Saturday's early kick-off in the Premier League sees Manchester City take on Wolves and Tom Carnduff is backing a goalscorer at a big price.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt e.w. Joao Cancelo to score first at 28/1 (bet365 1/3 1-98 places)
A much-changed Manchester City side were beaten by RB Leipzig in midweek but it was a game they simply didn't have to win. The focus now returns to Premier League action with the visit of Wolves on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola's men capitalised on Chelsea's defeat at West Ham by going top of the Premier League on Saturday and the schedule means they can continue to apply pressure to their rivals with a win.
They're a tiny 1/8 to do so which means there is little appeal in any option in the outright market. Wolves have underperformed their expected goals for (xGF) figure with 12 goals coming from 20.2 - while their 13 goals against should have been more with 18.9 xGA on their tally.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Manchester City 1/8 | Draw 7/1 | Wolves 20/1
The way this result is expected to go is outlined in the odds-on price available for Manchester City to score three or more goals. It's difficult to argue with that - it's something we've seen them do on multiple occasions this season.
Wolves have seen a number of low-scoring games this season with just the one goal scored across their last three - that being Liverpool's late winner - but the fact the Reds posted 2.65 xG to Wolves' 0.13 shows how the scoreline should have been bigger.
Norwich had 1.43 xG in their 0-0 draw with Wanderers so the underlying numbers highlight how Wolves are slightly lucky not to have seen their goals against column increase by more in recent weeks.
In the goalscorer market, with a number of options at short prices, I'm sticking with a player I firmly believe will strike at some point and that's backing JOAO CANCELO TO SCORE FIRST as an each-way selection.
A best price of 28/1 means we're getting above 9/1 on a goal anytime and those odds should not be that big considering his attacking showings so far. In 15 Premier League appearances, Cancelo has had a huge 33 shots.
He's not performing like the standard full-back and his 1.95 xG figure highlights that a goal should have come in the league by now. He's scored twice in the Champions League - it's not as if he's failed to find the back of the net completely.
Cancelo netted a couple last season and if he continues to perform at the levels he is then one will arrive soon enough. He has, after all, posted at least two shots in seven of his last eight league outings - that includes the huge total of five in the home defeat by Crystal Palace.
No Manchester City player has seen more shots than Cancelo in the league this season yet this price looks like one led by his actual goals return. It's a real value play in a game where the outright market offers little.
Manchester City v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- 1pt e.w. Joao Cancelo to score first at 28/1 (bet365 1/3 1-98)
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1115 GMT (09/12/21)
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