We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.
What are Infogol fairness ratings?
- We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
- This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.
Manchester United 3-1 Arsenal
- Infogol xG: 1.75-1.57
- Fairness rating: 70.34
- Scorers: Antony 35, Saka 60', Rashford 66', 75'
Manchester United made the most of the good scoring opportunities to earn a fourth successive victory as Premier League leaders Arsenal saw their winning start to the season ended at Old Trafford.
Marcus Rashford’s brace and a dream debut goal for deadline-day signing Antony secured the three points, but quality over quantity was the order of the day in the 3-1 victory.
Erik ten Hag's side created five big chances in the game, averaging 0.18 xG per shot.
Arsenal tried to reduce the deficit but their frustration was clear as United defended doggedly to the final whistle, limiting the visitors to only low-probability chances.
Brighton 5-2 Leicester
- Infogol xG: 3.14-1.09
- Fairness rating: 97.86
- Scorers: Iheanacho 1', Thomas (og) 10', Caicedo 15', Daka 33', Trossard 64', Mac Allister 71', 90+7'
Bottom-of-the-table Leicester failed to ease mounting pressure on manager Brendan Rodgers after their winless start was extended by a thumping 5-2 defeat at high-flying Brighton.
Leandro Trossard’s second-half finish and Alexis Mac Allister’s double – a penalty (0.80 xG) followed by a stunning late 0.05 xG free-kick – condemned the struggling Foxes to a fifth-successive Premier League defeat.
Mac Allister also had a low-probability thunderbolt disallowed after referee Tony Harrington reviewed footage on the pitch-side monitor for offside.
Leicester were outclassed for the duration of the second period and have now taken just one point from a possible 18, leading to a ‘Rodgers Out’ banner being unfurled in the disgruntled away end at full-time.
Everton 0-0 Liverpool
- Infogol xG: 1.50-1.91
- Fairness rating: 91.14
The points were shared in an enthralling Merseyside derby which saw superb goalkeeping performances from Jordan Pickford and Alisson, the frame of the goal hit four times (Liverpool three, Everton one) and 37 shots attempted.
It was the most times the woodwork had been hit and also the most shots that had been taken in a Premier League game this season.
The Infogol model calculates that there was just a 3% chance of the match ending goalless based on the xG totals accrued by each team, with a 1-1 draw or 2-1 away win the equal most likely outcomes at 9%.
But while that may be true, Liverpool were largely restricted to low probability chances by an organised and stubborn Everton defence.
Their 23 attempts on goal came at an average xG of just 0.08 per shot and the Reds failed to create a single ‘big chance’ (35%+) with their best opportunity - despite Luiz Diaz, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah all hitting the post - falling to substitute Diogo Jota (0.30) from close range deep in stoppage time.
By far the best chance of the match fell to Everton debutant Neal Maupay (0.72) who was denied superbly by Alisson.
Ultimately the performances of the Brazilian keeper and his opposite number Pickford, as well as a tight VAR call when Conor Coady had the ball in the net in the 70th minute before bring ruled offside, were the chief reasons for the match ending goalless.
After six matches Liverpool are already six points off the top of the table having played a game more.
A fourth successive draw means Everton remain winless this season but move outside the relegation zone.
Brentford 5-2 Leeds
- Infogol xG: 2.59-1.71
- Fairness rating: 79.83
- Scorers: Toney (pen) 30', 43, 58, Sinisterra 45', Roca 79', Mbuemo 80', Wissa 90
Ivan Toney's hat-trick proved to be the difference in a breathless match of high-quality chances in west London.
A penalty, free-kick and improvised finish from the striker brought up his half century of goals for Brentford, with his tally now 52 in 96 matches.
It was just the second time he has scored from outside the box in the league for the Bees, with the majority of his attempts being penalty box high probability chances, as indicated by the 52 goals coming from chances equating to 45.4 xG.
Leeds boss Jesse Marsch, who was sent off in the second half as his side chased the game, would be right to be a little concerned by his team's defensive openness at the Brentford Community Stadium.
