- Lewis Tomlinson (@LTRacing_) has returned over +60pts profit in his last two National League outright columns
Football betting tips: National League
National League
8pts York to win the National League at 7/4 (General)
1pt Rochdale top three finish at 9/4 (bet365)
1pt Southend top three finish at 7/2 (bet365)
1pt Hartlepool top seven finish at 5/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Halifax top seven finish at 5/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Eastleigh top seven finish at 13/5 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Mani Dieseruvwe top scorer at 12/1 (BetVictor - 1/5, 1-4)
0.5pt e.w. Paul McCallum top scorer at 33/1 ((BetVictor - 1/5, 1-4)
The top-tier of non-league returns this weekend, and hopefully we can add to a profitable couple of seasons for the outright preview.
We’ve got a new sponsor for the division; the first iteration of the Enterprise National League. But just like the old racing boys who refuse to acknowledge anything beyond the Hennessy and the Whitbread, it will always be the Vanarama for me.
We also have new teams in the division – welcome to Truro City and Brackley Town, both of whom will play in the fifth tier for the first time.
Minstermen to march to the title
Now, full disclosure – I found it much trickier to come up with confident bets this time around, including in the National League North and South, and the two prices I was most keen on whilst writing this preview have since collapsed, sending me back to the drawing board, though one thing that hasn’t changed from last year my fancy for YORK TO WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE.
The Minstermen came out on the wrong side of a protracted battle with Barnet for the title last season and capitulated at home to eventually-promoted Oldham in the play-offs, but look well placed to go one better this time around.
They finished 13 points ahead of third-placed Forest Green in 24/25 and have bolstered what was an already absurdly strong squad for the level; experienced heads Ash Palmer, Mark Kitching and Ollie Banks, all of whom have lifted the National League title in recent seasons have joined Adam Hinshelwood’s team.
The addition of Hiram Boateng from Mansfield is perhaps the biggest statement signing of all in the division, whilst Matt Uggla’s chequebook has also attracted talent from within the National League, Hartlepool’s Joe Grey, Altrincham’s Alex Newby and - most excitingly of all - former Gateshead talisman Greg Olley also relocating to the LNER this summer.
The title is priced as a two-horse race between York and newly-relegated Carlisle United, another club with a heavy-hitting budget that has been put to good use in the off-season. Regan Linney, who bagged 23 league goals last season for Altrincham, will lead the line for Mark Hughes’ side, whilst the Cumbrians will also hope David Ajiboye can recapture the electric form he showed as part of the title-winning Sutton side.
Nevertheless, relegated clubs have a poor record when it comes to bouncing back at the first attempt and I have concerns about the manager’s unfamiliarity with this league compared to the proven record of York boss Adam Hinshelwood. I very much umm’ed and ahh’ed about recommending them at a price that has contracted so significantly – still 3/1 second-favourites when the foundations of this column were laid - but I still don’t think all the juice has been squeezed from York’s price at 7/4. I find it ridiculously hard to see them beat.
Follow Fax
Similarly, the first draft included another 6pt bet on HALIFAX to finish in the top half at 8/11, but there’s now no better than 4/7 available and that’s one I can’t justify adding to the tipping record at such a short price; nevertheless, the 5/2 about the Shaymen FINISHING IN THE TOP SEVEN again remains and I’m happy to keep that bet on side.
Full disclosure; I am a Halifax fan, but as a result of this, I'm a natural pessimist, and I’d have unwisely put people off the same bet landing for both of the past two seasons given the club’s meagre resources and high player turnover.
The Shaymen were constant overachievers during the tenure of the previous management team, headed initially by Pete Wild and then by his former assistant Chris Millington. Four play-off finishes and an FA Trophy victory across a six-year spell was a fantastic return given the club’s bottom-half budget, and alarm bells were certainly ringing after Millington walked away from the club weeks after his injury-ravaged team were thrashed in the play-off eliminator by Oldham.
He's been replaced by former King’s Lynn and Curzon Ashton boss Adam Lakeland, who boasts a good track record at working alongside financial restraints in the National League North.
Halifax are no strangers to a summer rebuild, their lack of financial clout meaning they find their better players cherry-picked by Football League clubs season after season, with Adam Senior and Jack Evans the most notable to do so in this window.
Nevertheless, Lakeland seems to have continued his predecessor’s modus operandi of picking up promising younger players that already hold plenty of senior football experience; Cody Johnson and Josh Hmami have followed their gaffer to The Shay on the back of stellar seasons in the National League North, whilst ex-Burnley man Will Hugill adds further depth to midfield, having impressed on loan in a poor Fylde side last year.
Goals remain a concern for The Shaymen – only bottom club Ebbsfleet scored fewer last season - and they’ll be relying on sixth-tier signings Will Harris and David Kawa to make a successful impression at this higher level, but solid defensive foundations look assured again with Shaun Hobson, promoted with Oldham last season, adding an experienced head to a typically youthful squad.
What could’ve been a tumultuous transition period has gone smoother than most would’ve anticipated and I’m not particularly sure there are too many sides that look obvious candidates to leapfrog Halifax for a place in the top seven; relegated Morecambe are in a desperate situation and may not even be allowed to compete, Gateshead have arguably lost more key men than any other side in the division, Tamworth exceeded expectations in their first year back in the fifth tier but have lost star man Dan Creaney to Solihull, who themselves finished last season in dreadful form and remain with an unproven manager in Matt Taylor.
Altrincham and Scunthorpe would both be disappointed to finish outside of the top half, though I'm not sure they possess the depth beyond their first XIs to attain a play-off finish.
