Man City aren't a side to necessarily oppose if they get a man sent off

Which Premier League teams cope best after having a man sent off and who struggles most?

Football

Sun October 08, 2017 · 8y ago

Red cards obviously have an important impact on the outcome of football matches - not to mention your bets and accumulators - but the latest statistical research highlights just how some Premier League teams cope a lot better than others.

So your team gets a man sent off and chances of victory go out of the window, right? And if it happens to one of the sides in your weekend accumulators - especially in the first half or when they're behind - you feel like 'ripping up' your betting slip there and then.

Obviously it's pretty rare that the paper variety will need to be frantically sellotaped back together in that scenario but the latest statistical research shows you should keep faith with certain clubs a lot more than others when they're reduced to 10 men and potentially even back them in-play at bigger odds.

The following stats from Bet-BonusCode.co.uk, which also include each club's red card tallies over the past five seasons and which teams have played against - and beaten - 10 men the most, can also be useful when betting on Sky Bet's cards markets in Premier League games and related RequestABet specials.

Key overall findings

Data collected from the five seasons from 2012/13 to 2016/17

Manchester City are Premier League's "10-man specialists" with 70%-win rate
Arsenal have played more minutes with 10 men than any other side
Manchester United have failed to score while a man light in the last five years
More red cards given to teams facing West Ham than any other club
Chelsea and Spurs have best records against 10 men

Best winning records when down to 10 men

Qualifying criteria 5 games from 2012/13 to 2016/17

Man City - 70%-win rate across 10 games
Arsenal - 44%, 18 games
Everton - 38%, 13 games
Liverpool - 33%, 9 games
QPR - 33%, 6 games

Manchester City's impressive 70%-win rate ranks them as the most successful Premier League club in the last five seasons after a sending off - unless you take into account Middlesbrough, who won the only match in which they were reduced to 10 men.

The findings also revealed that Sky Bet's 4/6 Premier League title favourites have the best scoring record when a man down. In nine of the 10 games which saw a City player receive a red card, they still scored another goal after their numbers were reduced. This included the 2-0 win over Hull back in the 2013/14 season when both were bagged after Vincent Kompany's 10th-minute red.

This season Man City have won a further game in which they were reduced to 10 men - although Raheem Sterling's red came after celebrating a stoppage-time winning goal in a 2-1 victory at Bournemouth (!) - while they managed to find the net following Kyle Walker's first-half dismissal against Everton, who received a late red themselves, to salvage a 1-1 draw.

By contrast, the research found that this season's current 11/4 second favourites Manchester United have a poor record after seeing red. They have even failed to score following 12 sending offs over the last five seasons, with Watford also unable to find the net when they were a man light during eight games.

This trend does extend to this season for the Hornets, were drew 0-0 with Brighton after Miguel Britos was sent off for a horror tackle in the 24th minute.

Interestingly, Arsenal had to play the greatest amount of time without a full 11, facing 615 minutes of Premier League football while a man down. This equates to almost seven whole matches over the five-year period, or 1.4 games per season, and makes their 44%-win rate even more impressive.

Worst winning records when down to 10 men

Qualifying criteria 4 games from 2012/13 to 2016/17

Stoke - 0%-win rate from 16 games
Swansea - 0%, 11 games
Burnley - 0%, 4 games
Bournemouth - 0%, 4 games
West Brom - 10%, 10 games

Winning records when facing 10 men

West Ham were the most sinned-against team during this time frame, with opponents receiving 22 red cards in the last five years, while Chelsea followed closely behind on 21.

Fans of the Blues and local rivals Tottenham can feel pretty confident when the opposition loses a player, with both sides going on to win 86% of games, more than any other Premier League side in the last five years.

Chelsea have also only lost on 5% of occasions where they have a man advantage, with Spurs on 7%.

Burnley supporters though should not get their hopes up when they see the opposing team go down to 10 as the Clarets have failed to win in each of these five games, losing 60% of the time. They also concede the most to 10 men at an average of 0.6 goals per game.

However, their famous 3-2 victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge earlier this season was undoubtedly helped by Gary Cahill's sending off before any of the goals were scored. The Clarets did concede once after going 3-0 up and then a further goal after Blues had gone down to nine men following Cesc Fabregas' red card!

Swansea City were the most impressive defensive record against a weakened side. They faced the most games without conceding a goal to a 10-man team (10 matches).

Julian Beck of Bet-BonusCode.co.uk said: "There is also the old commentator cliché that facing a 10-man side can be more difficult, but fans of Chelsea, Tottenham and Swansea would certainly beg to differ having witnessed their sides take full advantage of having an extra player.

"Overall, we have found that teams with 10 men go on to lose 59% of matches, winning just one in five, so perhaps City are actually the exception rather than the rule."

Overall red card win-rate table