The 2.59 xG they conceded was by far the most they have allowed so far this term and is only narrowly short of the highest amount conceded under his tenure (2.73 versus both Arsenal and Manchester City).
Chelsea 2-1 West Ham
- Infogol xG: 0.95-1.29
- Fairness rating: 70.99
- Antonio 62, Chilwell 76', Havertz 88'
Substitute Ben Chilwell was the difference, scoring and then assisting Kai Havertz, in a game of few chances as Chelsea came from a goal down to
The Blues can count themselves incredibly lucky after Maxwel Cornet was denied a late equaliser for West Ham, who on the balance of chances created warranted something from the match.
Newcastle 0-0 Crystal Palace
- Infogol xG: 3.69-1.06
- Fairness rating: 61.46
Crystal Palace somehow escaped Newcastle with a point thanks to goalkeeper Vicente Guaita making a string of excellent saves.
The best of a host of opportunities fell to club record £58m signing Alexander Isak (0.74) who was denied when through one on one. He alone generated chances equating to 1.25 expected goals, with the Sweden striker also missing a chance of 44% probability late on.
In a match which saw a total of 4.75 xG, there was just a 1% chance of the match ending 0-0, with it more likely than Newcastle would score six goals than none based on the chances created.
Nott'm Forest 2-3 Bournemouth
- Infogol xG: 1.52-0.89
- Fairness rating: 69.40
- Kouyate 33', Johnson (pen) 45, Billing 51', Solanke 63', Anthony 87'
While we usually keep each match verdict separate, it's impossible not to make the connection between Newcastle and Bournemouth when it comes to goalscoring.
The Cherries fought back from two goals at half-time down to win 3-2 at Nottingham Forest, a week on from losing 9-0 at Liverpool, to give caretaker boss Gary O’Neil a fighting chance of the permanent role.
But while that will be the story for most, from an xG perspective it was all about how unlikely that come back was.
There was just a 4.8% chance that Bournemouth would score three times from chances equating to 0.89 xG - a staggering overperformance that Forest have felt the brunt of.
According to Infogol, the probability of O'Neil's men scoring one goal or fewer, and therefore handing the home side all three points, stands at 77.6%.
Tottenham 2-1 Fulham
- Infogol xG: 2.82-0.51
- Fairness rating: 80.53
- Scorers: Hojbjerg 40', Kane 75', Mitrovic 83'
Tottenham extended their unbeaten start to the season, continuing their impressive progress under Antonio Conte.
Spurs have lost just once in their last 17 league matches but their underlying numbers for the entirety of the Italian's spell are staggeringly good.
In 34 games Tottenham are averaging 0.91 xGD per match, meaning on average they are creating almost 1.0 xG more than their opponent for a run of games stretching back to November 10.
Fulham were never really in the game in north London but that didn't stop Aleksandar Mitrovic continuing his incredible start to the season.
The Serb has scored double (6) the number of goals he managed in his last top-flight season with the Cottagers in 2020/21, after just six matches and from a little over half the xG (4.3).
Wolves 1-0 Southampton
- Infogol xG: 1.12-1.20
- Fairness rating: 67.33
- Scorers: Podence 45'
Daniel Podence secured Wolves' first Premier League win of the season in a game of few chances by scoring only their third goal of the campaign.
But the Old Gold have created chances equating to 7.3 xG, and ought to be encouraged by debutant Sasa Kalajdzic getting on the end of the biggest opportunity of the match midway through the opening period (54%).
There was little to separate the sides, with the low fairness rating a reflection of that fact.
Aston Villa 1-1 Man City
- Infogol xG: 0.26-1.79
- Fairness rating: 64.66
- Scorers: Haaland 50', Bailey 75'
Erling Haaland became only the second player in Premier League history to reach 10 goals in their first six appearances but Manchester City failed to make their dominance count as Leon Bailey secured a much-needed draw for Aston Villa.
City were caught cold by Bailey’s fizzing strike late on to end a three-match losing streak for the under-pressure Steven Gerrard.