Check out our match pack for the second leg of the Champions League semi-final between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid on Wednesday night.
The game kicks off at 1945 BST at the Vicente Calderon Stadium, live on BT Sport 2. Real Madrid lead 3-0 after the first leg.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid: Our prediction
By Andy Schooler
Sometimes you can talk yourself out of an obvious bet but I won’t be making that mistake ahead of the latest Madrid derby.
This will be these sides’ 20th meeting in the last four seasons but Atletico will not have gone into many of them with such a concerned mindset.
Having taking a firm hammering in last week’s first leg at the Bernabeu they face what appears to be an impossible task in turning this one around – no side has ever overcome a two-goal deficit in a Champions League semi, let alone a three-goal one.
In a season which has seen Barcelona overturn a four-goal deficit to qualify from a two-legged tie, perhaps I should be careful about what I say.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but what we did know about Barca v PSG was that the home side had a feared strikeforce and there were people who said if any side were capable of the comeback, it was Barca.
The opposite is true here.
Atletico’s strength is, supposedly, their defence but that let them down last week and it’s hard to make the case for them having the tools to dig themselves out of such a deep hole.
While I am loath to knock Antoine Griezmann, he’s not Lionel Messi and last week didn’t even look like Antoine Griezmann as Real snuffed out Atletico’s goal threat almost entirely.
Even if you do feel a Griezmann/Atletico fairytale could unfold in what is the Vicente Calderon’s final European game, there’s a problem at the other end given the fact that Real have now scored in 60 consecutive matches.
Extend that run here and Atletico will need not three to stand any chance but five.
Real’s defence is far from watertight but it did a fine job in the first leg and based on what I witnessed last week I simply can’t see where the hope is for Atletico.
Real were dominant and utterly outclassed their rivals, who now have to ditch their defensive mindset and come out (at least at some point, and not too late).
Real, who have already won at Napoli and Bayern Munich in the knockout stages, can be deadly on the break and it’s not difficult to see them picking off Atleti in ruthless fashion again.
I am reminded of the 2013 semi-final which saw Bayern head into the second leg against Barcelona with a 4-0 lead, one they duly increased to 7-0 by the end of the tie.
You don’t get Real at 17/10 to win a football match very often and the way things are set up here, that deserves to be snapped up.
Looking into things a little deeper, there’s another odds-against shot I like the look of in the cards markets.
Atletico can be backed at 29/20 (William Hill) to pick up four or more cards in the contest and that looks a tad big.
History certainly suggests so as 13 of those 19 matches over the past four seasons I’ve referred to have seen them receive that many.
They include the 2013/14 final against Real when things got ratty and they received seven yellows (boss Diego Simeone also got sent off), while the 2014/15 semi-final second leg at the Bernabeu also came in.
This is another big game but one in which Atletico are behind the eight ball.
Simeone has never gone down without a fight, either or a player or a manager, and his side reflect his persona. They are masters of the ‘dark arts’ and there appeared to be a clear tactic to unsettle Real with some roughhouse stuff last week, although admittedly they only ended up picking up three cards in that game.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Atletico losing their rag a bit should it quickly become clear that Real are indeed heading to Cardiff and in what will still be a fervent derby atmosphere, not to mention an historic occasion, there seems every chance that four cards are shown to the men in red, white and blue.
Throw in the fact that Turkish ref Cuneyt Cakir is averaging 4.34 cards per game this season (4.5 in the Champions League) and the case is made.
The bet is odds-on in places. Take the 29/20 while you can.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 0-2 Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid: Press Association preview
Real Madrid head coach Zinedine Zidane insists his players have no intention of sitting back on their 3-0 lead over city rivals Atletico at Vicente Calderon when they look to secure a place in the Champions League final.
A hat-trick from Cristiano Ronaldo at the Santiago Bernabeu last week means the holders are very much on course for Cardiff next month, barring one of the most unlikely comebacks.
Nevertheless, Zidane maintains Los Blancos have to head into the tie with the same mindset which saw them dispose of Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals and keep the pressure on at the top of LaLiga with a 4-0 win at relegated Granada which leaves the destiny of the domestic championship still in their own hands.
"Our idea doesn't change and our way of playing is always to give our best. The message to the players is to continue on the path that we are on and give everything out on the field. We are not going to change the way we play," Zidane said at Real Madrid's pre-match press conference.
"We will try to go in to the game as we have been doing so far. You have to go out on to the field, try to play and do your best to win the game."
No side has ever recovered from a two-goal deficit in the semi-finals, while it is sure to be an emotionally-charged atmosphere in what will be the last European tie at Atletico's intimidating home before the club moves to the state-of-the-art Wanda Metropolitano.
Zidane, though, will not let any talk of a Vicente Calderon swansong or the prospect of a shock result cloud the thinking of his team, who have so far scored in 60 consecutive games.
"I only focus on what we have tomorrow. Things from the outside don't interest me. The players and I are only thinking about the game," he said.
"Atletico will have their weapons and we have to try to continue on our path, which has got us to where we are. We have to give our all from the first minute, we are clear about that."
