Real host Atletico in the first Madrid derby of the season. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture and is concentrating on the cards market for his best bet.
Football betting tips: La Liga
2pts Under 5.5 total cards at 4/5 (Unibet)
Real Madrid come into El Derbi Madrileño eight points clear at the top of La Liga and ten points ahead of their city rivals Atletico – though Diego Simeone’s men do have a game in hand.
A price of 1/5 for Carlo Ancelotti’s men to claim a 35th league title tells you all you need to know about how dominant they have been this season, losing just once in the league.
Ancelotti has done an impressive job in his short time in charge of Real. He has created a winning machine, much like the one he created during his first tenure in Madrid.
Los Blancos have won their last nine matches, finished top of their Champions League group and haven’t been beaten since the start of October.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Premier Sports
Real Madrid 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Atletico Madrid 5/2
For Atletico is has been a season of transition.
Last season’s champions have already failed to win on seven occasions already and needed a rallying smash-and-grab victory over Porto on Tuesday to ensure they didn’t exit the Champions League at the group stage.
All the ingredients have been there for Simeone’s men this term though, they have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league as well as scoring the second-most, and they rank top of the division in terms of their expected goal difference (xGD).
Atleti may have struggled to come away with victories against the league’s also-rans, but the gulf in quality between the two Madrid sides is not as stark as the league standings might suggest, and a competitive game is certainly expected at the Santiago Bernabeu.
The vast majority of Madrid derbies, and all Atletico Madrid games for that matter, are played at breaking point, one minor incident enough to flare up a mass brawl – see their victory over Porto in midweek for example.
Simeone is a master orchestrator when it comes to these big games, and his players are rarely found wanting when it comes to transferring their manager’s enthusiasm onto the pitch.
For this reason, it is worth looking at the card betting in this match, but for all the reputation that proceeds this fixture, siding with the Unders is where the value lies.
The card line currently stands at 5.5, and while it wouldn't be a huge surprise for this fixture to see six or more cautions, past history tells us it seldom does.
Only one of the last four league meetings between these two has seen more than five cards, and though Atletico predictably rank relatively high when it comes to average match cards, Real are bottom of the pile, picking up just 27 cautions and no reds across the campaign so far.
Only three of Real’s 16 fixtures this season have seen six or more bookings, while only six of Atletico’s have surpassed the 5.5 threshold.
One incident can spark a flurry of cards in a game like this, but that is hardly a guarantee, and given the statistics, as well as the fact that a couple of other firms have UNDER 5.5 TOTAL CARDS priced up at heavy odds-on, taking 4/5 about this selection makes appeal.
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Under 5.5 total cards at 4/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1255 GMT (10/12/21)
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