Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Juventus to win and Under 3.5 goals at 13/8 (bet365)
1pt Alvaro Morata to score anytime at 23/10 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Alvaro Morata to score first and Juventus to win 2-0 at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Porto v Juventus
- Wednesday, 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match Odds: Home 29/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 1/1
Porto qualified from their group with relative ease, making light work of the two weaker teams in the group while also avoiding defeat in Portugal against Manchester City.
They were hugely fortunate to get a point from that game based on expected goals (xG: POR 0.04 – 2.87 MCI), and it was a dead-rubber for City, so we can’t draw too many conclusions from the result.
However, a goalless draw meant they finished the group stage with five straight clean sheets, and I suspect they will again be tough to break down.
Other than City, group C was a fairly weak group, with Marseille a struggling team in France and Olympiakos very rarely cutting it at this level, so their 13 points from six games should be taken with a pinch of salt.
This game represents a huge step up to anything they have played since the group stage finished.
Sérgio Conceição’s side do possess some real talent, but it is worth bearing in mind that despite keeping five clean sheets in the group stage, Porto allowed 1.43 expected goals against (xGA) per game, so were conceding plenty of chances despite the results suggesting the opposite.
Their attack leaves a lot to be desired, with their expected goals for (xGF) per game average of 1.20 throughout the group stage meaning they rate as the worst attacking team left in the competition.
Juventus did the extremely unlikely in their final group game at the Camp Nou. Needing to win 3-0 to qualify as group winners, the Old Lady did just that, and their reward was a tie against Porto as opposed to PSG.
Andrea Pirlo’s tenure as manager of Juve has been an interesting follow so far, with results and performances being inconsistent, but they have found a groove of late.
Since the winter break in Italy, Juve have won six and lost two, but their underlying xG process (the rate at which a team creates and concedes chances) has been very promising, with the Italian champions averaging 2.01 xGF and 0.98 xGA per game.
Only Inter Milan have played better in Serie A since the turn of the year, according to xG.
That suggests to me that Juventus are now trending in a positive direction with a clear idea and way of playing. Pirlo has opted for a 4-4-2 system in that run, which puts his best player, Cristiano Ronaldo, in his best position – centre forward.
The Champions League’s record goalscorer (132) returns to his native Portugal where he is worshiped as a God, and he has had some memorable moments in the past when playing in his home country – the rocket he scored for Manchester United in 2009 at this very stadium springs to mind.
While he has found the net four times in the competition this season, he has been outscored by teammate Alvaro Morata (6).
After some underwhelming spells in England and Spain, the Spaniard has found a home in Turin.
He has been incredibly clinical in Europe’s premier competition, but across Serie A and the UCL, he has averaged 0.45 xG per 95, suggesting he gets on the end of two decent chances per game.
Ronaldo is understandably a short price to notch here (11/10), but I think Morata can upstage his legendary teammate, and makes great appeal at 23/10 to add to his Champions League tally.
Overall, Juventus should prove too strong over 90 minutes, and have the defensive stability to hold Porto at bay.
The Italians are taken to win here, and are a fair price to do just that (11/10), but throwing in under 3.5 goals boosts the price to 13/8, and that tickles my fancy.
A very big priced bet also caught my eye in Sky Bet's Scorecast Boost section.
Alvaro Morata to score first and Juventus to win 2-0 is priced at 66/1, and I think that is worth a small stake given everything discussed; that I fancy Morata to score and Juventus to win a low-scoring game.
Score prediction: Porto 0-2 Juventus (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Porto v Juventus best bets
- Juventus to win and under 3.5 goals at 13/8 (bet365)
- Alvaro Morata to score anytime at 23/10 (Sky Bet)
- Alvaro Morata to score first and Juventus to win 2-0 at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (16/02/21)
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