Zidane added: "The injustice would be to not do our best to get to where we are. After nine months, the players work every day with incredible professionalism, but you have to show it every three days in the games.
"We are fortunate enough to be able to show that we are doing well and tomorrow we must continue to do so. We are giving everything we have inside us."
Defenders Pepe and Raphael Varane have both returned to training, but it remains to be seen whether they will feature at Vicente Calderon, where Zidane is expected to recall his key men having made sweeping changes against Granada.
Atletico coach Diego Simeone will be looking for a repeat of the 4-0 home LaLiga win in February 2015 as Los Colchoneros aim to produce the most unlikely of turnaround against their bitter rivals, who came out on top in last season's Champions League final as well as the 2014 triumph in Lisbon.
Midfielder Saul Niguez believes patience will be key, both on the field and in the stands.
"It is a game where we have to give everything for the fans so that they can always be proud of their players," he said, quoted in Marca.
"The first objective is not to go crazy, it is a very complicated game and is going to be difficult, so we have to go step by step, scoring a goal in the first half would give us a lot of strength and our fans can make [Real] very nervous."
Simeone sees no reason to believe his squad cannot pull off an unlikely result.
"We trust what we can do, I trust a lot in my players," the Atletico coach said at a press conference.
"I have known them for the last five-and-a-half years and I have no doubt that tomorrow they will make a great game.
"We know what we're capable of. I have full confidence in my players and I am sure we'll do things well.
"We believe in ourselves and our weapons. We won't change for this game."
"We will try to do something that's going to be very difficult, but we won't give up until the referee blows the final whistle."
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid: Opta facts
No team has ever overturned a 3-0 first-leg away defeat in the Champions League knockout stages in five previous attempts, although Barcelona managed the biggest ever comeback in this season’s round of 16 by eliminating Paris SG 6-5 on aggregate after a 4-0 first leg defeat.
Atletico Madrid only had one shot on target in the first leg, their lowest tally in a Champions League game under Diego Simeone.
This is the fourth season in succession that these city rivals face off in the Champions League knockout phase; Atletico are yet to claim victory during this recent run (D2 L3).
The only previous European Cup/Champions League semi-final between the two clubs saw Real Madrid progress through to the final after three legs against their city rivals during the 1958/59 campaign; they went on to lift the trophy.
Atletico Madrid have reached the semi-finals of the Champions League for the third time in four seasons. They had never reached that stage previously (since 1992/93).
Meanwhile, Real Madrid have reached the Champions League semis for the 7th consecutive season, a record in the history of the tournament.
Atletico Madrid have won 17 of their 22 Champions League home games under Diego Simeone (D4 L1), their only defeat coming against Benfica in September 2015 (1-2). They are unbeaten at the Calderón in the knockout stages (W6 D4).
However, they’ve scored more than two goals on only one occasion in 10 knockout games at the Calderón under Simeone. It came in March 2014 against AC Milan (4-1).
Atletico Madrid have also kept a clean sheet in 16 of their last 18 Champions League games at the Calderón.
Real Madrid have won their last five Champions League games, their longest ever run of victories in the knockout stages of the competition. A sixth win in a row would establish a new record for the latter stages of the Champions League.
Real Madrid, alongside Juventus, are the only unbeaten team in this season’s Champions League (W8 D3). They have also only lost one of their last 13 knockout games (W9 D3), it was against Wolfsburg in April 2016 (0-2).
Real Madrid have scored at least two goals in each of their 11 Champions League games this season. The first leg was also the only time they’ve kept a clean sheet in this season’s competition.
Atletico Madrid are the lowest scoring team in this season’s Champions League amongst the four semi-finalists (13 goals in 11 games).
13 of Real Madrid’s last 14 Champions League goals have been scored from the 47th minute onwards.
Cristiano Ronaldo has now scored 103 goals in the Champions League, three more than Atletico Madrid. He’s netted 0.79 goals per game in the knockout stages (52 in 66 games), a better rate than in the group stages (0.71).
Ronaldo has scored eight of Real Madrid’s last nine goals in the Champions League – the other coming from Marco Asensio. He’s also reached the 10-goal mark for the sixth consecutive Champions League campaign – no other player has done it on more than two consecutive seasons (Messi, Van Nistelrooy).
Antoine Griezmann has scored or assisted 50% of Atlético Madrid’s goals in the Champions League since last season (12 goals and 3 assists). However, he didn’t shoot or make a single touch inside Real Madrid’s box in the first leg.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid: Sky Bet odds
Atletico Madrid will have to defy Sky Bet’s odds of 14/1 to book their place in the Champions League final, despite being favourites on the night at 6/4. Zinedine Zidane’s men are 8/5 to heap further misery on their neighbours by beating them again, while they are now marginally odds-on at 10/11 to become the first side to retain the trophy in the competition’s modern format. Cristiano Ronaldo heads the first goalscorer betting at 7/2 and is 12/1 for another hat-trick, while Antoine Griezmann leads the hosts’ side of the market at 4/1.