Renowned football tipster Mark O'Haire returns with his nap, next best bet and longshot for this weekend's action.
Football betting tips: Premier League, La Liga
3pts Chelsea to beat Aston Villa and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 10/11 (Nap) (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Atlético Madrid to beat Espanyol at Evens (Betfair Exchange)
0.5pt Crystal Palace to win by exactly one goal at 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Chelsea v Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Chelsea 2/7 | Draw 17/4 | Aston Villa 10/1
Chelsea have passed both the eye test and data analysis during Thomas Tuchel’s reign. The Blues have posted W21-D7-L5 since the German was appointed at the end of January, with the Londoners accumulating 21 clean sheets during that same sample. During Premier League action, the European champions have tabled W13-D6-L3, with 13 shutouts from 21.
However, most eye-catching is the consistency with which the Blues have paid out in the Under 3.5 Goals market – just two of their overall 33 fixtures under Tuchel have featured four or more goals, with 20 of their 21 triumphs arriving alongside Under 3.5 Goals (either 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1).
The top four correct score favourites ahead of Saturday evening’s showdown with Aston Villa come under the UNDER 3.5 GOALS bracket, and adding that goals angle alongside the CHELSEA WIN sees the price of a wager on the Blues increase from 2/7 to 10/11. That’s an appetising way of keeping Tuchel’s troops onside.
Aston Villa will be without Emi Buendia and Emi Martinez, but the Villans biggest issue has been replacing the final-third influence of departed skipper Jack Grealish. Dean Smith's side have failed to fire in the final-third during encounters with Watford, Newcastle and Brentford thus far, and a trip to Stamford Bridge is an obvious step up in class for the guests.
Grealish accounted for 31% of overall xG generated by Aston Villa last season (xA plus xG), and with him in the side, the visitors averaged 1.80 points. But Dean Smith’s side saw their performances drop significantly without the England ace, posting just 0.94 points-per-game when he was absent. Early signs suggest they’ll take time to find their feet without him.
Espanyol v Atlético Madrid
- Kick-off time: 13:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: LaLigaTV
- Espanyol 10/3 | Draw 9/4 | Atlético Madrid 10/11
Atlético Madrid went off as odds-on favourites in 13 of their 19 away La Liga games last season, so Los Colchoneros immediately appear a little too big at even-money when they travel to Barcelona on Sunday afternoon. Diego Simeone’s side are wonderfully consistent against the lesser lights, and they appeal at the prices.
Atléti were victorious in nine of those 13 away dates when chalked up below evens, and have posted a super strong W31-D16-L4 in their past 51 trips to bottom-half teams in La Liga. That’s a 61% win rate, which would imply odds around the 4/6 mark on the straight away success – highlighting the value in supporting the Madrid men.
Newly-promoted Espanyol concluded their solitary Segunda campaign as champions, and are expected to consolidate back in the Spanish top-flight under the astute leadership of Vicente Moreno. But a tricky start has seen Los Periquitos goalless after three fixtures against Osasuna (0-0), Villarreal (0-0) and Mallorca (0-1).
The Barcelona-based outfit are yet to fashion a 'big chance' this term, and are averaging only five attempts from inside the penalty box per-game. That’s concerning when facing the division’s strongest suit from a defensive standpoint.
With that in mind, I’m happy to take ATLETICO MADRID TO WIN, with Antonine Griezmann bolstering Los Colchoneros’ squad after enjoying a fine international break with France.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: BT Sport 1
- Crystal Palace 16/5 | Draw 12/5 | Tottenham 10/11
I’m not a fan of Crystal Palace’s appointment of Patrick Vieira and, for that reason, I’m anticipating a tough campaign for the Eagles. The Frenchman inherits an unenviable task of overseeing a major rebuild at Selhurst Park, although the Croydon club have impressed in their transfer market dealings following a major list of outgoing personnel.
Having produced two unremarkable efforts, Palace impressed against West Ham before the international break. A threat from set-pieces, the Eagles also displayed a penchant for open play menace, and the arrival of Odsonne Eduard should give the hosts an edge to their attacking game going forward.
Tottenham are top of the tree through three rounds as Nuno Espirito Santo has immediately imprinted his pragmatic and counter-attacking style on the side. Nevertheless, Spurs rode their luck against Man City, as well as Wolves, and the conditions could be right to oppose the North Londoners this weekend.
The Eric Dier and Davinson Sanchez centre-back partnership will be broken up with the latter quarantining along with Cristiano Romero and Giovani Lo Celso, while Oliver Skipp is considered doubtful. Heung-Min Son appears unlikely to be fit and Harry Kane was away with England late into Wednesday night ahead of this early Saturday kick-off.
Considering the circumstances, Spurs look the most likely favourite to fall in the Premier League this weekend, and backing CRYSTAL PALACE TO WIN BY EXACTLY ONE GOAL at 5/1 stands out. The goal expectancy is set at 2.50 and I’m not expecting a thrilling end-to-end encounter; in a tight tussle, I’m happy to side with the underdog scraping a narrow success.
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