Liam Kelly previews Manchester City's hosting of Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, picking out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Over 8.5 Manchester City fouls conceded at 17/20 (Unibet)
1pt Manchester City 4+ 1st Half Shots On Target at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
It seems Manchester City will run through their group with some authority if matchday one is anything to go by.
Pep Guardiola's side beat Sevilla away from home with consummate ease, completely dominating the Spanish side by any and all metrics (xG: SEV 0.31 - 4.03 MCI).
Back at the Etihad Stadium, they should dispatch of a Borussia Dortmund side that have run hot and cold in the early parts of the campaign, hence the very short price.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Manchester City 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Borussia Dortmund 14/1
Dortmund are in a good position following their own 3-0 over FC København last week, but followed that up with a wholly uninspiring defeat to RB Leipzig on Saturday.
It's highly likely the visitors won't be able to get near City in terms of possession of the ball, let alone the result, which brings us to the selection.
Having the ball for long periods does not exactly translate to fewer fouls conceded. In fact, the opposite occurs often, so it's a surprise to see a low City's fouls conceded line set below the total of their opponents.
With that in mind, OVER 8.5 MANCHESTER CITY FOULS CONCEDED looks a small play at 17/20 with Unibet.
Dortmund will surely be happy to sit back and welcome pressure from the off, and with any scrap of possession won, City are experts at shutting down teams with sacrificial fouls.
The away side will no doubt be looking for some fouls won, and with it, some respite from the relentless nature of the hosts. Additionally, there's also a chance the game becomes scrappy if Dortmund stay in the fixture for as long as possible, making the backing of nine City fouls in 90 minutes appealing.
Another price of note is the 10/11 available at Sky Bet about MANCHESTER CITY 4+ FIRST HALF SHOTS ON TARGET.
A fast start can be expected of a well-rested City side champing at the bit to dominate this competition, likely to test Dortmund goalkeeper Alexander Meyer throughout the night.
City have breached that total three times in the opening 45 minutes of six Premier League already this season, and, with better finishing, should have had more than two from the nine first half shots against Sevilla last week.
They should be much sharper from the first whistle on Wednesday.
Manchester City v Borussia Dortmund score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Over 8.5 Manchester City fouls conceded at 17/20 (Unibet)
- 1pt Manchester City 4+ 1st Half Shots On Target at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Borussia Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1610 BST (13/09/22)
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