Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Victor Lindelof to commit 1+ fouls at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Kobbie Mainoo to be shown a card at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Victor Lindelof to commit 2+ fouls at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Luton’s survival hopes suffered a setback last weekend as they were defeated 3-1 by basement boys Sheffield United.
The Hatters start the weekend two points clear of the relegation zone. Having only lost two of their last seven games they will have ambitions of extending that margin on Sunday as Everton, the side below them, are not in action until Monday.
Rob Edwards' side have proved a tough nut to crack at home. The defeat last weekend was the first time they have lost by more than a one goal margin at Kenilworth Road.
This clash will be another test of their resolve as they host a Manchester United side in a rich vein of form.
The Red Devils are hot in pursuit of the top five. Unbeaten in their last six, they have taken maximum points from their last three games against Aston Villa, West Ham and Wolves.
What are the best bets?
As far as player card bets go, this one ticks all the boxes. A great price, a card happy referee and a player with a poor disciplinary record.
KOBBIE MAINOO is 7/1 TO BE SHOWN A CARD, the same bet is as short as 2/1 with other firms.
Mainoo has been carded twice in ten league appearances, one of which coming in his last outing with both away from home.
The all-action midfielder is not afraid to get stuck in, completing a total of 19 tackles and eight fouls.
At Kenilworth Road, at least one opposition central midfielder has been carded in seven of Luton’s 12 league games.
David Coote is the man with the whistle, a referee who has dished out 48 yellows and three red cards in ten top-flight appearances.
Luke Shaw is a doubt for Sunday and should he be unable to play VICTOR LINDELOF will start at left-back.
The Swede has averaged 0.6 fouls per game this season, committing at least one in eight of 14 league appearances.
He will have his work cut out opposing Chiedozie Ogbene. Since switching to right wing-back, Ogbene has completed 14 dribbles and drawn eight fouls in four games.
Each of his direct opponents in the last three games have committed at least one foul, Dan Burn committed two. So at 10/11 and 5/1 for 1+ FOULS and 2+ FOULS respectively, Lindelof’s prices appeal.
BuildABet @ 66/1
- Over 3.5 goals
- Ross Barkley to score anytime
- Kobbie Mainoo to be shown a card
Luton’s league games have averaged 3.40 games this term. Across their last ten, Edwards' side have scored 21 and conceded 22 so expect a goal laden clash this Sunday.
With goals expected, Ross Barkley’s price to net appeals, the midfielder tops the Hatters' charts for shots per game (2.30) and has netted against Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle this term.
Team news
Luton have no fresh injury concerns following the defeat to Sheffield United.
Marvelous Nakamba, Mads Andersen and recovering captain Tom Lockyer are all ruled out of Sunday’s game. Teden Mengi could return to the starting XI having started on the bench last weekend at the expense of Reece Burke.
Andros Townsend and Jordan Clarke are competing for a spot in the Hatters attack alongside Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo.
The visitors are without Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Anthony Martial, Lisandro Martinez and Mason Mount. Ten Hag is trying to be optimistic that Shaw can start at left-back but the defender is a doubt, if he fails a fitness test Lindelof should slot into the backline.
Predicted line-ups
Luton: Kaminski; Bell, Osho, Mengi; Ogbene, Barkley, Lokonga, Doughty; Clarke, Morris; Adebayo.
Manchester United: Onana; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Lindelof; Mainoo, Casemiro; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund.
Match facts
- Luton have lost nine of their last 10 league games against Manchester United, with the exception being a 1-1 draw the last time they faced them at Kenilworth Road (April 1992).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 12 meetings with Luton in all competitions (W10 D2), since a 2-1 loss at Kenilworth Road in March 1987.
- Only Tottenham (36 games) are on a longer scoring run in Premier League matches among current teams than Luton Town (11 games). However, the Hatters have ended on the losing side in five of those games (W4 D2).
- Manchester United have won their last 11 Premier League matches against newly promoted clubs, only conceding five goals in this run. It’s their best winning run against promoted sides since a 12-match run between 2011 and 2013 under Sir Alex Ferguson.
- Across their last seven Premier League matches, Luton are averaging 15.1 shots per game, in comparison to the 10.3 shots they had on average in their first 16 matches. The Hatters have also had 5.9 shots on target per game in those seven games, a big increase on the 2.6 per game they had in their first 16.
- In all competitions, Manchester United have won five of their last six games, including their last four in a row. The Red Devils last had a longer winning run between November 2022 and January 2023 (9 in a row).
- Erik ten Hag has won all nine of his Premier League games against newly promoted clubs, the best 100% win ratio against those sides of any manager in Premier League history. The only two managers to win their first 10 games against promoted clubs in the competition are José Mourinho (first 15) and Roberto Mancini (first 12).
- Carlton Morris has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any other Luton player this season (6 goals, 4 assists), with four of his goals coming via the penalty spot. He’s the first English player with four penalties in his debut Premier League campaign since Troy Deeney in 2015-16 (6).
- After failing to score in his first 14 Premier League appearances, Man Utd’s Rasmus Højlund has scored one goal in each of his last five matches. A goal in this game would see him become the youngest ever player to score in six in a row, with Joe Willock the current youngest (21 years, 272 days).
- Scott McTominay’s seven Premier League goals this season for Manchester United have been worth 12 points to his side, the most of any player for any team this season. He has only found the net in five games this season, but in three of those, his goal has been the winner.
Odds correct 1550 GMT (16/02/24)
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