Jake Pearson previews the World Cup play-off final between Portugal and North Macedonia, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: World Cup play-offs
1pt 7+ Portugal shots on target at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt 20+ Portugal shots at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
As far as Thursday nights go, last week was a pretty good one for the Portuguese, cruising past Turkey 3-1 in their World Cup play-off semi-final, while at the same time European champions Italy were beaten by a late North Macedonia goal.
It means Fernando Santos’ men are now heavy favourites to book their place at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, but this match will still take plenty of winning.
North Macedonia showed their stubbornness against Roberto Mancini’s side in Italy, but in truth were the beneficiaries of the Azzurri struggling to take any of the plethora of chances they created.
Italy dominated the ball and racked up a whopping 32 attempts across the 94 minutes.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Action
Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto (Portugal)
Portugal 1/6 | Draw 11/2 | North Macedonia 18/1
Expect a similar display from a Portugal side that is perhaps even more shot happy, with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes both enjoying a speculative effort.
That is the avenue for the two bets in this fixture, focusing on North Macedonia attempting to hold firm while the hosts bombard them with shots.
Throughout the group stage Portugal averaged 19.1 shots per game, while also boasting an average of 7.6 shots on target per match – both figures that bode well for the selections.
7+ PORTUGAL SHOTS ON TARGET is a very reachable target – a number they surpassed in five of their eight matches in qualification – and a price of 10/11 about them hitting the target that many times in a match as crucial as this makes plenty of appeal.
Away from accurate efforts, the odds-against price of 6/4 about PORTUGAL TO TAKE 20+ SHOTS also stands out.
Again, it is a figure they hit in five of their eight matches in Group A, and as the need to score increases – should North Macedonia’s defence hold out for long enough – the more attempts Portugal will rack up.
Expect the Portuguese to camp in the opposition half and pepper the North Macedonian goal with a flurry of attempts, desperately trying to book their place at the World Cup in November.
Portugal v North Macedonia best bets and score prediction
- 1pt 7+ Portugal shots on target at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt 20+ Portugal shots at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Portugal 1-0 North Macedonia (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1050 GMT (27/03/22)
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