reds' attacking, there should be a lot of space for the Brazilian on the counter attack - which he will love.
At home this season across La Liga and Champions League matches, Vini has averaged 0.67 xG per 95 minutes which is the type of figure we expect to see from a top striker, not a winger.
The 3/1 with Sky Bet looks large, especially as they have Fede Valverde - a central midfielder - at the same price.
In a game that could get stretched as Liverpool chase, chancing a few scorers appeals.
Real Madrid v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Liverpool to score first at 11/10 (General)
- 1pt Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 21/10 (bet365)
- 1pt Vinicius Junior to score anytime at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 2-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (13/03/23)
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