James Cantrill picks out six stats to include in a BuildABet for Liverpool v Manchester United and recommends a roll-up priced up at 19/1.
- Over 2.5 Goals
- Marcus Rashford to score anytime
- Stefan Bajcetic to be carded
- Casemiro 3+ tackles
BACK OUR 19/1 BUILDABET WITH SKY BET
What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Liverpool 58% | Draw 20% | Man Utd 22%
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 70% | Under 30%
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 66% | No 34%
Over 2.5 Goals
At around 8/13, the market is suggesting their is a 58% that this game will see three or more goals, the Infogol model predicts there is a 70% chance, giving obvious scope for value.
The hosts defensive record this campaign is relegation worthy.
The Reds have shipped 28 goals, an average of over a goal a game, but according to their xGA, this could be closer to 39.
Offensively, they have only failed to find the net in one league fixture at Anfield.
Marcus Rashford to score anytime
Marcus Rashford has been in formidable form finding the net 17 times in his 20 appearances since the World Cup, taking his tally for club and country to 28 this campaign.
You would imagine that the frontman will be fancying his chances of adding to that tally as he pits himself against a defence that has conceded three or more goals in 21% of their league games this season.
Stefan Bajcetic to be carded
Stefan Bajcetic has forced himself into the Reds XI with some standout performances. He is tidy on the ball but dangerous off it picking up four cards in his last nine starts.
The Spaniard is as short as 9/4 to be carded on Sunday, so the 4/1 available with Sky Bet is certainly worth a punt, especially considering he will be opposing Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes.
Casemiro 3+ Tackles
Casemiro tops his sides charts for tackles, averaging 2.3 per game in the Premier League.
When the Red Devils are on the road, the Brazilian really racks them up, averaging 4.66 per game domestically and hitting this line in each of his six away starts.
Wout Weghorst 1+ Offsides
Wout Weghorst has been caught offside four times this campaign, 75% have come when Manchester United are playing away from home.
No team mate can top the big mans average of 0.7 offsides per game. He was pulled up for it twice in his sides trip to Elland Road last month.
Bruno Fernandes 1+ Shots On Target
Bruno Fernandes has had 51 efforts in the Premier League this season, 18 of which have hit the target which is an average of 0.78 per appearance.
He is not one to go missing on a big occasion and has had seven shots on target in six appearances against the big six sides.
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (03/03/23)
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