Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Ruben Dias 2+ total shots at 11/2 (BetVictor) - min price 15/8
1pt Bernardo Silva to be carded at 22/5 (BetVictor) - min price 2/1
1pt Federico Valverde to score or assist at 7/2 (bet365) - min price 5/2
Agg: Man City 0-3 Real Madrid
Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Live odds, form and stats
Heading into the first leg last week not many gave Real Madrid a chance of qualifying past Manchester City, with Los Blancos blowing hot and cold and Manchester City finding some rhythm. So naturally Madrid hammered City 3-0 at the Bernabeu.
The scoreline was fair too, with City unable to deal with Madrid's pace and physicality and unable to break down a well-organised mid-block, not helped by some more Pep-roulette.
Changes made by the great coach ultimately weakened his side and played into the hands of Real, notably in shifting Nico O'Reilly from midfield to left-back, weakening the middle of the park while also playing a player out of position. It could be argued he went too attacking as well in playing four forwards.
City have it all to do here, but you can bet they will give it a good go, even if they are possibly low on confidence after letting another of the Premier League's relegation scrappers take points off them at the weekend.
They are now nine points off the pace in the title, on the brink of elimination from Europe, have a Carabao Cup final days after this clash and must go to Anfield in the FA Cup after the international break. All of a sudden, another trophy less season looks likely.
Onto the second leg then, and City are 4/1 to qualify. Yes, 4/1. That is extremely short isn't it.
Pep's side will throw the kitchen sink early in this one though, knowing that they realistically need a breakthrough in the first half to give them any hope of overturning such a deficit, and that means we should expect them to dominate territory from the off, which should lead to plenty of corners and set-pieces.
That makes the 11/2 about RUBEN DIAS 2+ TOTAL SHOTS simply massive in my mind. I would back this bet down to 15/8.
The Portuguese defender isn't the most prolific shooter but did fire off one shot in the first leg as City tried to get a goal late on, and he also loves a shot from distance, which is increasingly likely given Madrid are expected to sit deep.
It looks like the perfect recipe for this bet to land at a big price, and it has previous in similar games this season too. He fired two shots when Napoli went to the Etihad, with Antonio Conte's side sitting deep and down to 10-men, it landed on international duty as Portugal played a Republic of Ireland side camped inside their own six-yard-box, while recently he won against both Aston Villa - who took an early lead - and Sunderland - who sit in a deep block - as well.
We'll also back BERNARDO SILVA TO BE CARDED at 22/5. Given City will be playing on the front-foot, we should again expect Silva to be playing in a deeper midfield role alongside Rodri, and that puts him in the firing line for cynical fouls.
We saw an example of this at the weekend against West Ham, where he collected his 13th card across all competitions this season. He's averaging 0.40 cards per 90, so the price on offer here is massive, with referee Clement Turpin happy to dish cards if needed (3.75 per game).
Finally we'll also back last week's hat-trick hero FEDERICO VALVERDE TO SCORE OR ASSIST at a huge 7/2. His expertly taken treble was no flash in the pan for the Uruguayan, who has in fact scored six and assisted three times in his last eight matches for Madrid.
The score or assist bet has landed in six of those eight, and he will be used as a major outlet for Real given his pace and endless energy, and I do expect the visitors to get on the scoresheet given just how much quality they have in transition.
Valverde will again have a favourable match-up down Madrid's right and can again be a handful for City, helping his side close out the tie at the Etihad.
Odds correct at 14:20 GMT (16/03/26)
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