Norwich are desperate for a win as they host in-form Newcastle in the Premier League. Joe Rindl has a best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Newcastle to win at 6/5 (SpreadEx, SBK)
It is win or bust time now for the Premier League’s bottom side Norwich City. The Canaries head into matchday 33 eight points behind 17th-placed Everton having played one game more.
Quite frankly anything less than a win at home to Newcastle would be a disaster at this stage of the season.
A home win though is 27/10 best price and for good reason. Norwich have tasted victory in just one of their past 11 matches. That run included nine losses and one draw.
Norwich's brief moment of hope after beating Burnley a fortnight ago was exactly that, brief.
Dean Smith’s side have won the expected goals battle (xG) only once in their past 18 league fixtures. Norwich are losing and deservedly so.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Norwich 5/2 | Draw 12/5 | Newcastle 11/10
Newcastle are as good as safe after beating Crystal Palace 1-0 last time out. The Magpies have won three straight to move to the magic 40-point mark.
It’s a testament to Eddie Howe’s turnaround of the club that they now rank seventh best on expected points per game (xP) since Boxing Day.
Newcastle have out-created their opposition in big chances across three of their past four games. In recent memory, only their 5-1 loss to Tottenham serves as a visible reminder that the North East outfit were once playing like a side headed for relegation.
Nowadays, Newcastle are a team on the rise and are a league above Norwich on current form.
Norwich made a good account of themselves in their 3-2 loss to Manchester United at the weekend, even if much of their performance can be put down to United’s lack of discipline.
Both of Norwich’s goals came from their two biggest chances in terms of xG, when United’s defence completely switched off. Without those lapses Norwich would have created just 0.91 xG instead of their 1.52.
That’s slightly under City’s average of 0.95 xGF per game this season. Goals, and with it chance creation, have been a serious problem this season.
I don’t hold out much hope for them against a Newcastle team who have conceded one goal across their last 270 minutes of football.
NEWCASTLE TO WIN at 6/5 at SpreadEx and SBK makes appeal.
Norwich v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Newcastle to win at 6/5 (SpreadEx, SBK)
Score prediction: Norwich 0-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1730 BST (21/04/22)
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