I could end up with egg on my face tipping up my own team in this column for the first time, especially one run like Phoenix Nights FC behind the scenes (the season starts in 48 hours and there’s still no sign of a kit), but Halifax keep defying the odds and getting things right on the pitch; I’m far from convinced the regression the market anticipates will be forthcoming, so I’m happy to take 5/2 about a third consecutive top seven finish.
Two more for top seven
A couple of teams I haven’t mentioned are HARTLEPOOL and EASTLEIGH, and I think both are value TO FINISH IN THE TOP SEVEN this time around.
Now, the variance of where Hartlepool could finish in this league is perhaps highest of all clubs this year. They’ll have Simon Grayson at the helm, a manager with vast EFL experience who returns to England after winning the Nepalese Super League last season.
I wouldn’t take that as an outright positive, whilst the continued presence of Raj Singh in the boardroom means stability should never be taken for granted at Victoria Park, but Pools have undoubtedly recruited really well this summer.
Bes Tapallaj, Cam John, Alex Reid and Jay Benn provide plenty of top-end National League experience. Jermaine Francis did well on loan at Braintree from Barnet last year, Matty Daly returns to the club after several season in the EFL with Bradford and Harrogate, whilst Maxim Kouogun turned down a new deal at Scunthorpe to move to the North East.
I’d be lying if I said I couldn’t envisage a world where things go badly pear-shaped under Grayson, but if things do click at Victoria Park, they’ve got the personnel to mount a serious play-off push and I can’t leave a squad with that level of talent unbacked at 5/2.
And Eastleigh are the other side that catch my eye with a view to breaking into the top seven. One playoff finish in the last ten years has been an underwhelming return for a club that regularly boasts a competitive budget, but I think The Spitfires should be in the picture this season.
Last season’s top scorer, Tyrese Shade, has moved on to Burton Albion, but Kelvin Davis has quietly assembled a tidy squad for the upcoming season.
Kieron Evans, who had a productive loan spell at this level with Gateshead two seasons ago, joins after his release from Cardiff, whilst there’ll be plenty of additional EFL experience at the Silverlake Stadium this year through the likes of goalkeeper Nick Townsend - arguably the key factor behind Newport retaining their League Two status last season - and former Shrewsbury centre half Aaron Pierre. Josh Lundstram was also a regular in promoted Oldham’s midfield last season and adds to a proven core alongside the likes of Jake Taylor and Niall Maher.
McCallum to fire for Eastleigh
Striker Aaron Blair is well worth the step back up to National League level having scored 34 goals across his last two seasons in the National League South for Braintree and Maidstone. He’ll partner PAUL MCCALLUM up front, who I think is worth a play small each-way play to be the divisions TOP SCORER.
Regan Linney and Ollie Pearce - the latter a 16/1 winning selection in this column last season – take up a fair chunk of this market and rightfully so given they were the 1-2 in 24/25 and will be leading the line for the two title favourites.
McCallum had a quiet season last year, nine National League goals below-par for a striker who can usually be relied upon to hit double figures as a bare minimum, especially given he began the campaign in top form; he found the net only twice after September.
Nevertheless, 33/1 strikes me as too big given his overall record in the league – it’s only two seasons ago that he won the Golden Boot, scoring 31 goals from 38 appearances. He was an 8/1 shot for the same bet last year and if anything, will be playing in a stronger Eastleigh side whose direct style has long played to his strengths.
Ride with Rochdale forward
I’d also be interesting in backing Rochdale’s new signing MANI DIESERUVWE TO BE TOP SCORER too.
The experienced striker has notched 59 goals in 146 National League games across his spells at Grimsby, Halifax and Hartlepool and for the first time since achieving promotion with the Mariners, will be playing for a team that have realistic aspirations to get out of the division.
The 6ft 4in Dieseruvwe has always been a player whose best work comes in the box, a real aerial threat that possesses a natural poacher’s instinct.
He’s the same price as his strike partner Devante Rodney, another player I rate highly, but Rodney is a quick, in-behind the defence type of forward and he’s equally capable of playing out wide, whilst Dieseruvwe is guaranteed to be playing down the middle, so I’d be keener to back the big man despite his price of 12/1 being another that has frustrating contracted slightly whilst writing.
And whilst we’re on ROCHDALE, I think the Spotland side are worth a swing TO FINISH IN THE TOP THREE at 9/4.
Jimmy McNulty’s men finished fourth last season and have added further talent alongside Dieseruvwe to their squad, including Anthony Mancini, who looked a cut above his teammates at Hartlepool when fit, and Joe Pritchard, another promotion winner with Oldham.
Perhaps most importantly, they have stability and continuity within their playing squad and backroom staff, something I’d have to take on trust regarding the likes of Carlisle and Forest Green Rovers, now with Robbie Savage at the helm, his success at Macclesfield having come with a gargantuan budget.
Shrimpers on the up
The same logic applies backing beaten play-off finalists SOUTHEND in the same TOP THREE FINISH market at 7/2; the Shrimpers are a huge club and are clearly back on an upward trajectory after years of turmoil.
They’ve not been particularly busy in the transfer market this season – highly-rated former Slough striker Slavi Spasov perhaps the most interesting addition – but Macauley Bonne is the only first-time regular to have departed from last year’s squad, the majority of whom are aged between 25-30 and should be entering their peak seasons as footballers.
I like Kevin Maher as a manager and he clearly trusts his group to build on their encouraging seventh-placed finish last season. I think they are also a shade overpriced.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (8/8/25)
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