Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt e.w. Pedro Porro to score first at 28/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 26/1
Pedro Porro 1+ shots on target
Giovani Lo Celso 1+ shots on target
Yves Bissouma 3+ tackles
Bruno Guimaraes 2+ total shots
The Tottenham bubble has burst, but it can hardly be a surprise when we consider the lengthy absentee list that Ange Postecoglou currently has to deal with.
Seven members of the first team squad remain sidelined. Even with that, there will have been huge disappointment to throw away a lead in the 2-1 loss to West Ham on Thursday.
Yet, their injury complaints will get little sympathy from Newcastle, with Eddie Howe battling against multiple injuries in his own ranks.
Tottenham are desperate to return to winning ways while Newcastle haven't travelled well at all this season. It's a fascinating Super Sunday contest which could go either way.
The flying full-backs
Spurs will look to the fact that the two goals conceded last time out weren't exactly conventional.
Jarrod Bowen's close range strike took a very fortunate deflection into his path while James Ward-Prowse capitalised on an error. To use the 'on another day' cliché, Tottenham end up winning that game.
It's still not enough to tempt me into the result markets though given the mixed form of both and the prices on offer. We can't be quite certain which Tottenham team will turn up.
We do know they will continue in their set, attacking way of playing though, opening up value as ever in the goalscorer market.
As an each-way play at 28/1, PEDRO PORRO TO SCORE FIRST is interesting.
The right-back claimed an assist against West Ham as his corner was met by the head of Cristian Romero, but it was also a game where he had a season-high five total shots.
It's the fourth occasion in which he's posted at least three shots too. Games away at Arsenal and Wolves are the only ones where he's failed to have an effort registered.
Granted that not every single one of those has been on target, but it highlights exactly how advanced he can be when Spurs have possession.
Against Aston Villa, both Porro and Destiny Udogie on the left were basically attacking midfielders when Tottenham were on the attack. That should continue here.
If you're not interested in taking the big price on a goal, backing PORRO 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET is a nice starting point for a multiple given the high number of chances he's seeing per game.
Look at Lo Celso
GIOVANI LO CELSO has capitalised on his opportunity for a starting spot in this Tottenham team and could have added another to his tally against West Ham.
His effort was well saved, and he has moved back to a more advanced position given the return of some players in the defensive midfield area.
In his last three starts, Lo Celso has two goals, while also posting a total of seven shots. Adding him for 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET here provides appeal.
Four of his shots have been on target and he should see a couple of half decent chances to strike on Sunday.
Backing Bissouma
In previous Cheat Sheet columns involving Tottenham, I've spoken about how aggressive they are out of possession.
Only Crystal Palace and Everton (both 19.9) average more tackles per game than Postecoglou's side (19.6). It's the same figure for them in home contests too - an equal split.
YVES BISSOUMA is a player who contributes significantly to this number, so backing the midfielder to have 3+ TACKLES makes sense in a multiple.
He's hit this target in nine of his 13 Premier League outings this season, with four or more in the home contests against Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United.
Guimaraes goes for goal
Despite previously sitting at the top of the table, Tottenham do concede a fair amount of shots.
The average of 13.6 against is the eighth-highest in the Premier League, while the 13.4 in home games moves them up to sixth.
Newcastle will get opportunities in this game, and BRUNO GUIMARAES 2+ TOTAL SHOTS looks the value play for the visitors.
The midfielder has registered at least one shot in 12 of his 14 league outings this season, with two coming in recent contests against Chelsea and Manchester United.
Time the runs
Tottenham's attacking approach should lead to them being caught offside a couple of times at least.
No side averages more offsides per home game in England's top-flight than Tottenham (2.9). It's worth a gamble on UDOGIE 1+ OFFSIDES at a decent price of 11/2.
The left-back has been caught offside three times this season, but the opponents give us an indication of why it may land again in this game.
They came against Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United, so the intent on attacking quickly is perhaps more prominent in these sorts of fixtures.
Count the corners
Even with the availability issues, Tottenham will continue to attack and that has led to corners in their home games.
Taking TOTTENHAM 5+ CORNERS is a nice way to round off the long list of our multiple selections.
Spurs took eight against West Ham, nine against Aston Villa, 11 against Liverpool, 15 against Sheffield United and five against Manchester United in home games this season.
Team news
Two sides with long injury lists meet in Super Sunday's main contest.
Tottenham remain without Rodrigo Bentancur, Eric Dier, James Maddison, Ivan Perisic, Ryan Sessegnon, Manor Solomon and Mickey van de Ven.
There is also some concern surrounding Son Heung-min - that would be a significant blow to an already depleted squad.
Things aren't any easier at Newcastle. Elliot Anderson, Harvey Barnes, Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Sean Longstaff, Jacob Murphy, Nick Pope, Matt Targett, Joe Willock and Callum Wilson are all injured, while Sandro Tonali is still serving a suspension.
Jamaal Lascelles left the defeat to Everton early and is a doubt here. Emil Krafth, who replaced him, could be brought into the starting XI.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham XI: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Davies, Udogie; Bissouma, Sarr; Johnson, Lo Celso, Kulusevski; Son.
Newcastle XI: Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Krafth, Livramento; Guimaraes, Joelinton, Miley; Almiron, Isak, Gordon.
Match facts
- Among the 41 fixtures to be played 50+ times in the Premier League, Newcastle v Tottenham averages more goals per game than any other (3.16 – 177 goals in 56 games). Both sides have scored in each of the last seven league fixtures between the two (16 Spurs goals, 15 Newcastle), with these averaging 4.43 goals-per-game.
- Newcastle are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games in London (W4 D4) since a 5-1 defeat at Tottenham in April 2022. It’s the Magpies’ longest ever unbeaten league run in the capital.
- Tottenham have won their last three Premier League home games against sides that finished the previous season in the top four, as many as in their previous 16 (D1 L12). They’ve never won four consecutive such games in the competition before.
- Newcastle boss Eddie Howe won both of his Premier League meetings with Tottenham last season, having won just one of his first 11 against them in the competition (D2 L8).
- Against no side has Joelinton scored more Premier League goals than he has against Tottenham (3). His first ever strike in the competition came in a 1-0 win for Newcastle in this exact fixture in August 2019.
Odds correct at 1315 GMT (08/12/23)
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