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Football betting tips: Weekend best bets
Saturday
2.5pts Barrow +0.25 Asian handicap vs Walsall (15:00) at 31/40 (bet365)
Sunday
2.5pts Ajax to win to nil vs Willem II (15:45) at 5/4 (William Hill)
3pts Both teams to score in Como vs Torino (17:00) at 19/20 (bet365)
Barrow vs Walsall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 19/10 | Draw 2/1 | Away 13/10
Walsall surrendered top spot in League Two last week for the first time since MD19. The Saddlers dropped to third as their lean streak extended with a home reverse against fellow high-flyers Port Vale – Mat Sadler’s side have now tabled only two triumphs in 16 since mid-January and head to Barrow with a solitary success in eight away since New Year’s Day.
On paper, it may look like Barrow have little left to play for yet the Bluebirds are finishing with a flourish, rejuvenated under Andy Whing’s tutorship. The Cumbrians are W4-D3-L1 across their last eight encounters and ranked as high as sixth on Expected Points (xP) during that sample, picking up impressive results against plenty of high-calibre opponents.
We can back Barrow with a +0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP start here at 31/40 and make money should the hosts avoid defeat. The two clubs are neck-and-neck in both the 12 and 16-game ratings tables yet Walsall are still being priced up as if they’re dominating the division, which hasn’t now been the case for over three months. They’re easily opposed.
Willem II vs Ajax
- Kick-off time: 15:45 BST, Sunday
- Home 13/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 1/3
AJAX are sauntering towards a remarkable Eredivisie title. The Amsterdam giants have enjoyed a remarkable turnaround under Francesco Farioli’s watch this season, including doing the double over their two title rivals PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord. It’s not always been pretty, but de Godenzonen have proven mightily efficient and effective.
With the finishing line in sight, Ajax have registered 12 wins in their most recent 13 league fixtures and conceding only five goals along the way – only PSV managed an Expected Goals (xG) tally better than 1.00, whilst 10 of those 13 opponents generated a maximum of one 'big chance' (xG greater then 0.35) when facing the runaway league leaders.
On their travels this term, they’ve tabled 10 triumphs in 13 and managed eight shutouts, with Ajax posting eight victories in nine against teams in eighth and below, six of which came TO NIL. Third-bottom Willem II are W0-D2-L9 since Christmas and have already lost without scoring in three of five when welcoming top-six teams.
Como vs Torino
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 12/5 | Away 29/10
Serie A is averaging 2.60 goals per-game this season with 53% of fixtures seeing both sides score – turn that hit-rate into implied odds and we’d see blanket BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE odds around the 9/10 (1.89) mark. We’re being offered 19/20 (1.95) when two of the league’s chief BTTS protagonists lock horns on Sunday evening as Como face Torino.
Como have established themselves impressively in the top-flight since promotion. The newcomers have been decent going forward, scoring in 16 of their last 18 outings – only failing to do so at Bologna and Inter. Cesc Fabregas’ group have also notched in 14 of 15 showdowns at their Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia base, highlighting their final-third threat.
However, the Lariani have managed just three clean sheets across the campaign, leading to 13 BTTS winners in those 15 home fixtures. With Torino in town, I’m eager to back a repeat – the Granata have gotten on the scoresheet in 13 of their previous 14, netting in 13 of 16 away days – exclude the bottom-three and 10 of their 13 road trips banked for BTTS backers.
Odds correct at 0925 GMT (10/04/25)
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